STORM2K

Hopefully no repeat of this Heat Indices! Enjoy the Summer temperatures my fellow Texas members!

boooooo

From the Weather Channel.

Speaks for itself. Might be the coolest summer since 2014.



CFSv2- All of this rain the plains has been getting means wet soils. Keeping any heat waves at bay. Revenge of Winter.

Ntxw wrote:Speaks for itself. Might be the coolest summer since 2014.

https://images2.imgbox.com/d6/ba/hpt4rG7H_o.gif

CFSv2- All of this rain the plains has been getting means wet soils. Keeping any heat waves at bay. Revenge of Winter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e2/71/FgTFW43q_o.gif

Not here. We had basically one bout of heavy rains for a few days. It was dry here before that and it’s been dry here after that as well.

Sorry for my language but --- Summer!

Here’s to a quick one. I’m ready for College Football and Hunting Season!!

#NeverSummerMoFos

Rgv20 wrote:Hopefully no repeat of this Heat Indices! Enjoy the Summer temperatures my fellow Texas members!

http://i68.tinypic.com/2qapdlx.png

You couldn’t pay me a crapload of money to live where you do. NOT. A. CHANCE. IN. HELL!

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:

Rgv20 wrote:Hopefully no repeat of this Heat Indices! Enjoy the Summer temperatures my fellow Texas members!

http://i68.tinypic.com/2qapdlx.png

You couldn’t pay me a crapload of money to live where you do. NOT. A. CHANCE. IN. HELL!

LOL I can barely tolerate Dallas sometimes

daily SOI is well into negative territory. It has been so since about the last week of the month. Expect early June to be disturbed by rainfall. No sign yet of a significant heat dome.

Ntxw wrote:daily SOI is well into negative territory. It has been so since about the last week of the month. Expect early June to be disturbed by rainfall. No sign yet of a significant heat dome.

Yeah next week is looking pretty wet. A surge of tropical moisture, currently the area of disturbed weather across Central America, will be pushing northward across the western Gulf. This is then forecast to interact with the next slow-moving southern stream disturbance helping to bring us several days of enhanced rain chances. Bring it on...the longer we can go without any major heat, the better off we'll be!

South Texas Storms wrote:

Ntxw wrote:daily SOI is well into negative territory. It has been so since about the last week of the month. Expect early June to be disturbed by rainfall. No sign yet of a significant heat dome.

Yeah next week is looking pretty wet. A surge of tropical moisture, currently the area of disturbed weather across Central America, will be pushing northward across the western Gulf. This is then forecast to interact with the next slow-moving southern stream disturbance helping to bring us several days of enhanced rain chances. Bring it on...the longer we can go without any major heat, the better off we'll be!

Usually, if you can get a pattern like this to last into mid-July, it completely erases the August doldrums of excessive heat.

2007, it lasted all Summer and then September went cool quickly.

The US (especially the middle of the country) has very wet soil content right now. It's going to be hard large scale to really get any heat waves going nationally. Even the desert southwest is not all that hot. The signs are there this should be a uniquely cool summer due to feedback effects. Summer, unlike winter, is a much easier thing to forecast trend wise. It comes down to simply two things, does it rain and is there feedback?

Phoenix, a good indicator of the Sonoran Ridge strength, for May is running -6F below normal!

South Texas Storms wrote:

Ntxw wrote:daily SOI is well into negative territory. It has been so since about the last week of the month. Expect early June to be disturbed by rainfall. No sign yet of a significant heat dome.

Yeah next week is looking pretty wet. A surge of tropical moisture, currently the area of disturbed weather across Central America, will be pushing northward across the western Gulf. This is then forecast to interact with the next slow-moving southern stream disturbance helping to bring us several days of enhanced rain chances. Bring it on...the longer we can go without any major heat, the better off we'll be!

Our local branch of the NWS mentioned staving off the 100s this morning. Wish we could stave it off all Summer!

