STORM2K

NWS FTW 9/29/19

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/
/Friday through Wednesday/

North Texas will continue to be on the eastern periphery of
stronger mid level ridging on Friday. There is decent consensus in
the model guidance that a complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing
across parts of Oklahoma early Friday morning as a mid level
shortwave swings through the Ozarks. This complex should initially
dive southward aided by 20-30 kt of northerly flow at 500 mb and
modest low level inflow around 20 kt. We should initially be dry
areawide Friday morning, but there is some indication that the
complex will make it across the Red River by midday or so,
although in a weakened state. Low level flow will back to the east
and weaken to around 10 kt as the upper shortwave pulls farther
east away from the region. For now, we`ll have some 20-30% PoPs
mainly along and north of I-20, but these may need to be raised.

On Saturday, the ridging to the west will push back a little
farther into our area and will likely mark the beginning of a drier
and warmer few days. We`ll maintain some 20% PoPs across the
region Saturday afternoon on the off chance that some weak lift
and daytime heating can kick off a few isolated storms, but
otherwise it should be a mostly dry day.

With the ridge amplifying across Texas Sunday into early next
week, we`ll keep the forecast dry with temperatures gradually
warming back into the upper 90s. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble
guidance have trended considerably warmer through next week with
the EC 500 mb heights ramping back up to 596 dm over the Southern
Plains by Thursday. So, we may not be totally done with the 100
degree heat just yet.

Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

South Texas Storms wrote:Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

Interesting that you would bring this up, STS. I noticed it as well. The Ukie is also showing some kind of disturbance in the WGOM by later next week. I also saw Bastardi mentioning it this morning on social media. Those of us in the southern, baked half of Texas could only hope for a tropical disturbance to come our way. Knowing our luck, the damn Death Ridge will shunt whatever is there far enough south into Mexico that we'll barely get a cumulus cloud of it.

Portastorm wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

Interesting that you would bring this up, STS. I noticed it as well. The Ukie is also showing some kind of disturbance in the WGOM by later next week. I also saw Bastardi mentioning it this morning on social media. Those of us in the southern, baked half of Texas could only hope for a tropical disturbance to come our way. Knowing our luck, the damn Death Ridge will shunt whatever is there far enough south into Mexico that we'll barely get a cumulus cloud of it.

Portastorm knows the power of the RIDGE OF DEATH!


I think it was Tropical Storm Don in 2011 that was a victim of immolation over Texas at landfall, by the RIDGE OF DEATH.

dhweather wrote:

Portastorm wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

Interesting that you would bring this up, STS. I noticed it as well. The Ukie is also showing some kind of disturbance in the WGOM by later next week. I also saw Bastardi mentioning it this morning on social media. Those of us in the southern, baked half of Texas could only hope for a tropical disturbance to come our way. Knowing our luck, the damn Death Ridge will shunt whatever is there far enough south into Mexico that we'll barely get a cumulus cloud of it.

Portastorm knows the power of the RIDGE OF DEATH!


I think it was Tropical Storm Don in 2011 that was a victim of immolation over Texas at landfall, by the RIDGE OF DEATH.

Screw your stupid ridge.

Cpv17 wrote:

dhweather wrote:

Portastorm wrote:
Interesting that you would bring this up, STS. I noticed it as well. The Ukie is also showing some kind of disturbance in the WGOM by later next week. I also saw Bastardi mentioning it this morning on social media. Those of us in the southern, baked half of Texas could only hope for a tropical disturbance to come our way. Knowing our luck, the damn Death Ridge will shunt whatever is there far enough south into Mexico that we'll barely get a cumulus cloud of it.

Portastorm knows the power of the RIDGE OF DEATH!


I think it was Tropical Storm Don in 2011 that was a victim of immolation over Texas at landfall, by the RIDGE OF DEATH.

Screw your stupid ridge.

That was the most sorry excuse for a hurricane. Hurricane Don and Ridge of Death on a collision course. Upon impact, Don goes POOOOOF, into thin air, being sucked into the ridge abyss.

So depressing. Bad memories.

Thanks for bringing that up dhweather!lol

I'm so OVER this Summer!

I found a site that shows the location of National Weather Service weather stations, with pics of the stations. Camp Mabry is not far off the highway, but it is surrounded by trees and grass. Looks like it's on base, well protected.


NWS Stations Site
https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/

KATT (Camp Mabry Weather Station)
https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/sit ... nformation

South Texas Storms wrote:Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I have been watching this potential on the models, this mornings ensembles of the 12zCMC and ECMWF show a decent signal of a disturbance spinning up. Hopefully most of South Texas can get some Rains out of this!

