Texas Summer 2019

[Brent]

Lot of storms for a 20 percent chance lol

Better chances in the days ahead

[TheProfessor]

Well it's June 1st, which means it's officially hurricane season. Everyone on the Texas coast should keep their eyes on the weather this week. The European ensembles want take a tropical system and round it up the coast later this week. SSTs are typically 27C in the western Gulf(and higher in some locations) so the waters are definitely warm enough for TC formation. Will definitely be interesting to watch if something does form and the placement of the high pressure that could steer a potential storm.

EDIT: Didn't realize this storm is already an invest.

[Ntxw]

Well it's June 1st, which means it's officially hurricane season. Everyone on the Texas coast should keep their eyes on the weather this week. The European ensembles want take a tropical system and round it up the coast later this week. SSTs are typically 27C in the western Gulf(and higher in some locations) so the waters are definitely warm enough for TC formation. Will definitely be interesting to watch if something does form and the placement of the high pressure that could steer a potential storm.

EDIT: Didn't realize this storm is already an invest.

This would be terrible. It would reshuffle the broad pattern, subsidence and then warm spell behind it. No thanks on Bill 2015 redo kicking off a 2 month dry spell.

[TheProfessor]

Well it's June 1st, which means it's officially hurricane season. Everyone on the Texas coast should keep their eyes on the weather this week. The European ensembles want take a tropical system and round it up the coast later this week. SSTs are typically 27C in the western Gulf(and higher in some locations) so the waters are definitely warm enough for TC formation. Will definitely be interesting to watch if something does form and the placement of the high pressure that could steer a potential storm.

EDIT: Didn't realize this storm is already an invest.

This would be terrible. It would reshuffle the broad pattern, subsidence and then warm spell behind it. No thanks on Bill 2015 redo kicking off a 2 month dry spell.

Yeah My parents live in New Orleans now so I'm quickly trying to get our hurricane kit complete(because they didn't do it while I was away at college.) before this storm could get close to us. Would rather this storm just get pushed west as a weak system.

[EnnisTx]

Watching the 2nd nice rain today. Almost 2 inches in the guage.

[Cpv17]

The circulation in the BOC is evident on satellite. Although it does appear on the broad side.

[Haris]

Weeklies are amazing!!! Hopefully this fella (invest) doesnt form!!!

[Haris]

Well it's June 1st, which means it's officially hurricane season. Everyone on the Texas coast should keep their eyes on the weather this week. The European ensembles want take a tropical system and round it up the coast later this week. SSTs are typically 27C in the western Gulf(and higher in some locations) so the waters are definitely warm enough for TC formation. Will definitely be interesting to watch if something does form and the placement of the high pressure that could steer a potential storm.

EDIT: Didn't realize this storm is already an invest.

This would be terrible. It would reshuffle the broad pattern, subsidence and then warm spell behind it. No thanks on Bill 2015 redo kicking off a 2 month dry spell.

Ntwx, that would only happen if this invest were to form into a TS right? Not Depression? Also, what happens if it still forms into a TD or TS but hits mX instead. WIll it still change the pattern for us?

[Brent]

Well it's June 1st, which means it's officially hurricane season. Everyone on the Texas coast should keep their eyes on the weather this week. The European ensembles want take a tropical system and round it up the coast later this week. SSTs are typically 27C in the western Gulf(and higher in some locations) so the waters are definitely warm enough for TC formation. Will definitely be interesting to watch if something does form and the placement of the high pressure that could steer a potential storm.

EDIT: Didn't realize this storm is already an invest.

This would be terrible. It would reshuffle the broad pattern, subsidence and then warm spell behind it. No thanks on Bill 2015 redo kicking off a 2 month dry spell.

Ntwx, that would only happen if this invest were to form into a TS right? Not Depression? Also, what happens if it still forms into a TD or TS but hits mX instead. WIll it still change the pattern for us?

I think as long as it doesn't recurve east of us we're good

[Ntxw]

Well it's June 1st, which means it's officially hurricane season. Everyone on the Texas coast should keep their eyes on the weather this week. The European ensembles want take a tropical system and round it up the coast later this week. SSTs are typically 27C in the western Gulf(and higher in some locations) so the waters are definitely warm enough for TC formation. Will definitely be interesting to watch if something does form and the placement of the high pressure that could steer a potential storm.

EDIT: Didn't realize this storm is already an invest.

This would be terrible. It would reshuffle the broad pattern, subsidence and then warm spell behind it. No thanks on Bill 2015 redo kicking off a 2 month dry spell.

Ntwx, that would only happen if this invest were to form into a TS right? Not Depression? Also, what happens if it still forms into a TD or TS but hits mX instead. WIll it still change the pattern for us?

A stronger system would generally hook up with the more broad pattern, amplifying the changes. It is kind of chicken or egg kind of thing. Plus a consolidated storm in the gulf would wound up lower level moisture that normally feeds summer rains and scours it out along with it. The key is not to change the 500mb pattern of trough west, ridge east. A decent tropical system that goes poleward weakens the eastern ridge, consequently changing it to ridge in the west/plains. It is a delicate seesaw balance.

