Texas Fall 2019

[weatherdude1108]

Ah, well, MAYBE we're getting somewhere(?). I know I'm wishcasting.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 032011
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
311 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Little change in the forecast can be expected across most of south
central Texas through tomorrow night. We are seeing a few showers
develop near the Texas coast this afternoon as increased moisture
associated with recently named Tropical Storm Fernand moves inland.
Given the current forecast track for Fernand, no direct impacts or
hazardous weather conditions are expected across south central Texas.

For the remainder of today, it appears the better chance for
convection will remain along the coast. For now, we will keep the
forecast dry for all areas through this evening. However, as we head
into the overnight hours, a slow but steady increase in moisture
could lead to a few showers across portions of the Rio Grande plains
and coastal plains. We will mention a low chance (20%) for the
southern portions of Maverick and Dimmit counties for the early
morning hours on Wednesday. With higher moisture levels creeping
northward tomorrow, low rain chances continue for areas south of a
Del Rio to Pearsall line. Elsewhere, look for another day of above
normal temperatures across south central Texas with highs in the
lower 90s to near 100.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
We will keep a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast for the Rio Grande plains from Eagle Pass southward on
Thursday as we should still see enough moisture to aid in shower and
thunderstorm development. Dry and hot weather is anticipated
elsewhere on Thursday as surface winds trend to a more southeasterly
direction.

The forecast for Friday through the upcoming weekend still appears
dry with above normal temperatures across all of south central Texas.
With low-level winds remaining from the southeast, our humidity
levels will begin to increase, leading to an increase in heat index
values. As of now, it appears we should remain below Advisory levels,
but could get close in a few spots east of I-35.

A weakening of the persistent mid and upper level ridge currently
anchored near the 4-corners region may allow for some isolated
thunderstorm development Monday across the coastal plains, with
activity possibly spreading farther northwest into the I-35 and Hill
Country on Tuesday.

[CaptinCrunch]

Am I missing something, or haven’t been paying attention? Our local mets keeps talking about the onset of La Niña and an upcoming warm and dry fall due to La Niña. The last I saw we were in ENSO neutral with a low chance of La Niña forming. Did I miss something?

Your not missing a thing, the loco met's are....

We have moved into ENSO Neutral and it should continue thru Winter. I think your local Met's are looking at the CPC outlook which is calling for a warmer/drier Fall and making the comparison to what you typically see heading into a La Nina. ENSO is more of less the middle ground between the two, and can reflect both El & La through out the Fall/Winter season, which makes ENSO winters IMO harder to nail down as what to expect.

Last 2 ENSO Fall/Winter NTX (DFW)

ENSO Fall 2012-September had 6 of the first 7 days @ or over 100
ENSO Fall 2013-September had 4 of the first 7 days @ or over 100

The difference was ENSO Fall 2012 stayed warmer than average, which lead into a warmer than average 2012/13 Winter with slightly above avg precip. (Winter Canceled)
ENSO Fall 2013 started off warmer than average, but dipped to average for October and below average in November. That continued in ENSO 2013/14 Winter with colder than average temps and slighty below average precip, and DFW airport had recorded snowfall in both Dec, and Feb.

So let's hope ENSO season is more like 2013/14

One more thing I have noticed going back to 1950, more times than not El Nino follows ENSO Neutral, and there have been several El Nino/ENSO/El Nino back to back to back years.

[captainbarbossa19]

I finally got part of my grass cut yesterday. It seemed like the rain kept going at my location all last month. I wish I could share all the rain with everyone here. On a different note, even though Fernand is heading towards Mexico, I am not sure that Texas is finished with tropical threats yet.

[Brent]

I finally got part of my grass cut yesterday. It seemed like the rain kept going at my location all last month. I wish I could share all the rain with everyone here. On a different note, even though Fernand is heading towards Mexico, I am not sure that Texas is finished with tropical threats yet.

hopefully we'll start seeing some EPAC recurves soon even if we can't get a storm from the east

[Yukon Cornelius]

Am I missing something, or haven’t been paying attention? Our local mets keeps talking about the onset of La Niña and an upcoming warm and dry fall due to La Niña. The last I saw we were in ENSO neutral with a low chance of La Niña forming. Did I miss something?

Your not missing a thing, the loco met's are....

We have moved into ENSO Neutral and it should continue thru Winter. I think your local Met's are looking at the CPC outlook which is calling for a warmer/drier Fall and making the comparison to what you typically see heading into a La Nina. ENSO is more of less the middle ground between the two, and can reflect both El & La through out the Fall/Winter season, which makes ENSO winters IMO harder to nail down as what to expect.

Last 2 ENSO Fall/Winter NTX (DFW)

ENSO Fall 2012-September had 6 of the first 7 days @ or over 100
ENSO Fall 2013-September had 4 of the first 7 days @ or over 100

The difference was ENSO Fall 2012 stayed warmer than average, which lead into a warmer than average 2012/13 Winter with slightly above avg precip. (Winter Canceled)
ENSO Fall 2013 started off warmer than average, but dipped to average for October and below average in November. That continued in ENSO 2013/14 Winter with colder than average temps and slighty below average precip, and DFW airport had recorded snowfall in both Dec, and Feb.

So let's hope ENSO season is more like 2013/14

One more thing I have noticed going back to 1950, more times than not El Nino follows ENSO Neutral, and there have been several El Nino/ENSO/El Nino back to back to back years.