Woooooo it’s a hot whore out here in Aggieland today.

I bought two portacools to chill the tailgate.

Well if this verifies, we will have a couple more systems to watch.

Rgv20 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I have been watching this potential on the models, this mornings ensembles of the 12zCMC and ECMWF show a decent signal of a disturbance spinning up. Hopefully most of South Texas can get some Rains out of this!

Yep they actually trended more bullish and farther north. Bring on the rain!

dhweather wrote:Well if this verifies, we will have a couple more systems to watch.


https://images2.imgbox.com/83/de/41S7wZOc_o.png

that Euro run was crazy, Dorian tries to pull a Harvey over Florida

oh and I didn't live here then, but I remember Don 2011 falling apart in like 6 hours there was barely even rainfall when the NHC killed it It was one of the most rapid collapses of a cyclone ever

South Texas Storms wrote:

Rgv20 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I have been watching this potential on the models, this mornings ensembles of the 12zCMC and ECMWF show a decent signal of a disturbance spinning up. Hopefully most of South Texas can get some Rains out of this!

Yep they actually trended more bullish and farther north. Bring on the rain!

The Euro barely has anything except for Deep South TX. Brownsville could get something.

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:

Rgv20 wrote:
I have been watching this potential on the models, this mornings ensembles of the 12zCMC and ECMWF show a decent signal of a disturbance spinning up. Hopefully most of South Texas can get some Rains out of this!

Yep they actually trended more bullish and farther north. Bring on the rain!

The Euro barely has anything except for Deep South TX. Brownsville could get something.

Latest Euro Ensemble has 1-3 inches along and south of IH-10 over the next 10 days.

Upper 90's creeping into forecast for next week. Summer never surrenders easily.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

dhweather wrote:
Portastorm knows the power of the RIDGE OF DEATH!


I think it was Tropical Storm Don in 2011 that was a victim of immolation over Texas at landfall, by the RIDGE OF DEATH.

Screw your stupid ridge.

That was the most sorry excuse for a hurricane. Hurricane Don and Ridge of Death on a collision course. Upon impact, Don goes POOOOOF, into thin air, being sucked into the ridge abyss.

So depressing. Bad memories.

Thanks for bringing that up dhweather!lol

I'm so OVER this Summer!

Before I was a member here, I recall reading about the "Ridge of Death" two years ago. While it may look like it's going to last forever right now, many in Texas two years ago were saying that the ridge was going to block everything. It's interesting how Harvey was defeated by the "Ridge of Death." Oh wait...

South Texas Storms wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:
Yep they actually trended more bullish and farther north. Bring on the rain!

The Euro barely has anything except for Deep South TX. Brownsville could get something.

Latest Euro Ensemble has 1-3 inches along and south of IH-10 over the next 10 days.

Hell I’ll take whatever I can get these days. The op sure didn’t show that.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
Screw your stupid ridge.

That was the most sorry excuse for a hurricane. Hurricane Don and Ridge of Death on a collision course. Upon impact, Don goes POOOOOF, into thin air, being sucked into the ridge abyss.

So depressing. Bad memories.

Thanks for bringing that up dhweather!lol

I'm so OVER this Summer!

Before I was a member here, I recall reading about the "Ridge of Death" two years ago. While it may look like it's going to last forever right now, many in Texas two years ago were saying that the ridge was going to block everything. It's interesting how Harvey was defeated by the "Ridge of Death." Oh wait...

The ridge of death will most likely end in a flood. It’s feast or famine here in Texas. The weather here is on drugs.

Tejas89 wrote:Upper 90's creeping into forecast for next week. Summer never surrenders easily.

Sucks

98 today, kind of surprising

What happened to all the rain this week

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

dhweather wrote:
Portastorm knows the power of the RIDGE OF DEATH!


I think it was Tropical Storm Don in 2011 that was a victim of immolation over Texas at landfall, by the RIDGE OF DEATH.

Screw your stupid ridge.

That was the most sorry excuse for a hurricane. Hurricane Don and Ridge of Death on a collision course. Upon impact, Don goes POOOOOF, into thin air, being sucked into the ridge abyss.

So depressing. Bad memories.

Thanks for bringing that up dhweather!lol

I'm so OVER this Summer!

Haha! I;m cracking up over here. Did Dan the Death Ridge really kill Don the Hurricane?