It's a good rule of thumb that dry spells come after significant tropical systems on the Atlantic side. But it is not always 1 to 1 correlation depending on upper patterns.

[Texas Snowman]

After the big storms in North Texas last night, San Angelo is getting a taste of heavy early summer rainfall :

319
WGUS74 KSJT 021403
FFSSJT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
903 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

TXC451-021515-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190602T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tom Green TX-
903 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN TOM GREEN COUNTY...

At 858 AM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding for
numerous streets in and around San Angelo, with multiple water
rescues taking place. Two to four inches of rain have fallen and
additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the
warned area over the next two hours. Flash flooding is already
occurring and is expected to continue.

Some locations that will continue to experience flooding include...
San Angelo, Mereta, Veribest, Wall, O.c. Fisher Reservoir, Vancourt,
Lake Nasworthy, Goodfellow Air Force Base, Grape Creek and Harriet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 10055 3157 10053 3158 10012 3128 10012

$$

[lukem]

After the big storms in North Texas last night, San Angelo is getting a taste of heavy early summer rainfall :

319
WGUS74 KSJT 021403
FFSSJT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
903 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

TXC451-021515-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190602T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tom Green TX-
903 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN TOM GREEN COUNTY...

At 858 AM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding for
numerous streets in and around San Angelo, with multiple water
rescues taking place. Two to four inches of rain have fallen and
additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the
warned area over the next two hours. Flash flooding is already
occurring and is expected to continue.

Some locations that will continue to experience flooding include...
San Angelo, Mereta, Veribest, Wall, O.c. Fisher Reservoir, Vancourt,
Lake Nasworthy, Goodfellow Air Force Base, Grape Creek and Harriet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 10055 3157 10053 3158 10012 3128 10012

$$

Ivie is already over 70% full, and all that rain that has fallen over San Angelo will he heading down the Concho River. This is huge news for those of us in West Texas. I didn’t think these upper Colorado River lakes would ever fill up!

[Texas Snowman]

A good old fashioned summertime day out in the Trans Pecos with...flash flooding?!?

———-

WGUS54 KMAF 030028
FFWMAF
TXC043-243-377-030330-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FF.W.0016.190603T0028Z-190603T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
728 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Midland has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Western Brewster County in southwestern Texas...
Southeastern Jeff Davis County in southwestern Texas...
Northeastern Presidio County in southwestern Texas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two to three inches of
rain have already fallen and an additional one to two inches is
expected. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly or may
already be occurring.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Alpine, Marfa, Fort Davis, Bloys Camp, Alpine-Casparis Municipal
Airport, Davis Mountains State Park, McDonald Observatory, Camp
Mitre Peak, Marfa Municipal Airport, Black Mountain, Paisano Pass,
Indian Lodge, Fort Davis National Historical Site and Buffalo Trail
Scout Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 10391 3020 10346 3022 10444 3081 10444

$$

[Brent]

the Euro still shows whatever 91L is basically riding the coastline late Wednesday through early Friday... and while most of the state gets some rain the heaviest totals look to be up in flood plagued NE OK and Arkansas

[Lagreeneyes03]

Ahh summer! My favorite board! BRING ON THE HEAT!!!

EndlessSummer, SUMMERFOREVER

[gpsnowman]

Ahh summer! My favorite board! BRING ON THE HEAT!!!

EndlessSummer, SUMMERFOREVER

Booooo! Kidding aside, Wednesday is shaping up to be a soaker around here. Early tropical fun.

[Haris]

Ahh summer! My favorite board! BRING ON THE HEAT!!!

EndlessSummer, SUMMERFOREVER

[Brent]

Ahh summer! My favorite board! BRING ON THE HEAT!!!

EndlessSummer, SUMMERFOREVER

This thread needs a dislike button

[Lagreeneyes03]

Ahh summer! My favorite board! BRING ON THE HEAT!!!

EndlessSummer, SUMMERFOREVER

Booooo! Kidding aside, Wednesday is shaping up to be a soaker around here. Early tropical fun.

I could do without any more rain, my backyard doesn't have the best irrigation and is downhill, dirt has eroded from the yard through my back patio. Dog tracks mud in all the time... I just want a month of no rain.......

[gpsnowman]

Ahh summer! My favorite board! BRING ON THE HEAT!!!

EndlessSummer, SUMMERFOREVER

Booooo! Kidding aside, Wednesday is shaping up to be a soaker around here. Early tropical fun.

I could do without any more rain, my backyard doesn't have the best irrigation and is downhill, dirt has eroded from the yard through my back patio. Dog tracks mud in all the time... I just want a month of no rain.......

July and August will probably offer that if not sooner. Just saw some mid 90's forecasted for the weekend.