STORM2K

I did a little research this morning about August. If the current August mean for Austin, which is 90.1 degrees, stays around that figure ... it will be the second warmest August on record for Austin. Of course 2011 was the worst and warmest ever.

South Texas Storms wrote:

Portastorm wrote:

Brent wrote:well now the models get into the Gulf, some of the ensembles are even into Louisiana now, still may not help us but how far west can it go? If it misses the east coast weakness there seems to be a lot of ridging

looking at the Euro its even further west now though it still recurves into the Panhandle(like Michael did)

The Death Ridge of High Pressure over us will not be going anywhere anytime soon. Very hard to see anything tropical moving west past NOLA. In fact, should Dorian move as far west as NOLA (which to my knowledge no model whatsoever is showing at this time), it would pump the Death Ridge even more over us. Ugh. Don't want to think about that.

This is getting downright depressing. Like you mentioned earlier, this has been one of the most horrible weather months we've had in quite some time...

Latest Euro shows much of the state continuing to see 100s through the first week of September.

I don't care what the temp is, I'm putting out my Fall and Halloween stuff this weekend!

The south and west trends definitely have my eyes open today. Though none of the deterministic models show Dorian getting this far west(except the Icon) there is some support on the ensembles that it could be possible. The worst case scenario for me would be a storm that goes about 20 miles west of NOLA, which doesn't seem very likely right now, but also can't completely be ruled out. It's definitely something my eyes will be glued to the next week or so.

1 day until a hot, sultry tailgate in Aggieland. Ours will be brought to you by Gold Bond and Woodford Reserve.

Someone turn on the AC already!

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:1 day until a hot, sultry tailgate in Aggieland. Ours will be brought to you by Gold Bond and Woodford Reserve.

Someone turn on the AC already!

Ha ha! Don't melt out there. Poor Bobcats.

Yeah, the heat index is probably going to be around 105 Saturday night at 7 at DKR. Ugh.

SoupBone wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:

Portastorm wrote:
The Death Ridge of High Pressure over us will not be going anywhere anytime soon. Very hard to see anything tropical moving west past NOLA. In fact, should Dorian move as far west as NOLA (which to my knowledge no model whatsoever is showing at this time), it would pump the Death Ridge even more over us. Ugh. Don't want to think about that.

This is getting downright depressing. Like you mentioned earlier, this has been one of the most horrible weather months we've had in quite some time...

Latest Euro shows much of the state continuing to see 100s through the first week of September.

I don't care what the temp is, I'm putting out my Fall and Halloween stuff this weekend!

We have a neighbor down the next street over who already has his Halloween decorations setup out in his yard. He's notorious for over-the-top Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas decorations, and his yard is really small.lol He tries to pack in more and more in this tiny front yard space. Interesting to see.lol Sometimes he also has lots of cars parked along the street near his house during a big football game. Life of the party!lol

weatherdude1108 wrote:

SoupBone wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:
This is getting downright depressing. Like you mentioned earlier, this has been one of the most horrible weather months we've had in quite some time...

Latest Euro shows much of the state continuing to see 100s through the first week of September.

I don't care what the temp is, I'm putting out my Fall and Halloween stuff this weekend!

We have a neighbor down the next street over who already has his Halloween decorations setup out in his yard. He's notorious for over-the-top Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas decorations, and his yard is really small.lol He tries to pack in more and more in this tiny front yard space. Interesting to see.lol Sometimes he also has lots of cars parked along the street near his house during a big football game. Life of the party!lol

I'm mostly joking, it will likely be the weekend following, but I'm definitely ready. Fall through New Years is my absolute favorite time of the year.

SoupBone wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

SoupBone wrote:

I don't care what the temp is, I'm putting out my Fall and Halloween stuff this weekend!

We have a neighbor down the next street over who already has his Halloween decorations setup out in his yard. He's notorious for over-the-top Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas decorations, and his yard is really small.lol He tries to pack in more and more in this tiny front yard space. Interesting to see.lol Sometimes he also has lots of cars parked along the street near his house during a big football game. Life of the party!lol

I'm mostly joking, it will likely be the weekend following, but I'm definitely ready. Fall through New Years is my absolute favorite time of the year.