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
401 AM CDT Fri May 31 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Half the CAMs models had poorly initialized convection at the time of
forecast composition, with blended guidances showing a higher overall
PoP for today. Thus subsequent rapid refresh runs may tell a better
story of how much convection can be expected and possibly give better
clues on timing as well. Moving back out to the synoptic scale view,
the 700 mb ridge axis is still anticipated to amplify NW and inland
over TX from the NW Gulf, and this should suppress deeper convection
slightly to make more of the convection for today diurnal and short-
lived with reduced chances of multicell clusters. With pockets of 1.5
plus Pwat values scattered across South-central TX, will maybe
leave it for a near dawn update or the daytime shift to reduce
afternoon rain chances as more data arrives to confirm the buildup
of a more stable air regime over localized areas. Plenty of
clouds should be present to curb high temps to near or just under
daytime norms for the end of May, and the two small storm
complexes over currently TX do not look capable of producing the
typical large mcs cirrus shields to suppress mid-morning low cloud
development. A small pocket of destabilized low level air over
the southern Edwards Plateau seems to confirm the broader
stabilizing trend with the developing convection only lasting 30
minutes to 1 hour before dissipating again. With daytime heating
to arrive, the area along the Rio Grande will be the most likely
area where a brief strong storm could form from daytime heating
with rain chances decreasing dramatically by sunset.

Continue ridging aloft over TX means a humid and stable day is
expected for Jun 1 with not much relief from daytime breezes. Heat
indices could reach triple digits over a few areas south of Hwy 90,
while ambient temps remain close to climatological daytime normals.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Humid air with light to moderate surface winds will continue to add
to outdoor discomfort through the rest of the weekend. Monday and
Tuesday were, in yesterday`s forecast, expected to be mostly stable
at least over areas east of Hwy 83. This has changed to allow for
more isolated mainly diurnal convection as far east as the Hwy 281
corridor Monday, and expanded east to the entire forecast area by
daytime Tuesday. The main influence to this change in forecast is the
broad area of disturbed tropical weather concentrated over the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec and spilling over into Srn Gulf/Ern Pac. This
broadly unstable area is now forecast to chisel away at the SW
periphery of the ridge and increase Pwat values over South TX to
increase chances for air mass convection, or also described as garden
variety storms. Multiple days of enhanced rain chances start mainly
Tuesday and continue through next Friday as the mid level ridging
quickly devolves into broad troughing over the Srn Plains on
Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will probably become a concern at
some point, but the synoptic scale models will need more runs and
pattern consistency to be established before these concerns can be
clarified. While the concern is not great news for those already having
experienced flood impacts over the late spring, the forecast is great
news for those wanting to delay the onset of daily highs approaching
triple digits.

It is now past 00Z on June 1st. In we go!

Ntxw wrote:The US (especially the middle of the country) has very wet soil content right now. It's going to be hard large scale to really get any heat waves going nationally. Even the desert southwest is not all that hot. The signs are there this should be a uniquely cool summer due to feedback effects. Summer, unlike winter, is a much easier thing to forecast trend wise. It comes down to simply two things, does it rain and is there feedback?

Phoenix, a good indicator of the Sonoran Ridge strength, for May is running -6F below normal!

There are several Colorado ski areas with lifts still running on the weekends.

And it snowed the other day at the Grand Canyon!!!!!!!

Happy summer Storm2kers. It is here, the worst season of all but also one of the most fun. Vacations, baseball, kids out of school, and most importantly, no school zones. Only a few more weeks and the days will be shorter until winter. Hang in there folks.

gpsnowman wrote:Happy summer Storm2kers. It is here, the worst season of all but also one of the most fun. Vacations, baseball, kids out of school, and most importantly, no school zones. Only a few more weeks and the days will be shorter until winter. Hang in there folks.

Amen. I always take the quiet months to also improve my knowledge and learn more meteorology and watching tutorials.

Summer is actually my favorite season lol complete opposite from most on here.

The cell in Parker County looks like it could sweep through some of the metro soon.

gpsnowman wrote:The cell in Parker County looks like it could sweep through some of the metro soon.

These storms are very outflow dominant. It definitely reminds me of summer. Sometimes watching the randomness and chaos of summer storms on radar can be very enjoyable with all of the boundary interactions.