STORM2K

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms will occur this evening into the overnight
period across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks with strong
tornadoes, wind damage and large hail possible.

...Southern Plains...
A severe weather outbreak continues across parts of the southern
Plains. Although the tornado threat across Oklahoma has decreased, a
discrete tornadic supercell is still ongoing in northwest Texas.
This storm will track east-northeastward toward the Wichita Falls
vicinity and into southwest Oklahoma over the next couple of hours
where multiple strong tornadoes will be possible. The High risk has
been left along this narrow corridor from northwest Texas and
southwest Oklahoma to account for this heightened potential.

Further north, the latest radar imagery shows a southwest to
northeast line of strong to severe thunderstorms located along a
sharply defined warm front from western Oklahoma into northeastern
Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. A moist and unstable airmass is
located south of the front across southern Oklahoma extending
southwestward into west Texas where strong instability is located.
In Oklahoma, cells have stayed mostly on the northern edge of the
instability near the front with limited development in the
instability max. This combined with a lot of cell interaction has
caused the tornado threat to decrease early this evening. As the
low-level jet strengthens during the mid to late evening, a squall
line is expected to organize and move eastward across central and
southern Oklahoma. Although supercells with tornadoes may still
occur across parts of southwest Oklahoma, QLCS tornadoes and
significant wind gusts above 70 kt is expected to become the more
dominant threat. Very large hail will also be possible with the more
intense cells. The High risk has been dropped across western and
central Oklahoma where a high-end tornado potential appears to have
diminished.

Further southwest into northwest and west-central Texas, a very
unstable airmass is in place. Discrete supercells are located along
the western edge of the strongest instability. These storms will
continue to have a tornado threat this evening as the low-level jet
becomes more focused. Very large hail and wind damage will also be
possible. The threat is expected to transition to mostly wind damage
and hail later this evening.

..Broyles.. 05/21/2019

Tornado Warning
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1049 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKC021-041-210430-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190521T0430Z/
Delaware OK-Cherokee OK-
1049 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LEACH...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

At 1048 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Leach, moving northeast at 45 mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for Leach! This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay... Colcord...
Kansas... Oaks...
Leach... Twin Oaks...
Dodge... Lake Eucha State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.