Re: Texas Spring 2019
Posted: Thu May 30, 2019 8:51 am
We may get some monsoonal moisture next week. The ground surface down to about an inch in my yard has dried up with these relentless winds/breezes, warm temps, and dry weather the past couple weeks here. We could use another inch or two of moisture.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 300853
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
353 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A weakening frontal zone over Central TX is generating scattered
storms along outflows with isolated severe storms possible. CAPE
values of 2-3 kJ/kg and shear values below 40 knots where the leading
edge of activity exist leads only to a marginal threat for severe
for this morning. Later this afternoon, convergent boundaries and
increased CAPEs from daytime heating will lead to a slightly higher
potential for severe activity, mainly west of a Fredericksburg to
Carrizo Springs line through this evening. Temperatures this
afternoon should take a 2 or 3 degree step back from those of
Wednesday thanks mostly to a chaotic sky containing clouds at various
elevations. About half of the CAM models generate a small nighttime
storm complex and track it east toward the I-35 corridor overnight,
but timing and locations are still to random to warrant much more
than a 30 percent chance of rain. Higher PoPs will remain to the west
and southeast where surface convergence remains present along the
washing out frontal boundary. The elevated moist layer begins to lift
north Friday, keeping most of the deeper daytime convection north of
Hwy 90 for Friday, while temperatures still benefit from low level
instability and some spotty showers across most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
While models still suggest a fair amount of mid level moisture over
South-central TX for Saturday, the axis of highest moisture and
instability will have shifted well to the west to keep storm
initiation tied to the higher terrain over Mexico and West TX. At the
same time mid-level ridging amplifies over Central TX to reduce
instability aloft. Pwat values remain 1.5 to 2.0, so the chance of an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out, but coverage should be below 10
percent.
Sunday through Tuesday should be a fairly dormant pattern with
gradually decreasing Pwat values and mid to upper level ridging
continuing to build. The amplitude of the mid level ridging gets
sharp along a N-S axis on Tuesday which could signal the next
opportunity for the area to see a stormy pattern to follow. On the
west side of this trimming mid-level axis, tropical moisture is
depicted to collect over Mexico from both the Pacific an the Wrn
Gulf and push north into W TX. A broad monsoon-like pattern develops
over NM/W TX Wednesday, and this leaves the models breaking down
mid-level height fields into a broad upper troughing feature over the
NM/Mexico border by most accounts on late Wednesday. The ECM/CMC
solutions go a bit too aggressive with the ridge breakdown and would
expect to see the more moderate GFS solution. Would expect to see 2
to 3 days of at least 30 percent daytime PoPs and a curbing of max
temps by a couple degrees between Wednesday and next Saturday, from
this loose pattern. Will keep the Wed-Thu forecasts conservative with
mainly 20s and 30s on PoPs and wait for models to converge on more
mesoscale features.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 300853
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
353 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A weakening frontal zone over Central TX is generating scattered
storms along outflows with isolated severe storms possible. CAPE
values of 2-3 kJ/kg and shear values below 40 knots where the leading
edge of activity exist leads only to a marginal threat for severe
for this morning. Later this afternoon, convergent boundaries and
increased CAPEs from daytime heating will lead to a slightly higher
potential for severe activity, mainly west of a Fredericksburg to
Carrizo Springs line through this evening. Temperatures this
afternoon should take a 2 or 3 degree step back from those of
Wednesday thanks mostly to a chaotic sky containing clouds at various
elevations. About half of the CAM models generate a small nighttime
storm complex and track it east toward the I-35 corridor overnight,
but timing and locations are still to random to warrant much more
than a 30 percent chance of rain. Higher PoPs will remain to the west
and southeast where surface convergence remains present along the
washing out frontal boundary. The elevated moist layer begins to lift
north Friday, keeping most of the deeper daytime convection north of
Hwy 90 for Friday, while temperatures still benefit from low level
instability and some spotty showers across most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
While models still suggest a fair amount of mid level moisture over
South-central TX for Saturday, the axis of highest moisture and
instability will have shifted well to the west to keep storm
initiation tied to the higher terrain over Mexico and West TX. At the
same time mid-level ridging amplifies over Central TX to reduce
instability aloft. Pwat values remain 1.5 to 2.0, so the chance of an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out, but coverage should be below 10
percent.
Sunday through Tuesday should be a fairly dormant pattern with
gradually decreasing Pwat values and mid to upper level ridging
continuing to build. The amplitude of the mid level ridging gets
sharp along a N-S axis on Tuesday which could signal the next
opportunity for the area to see a stormy pattern to follow. On the
west side of this trimming mid-level axis, tropical moisture is
depicted to collect over Mexico from both the Pacific an the Wrn
Gulf and push north into W TX. A broad monsoon-like pattern develops
over NM/W TX Wednesday, and this leaves the models breaking down
mid-level height fields into a broad upper troughing feature over the
NM/Mexico border by most accounts on late Wednesday. The ECM/CMC
solutions go a bit too aggressive with the ridge breakdown and would
expect to see the more moderate GFS solution. Would expect to see 2
to 3 days of at least 30 percent daytime PoPs and a curbing of max
temps by a couple degrees between Wednesday and next Saturday, from
this loose pattern. Will keep the Wed-Thu forecasts conservative with
mainly 20s and 30s on PoPs and wait for models to converge on more
mesoscale features.