Yeah.lol, my first thought was way too early for decorations, but then again it's almost September, and maybe it'll feel cooler with the decorations.lol Anything better than 90s and 100s. The local weather guy said we may be done with the 100s. I'll believe that when I feel it, especially with Dorian's potential influence on the Ridge O' Misery.

We keep our house at 72 during the day and 68 at night for sleeping. I may have to soon switch to 68 whenever we are home to make it feel more fall-like, especially if the death ridge comes back again. I was hoping for a bit more cool weather for Labor Day.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

SoupBone wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:
We have a neighbor down the next street over who already has his Halloween decorations setup out in his yard. He's notorious for over-the-top Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas decorations, and his yard is really small.lol He tries to pack in more and more in this tiny front yard space. Interesting to see.lol Sometimes he also has lots of cars parked along the street near his house during a big football game. Life of the party!lol

I'm mostly joking, it will likely be the weekend following, but I'm definitely ready. Fall through New Years is my absolute favorite time of the year.

Yeah.lol, my first thought was way too early for decorations, but then again it's almost September, and maybe it'll feel cooler with the decorations.lol Anything better than 90s and 100s. The local weather guy said we may be done with the 100s. I'll believe that when I feel it, especially with Dorian's potential influence on the Ridge O' Misery.

I think our TV met jinxed it the other day when he said we were done

Hope he's right but unfortunately not convinced anymore

Just hopefully Dorian doesn't make the ridge worse, I guess that's all we can hope for here

Our Labor Day weekend upper 60's upper 80's has died an early death and headed to high pressure heaven. Or hell, whichever way is upward.

gpsnowman wrote:Our Labor Day weekend upper 60's upper 80's has died an early death and headed to high pressure heaven. Or hell, whichever way is upward.

we had our first fantasy land tease of something different and poof

Guess we should get used to it

rwfromkansas wrote:We keep our house at 72 during the day and 68 at night for sleeping. I may have to soon switch to 68 whenever we are home to make it feel more fall-like, especially if the death ridge comes back again. I was hoping for a bit more cool weather for Labor Day.

Your ac is powerful enough to cool the house down to 72 when it’s 100 outside? Man, what kinda ac do you have? Sign me up! Lol

TheProfessor wrote:The south and west trends definitely have my eyes open today. Though none of the deterministic models show Dorian getting this far west(except the Icon) there is some support on the ensembles that it could be possible. The worst case scenario for me would be a storm that goes about 20 miles west of NOLA, which doesn't seem very likely right now, but also can't completely be ruled out. It's definitely something my eyes will be glued to the next week or so.

I actually think this could come your way. I’d definitely watch it closely.

South Texas Storms wrote:

Portastorm wrote:

Brent wrote:well now the models get into the Gulf, some of the ensembles are even into Louisiana now, still may not help us but how far west can it go? If it misses the east coast weakness there seems to be a lot of ridging

looking at the Euro its even further west now though it still recurves into the Panhandle(like Michael did)

The Death Ridge of High Pressure over us will not be going anywhere anytime soon. Very hard to see anything tropical moving west past NOLA. In fact, should Dorian move as far west as NOLA (which to my knowledge no model whatsoever is showing at this time), it would pump the Death Ridge even more over us. Ugh. Don't want to think about that.

This is getting downright depressing. Like you mentioned earlier, this has been one of the most horrible weather months we've had in quite some time...

Latest Euro shows much of the state continuing to see 100s through the first week of September.

Could we be looking at the beginning of a significant drought? El Niño is giving away to a La Niña I heard.

Portastorm wrote:

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:1 day until a hot, sultry tailgate in Aggieland. Ours will be brought to you by Gold Bond and Woodford Reserve.

Someone turn on the AC already!

Ha ha! Don't melt out there. Poor Bobcats.

Yeah, the heat index is probably going to be around 105 Saturday night at 7 at DKR. Ugh.

Lawdy. That’s some swampy beer drinking weather

Newer house with radiant barrier etc. It definitely struggles if you try to go to less than 70 with 100 outside though. Just runs too much.

Cpv17 wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:We keep our house at 72 during the day and 68 at night for sleeping. I may have to soon switch to 68 whenever we are home to make it feel more fall-like, especially if the death ridge comes back again. I was hoping for a bit more cool weather for Labor Day.

Your ac is powerful enough to cool the house down to 72 when it’s 100 outside? Man, what kinda ac do you have? Sign me up! Lol

EWX already hinting at Dorian throwing a wrench in their forecast. Same ole' rut.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 290819
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
319 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Broad high pressure will maintain an extent from the Eastern Pacific
to much of TX to keep the heat turned up in the short term. Despite
the feeble attempts of the 18Z/00Z GFS model runs to offer a nice
taste of drought relief for today, the heat and mostly dry weather
continues. The earlier 12Z GFS run and the past couple ECM runs are
more in tune with reality and do not show the small convective
feedback feature over the Edwards Plateau at initialization time that
caused the recent GFS and GFS MOS numbers to spike for rain chances
today into Friday. The NAM and GFS both indicate a surge in PWAT
values for today with a few spots over 2 inches, and this is
reflected well in the low level CIRA Layer PWAT imagery. Thus we
expect a similar day of mostly isolated afternoon convection and no
organized storms. This would mean less than 5 percent coverage at 00z
and a partly cloudy and warm night to follow. While Friday`s set-up
is less favorable in terms of pooled moisture versus today, the H7
wind flow is more favorable with anticyclonic flow today being
replaced with a broad cyclonic flow pattern Friday. Thus will
maintain similar PoPs and over similar locations--generally the N/E
half of our CWA. High temps today and Friday are expected to shave a
degree or two off those from Thursday, but in the absence of an
outflow boundary, the thick humid air will not feel much different.
We`ll continue to show a slow trend of heat indices backing farther
away from heat advisory criteria, but triple digit heat indices don`t
look to be going away anytime soon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Model consensus develops an organized storm complex over the Central
Plains this evening with a bit of vorticity holding it together as
the impulse moves slowly south toward TX through Friday night. The
GFS and NAM give some hints of increased rain chances for Saturday
morning while the ECM largely dismisses it. Given elevated PWAT
values shown to be reinforced by this weakening system upstream from
Central TX, will lean for the slightly wetter side of guidances and
keep another day of mostly isolated daytime convection.

Sunday through Monday look to be the most stable days of the week
with broader mid level ridge pattern showing an axis extending
farther east into AR. By mid-week an upper level weakness is depicted
by the GFS while the ECM looks more stable. This pattern is in
reduced confidence as the uncertain impacts of Dorian well to the
east could change the shape of the subsidence pattern to the west of
the system over the Gulf. Thus will give in mostly slight chance
PoPs in the latter part of the extended forecast. Temp forecasts
through the period will continue to be a reflection of blended
guidances offset slightly by persistence with no significant
influence baked in from rain chances.

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:

Portastorm wrote:
The Death Ridge of High Pressure over us will not be going anywhere anytime soon. Very hard to see anything tropical moving west past NOLA. In fact, should Dorian move as far west as NOLA (which to my knowledge no model whatsoever is showing at this time), it would pump the Death Ridge even more over us. Ugh. Don't want to think about that.

This is getting downright depressing. Like you mentioned earlier, this has been one of the most horrible weather months we've had in quite some time...

Latest Euro shows much of the state continuing to see 100s through the first week of September.

Could we be looking at the beginning of a significant drought? El Niño is giving away to a La Niña I heard.

Wrong, El Nino has giving way to ENSO Neutral which is expect to carry thru Winter 2019/2020. Beyond that it's anyones guess since it could go El or La heading into Spring or early Summer.

I expect this Winter to be typical across NTX, warmer across the Southern half of the state.

Dorian is now expect to be a Major Hurricane (3) and impact the eastern Florida coast......