Awesome breakdown! I appreciate it. I wish these Mets would explain themselves a little more instead of “its La Niña time! Hot and Dry!”.

[Ntxw]

Nothing new to add at this time. Kind of a stuck pattern with the Atlantic, maybe late September Fall will come?

[Portastorm]

I finally got part of my grass cut yesterday. It seemed like the rain kept going at my location all last month. I wish I could share all the rain with everyone here. On a different note, even though Fernand is heading towards Mexico, I am not sure that Texas is finished with tropical threats yet.

hopefully we'll start seeing some EPAC recurves soon even if we can't get a storm from the east

As we have discussed many times in the past, the greater part of Texas seems to get more "tropical" rains from the Pacific as compared to the Atlantic. Our friends in SE Texas not so much ... but they get their fair share from both sides too. Unfortunately ALL of us (except for deep south Texas right now) aren't getting doodley-squat.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX is seeing agreement from a lot of models on the trends for wetness, at this time.

Could change back to soil crack crisp grass dry evaporating lakes 100s in the afternoon package, with our luck.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 040827
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
327 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
TS Fernand is expected to make landfall in Nrn Mexico over the next
12-18 hours. While the impacts are not likely to reach as far north
as San Antonio, our southern forecast area is seeing an uptick in
rain chances versus earlier forecasts due to a broad flow of moisture
wrapping around the north side of the storm. Most of the area will
continue to see near 100 degree highs with easterly low to mid level
winds keeping mostly a continental flow and a dry air regime intact.

Rain chances over the Rio Grande Plains are expected to taper off in
the evening as typical tropical storm rain behavior pulls the higher
rain chances closer to the storm center in the overnight hours.
Thursday should see warmer temperatures as the mid level air becomes
increasingly arid and the broad high pressure area aloft begins to
fill in behind the westward moving cyclone.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Friday should see a few remnant showers derived from the remnants of
Fernand mainly near the Rio Grande. Meanwhile Central TX should
continue to cook under the strengthening ridge aloft, and widespread
100 degree temps are expected over areas outside the Hill Country.
Will need to keep an eye on dew point trends for Friday as the
increased temps could lead to increased heat index values. Typically
dewpoints under a broad ridge with light winds should mix out well
with no significant increase in heat indices; will not highlight the
heat indices in the HWO for now. A near persistence day for temps is
expected Saturday before a slight decrease in highs is expected
Sunday.

An inverted mid level trough develops over the Wrn Gulf Sunday,
while the upper ridge becomes flattened over the Srn Rockies as a
trough in the polar westerlies moves into the Great Basin. These two
features should combine to accelerate onshore winds and thus lower
the heating potential beneath a still dominant ridge. Initially the
onshore flow will do little to bring the promise for rain; but, then
Monday deterministic models have trended wetter Monday into Tuesday
once the onshore winds become all southerly through 500 mbs on the
east side of the inverted trough that is drifting NW. By Tuesday, mid
level ridging becomes stronger over the SErn US and leaves an
unstable tropical pattern. While it`s not always wise to forecast
chance category PoPs in the extended forecast in times of drought,
this pattern is showing promise and also a good agreement among
models. Should the pattern verify, there could be a need to lower max
temps in later forecast packages for Tuesday, may even as low as a
normal high for early September.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm off to Charleston. We took an early flight to Atlanta, and the Misses is going with friends to Clemson and I'm headed to Charleston to get some Tropical Adrenaline rush, before I head back to Clemson.

I better come back to cold fronts in the forecast late next week.

[weatherdude1108]

Pretty consistent forecast from this morning. Good sign.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 041956
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Satellite and radar data shows an area of showers and thunderstorms
ongoing across deep south Texas this afternoon. We have seen moisture
levels increase over the last 24 hours as deep tropical moisture
associated with Tropical Storm Fernand move northward toward the
region. With moisture levels remaining highest generally south of
Highway 90, this area will be favored for shower and thunderstorm
development through Thursday night. For the remainder of south
central Texas, a continuation of hot and dry weather is in store.
Temperatures will range from the lower 90s to near 100 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
A large area of high pressure in the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere will remain the dominant weather feature through the
remainder of the week into early next week. Dry weather is expected
for all areas, except for possibly along the Rio Grande on Friday
where residual moisture from Fernand may aid in the development of
some isolated showers and storms. Our surface winds will also remain
from the south and southeast, which will bring an increase in
humidity levels through the weekend.

The above mentioned area of high pressure does begin to weaken late
this weekend into early next week. In addition, the models are
showing a weak inverted trough possibly moving in from the Gulf of
Mexico early next week. While this pattern could bring some much
needed rainfall to the region, we prefer to keep rain chances low at
this time given this scenario is at least 4 days from now. In
addition, if the above pattern does develop, we should see
temperatures ease back closer to climatological normals for late
September.

[Brent]

Not much hope on the models tonight when will this end

[Tejas89]

The FWD discussions have been on the shorter side lately. ha.

The only good thing about all this stagnant air/haze is the pretty sunsets.

[Haris]

What a nightmare.

[Brent]

we should just go back to the summer thread clearly maybe fall will come in October or November???

the day 10 Euro total precip map has a lovely dry hole for most of us

[gpsnowman]

I absolutely hate this friggin weather. I have stopped watching the weather because it is just a repeat of the entire summer. Why bother? It pisses me off something fierce.

[CaptinCrunch]

[gpsnowman]

CaptinCrunch, you just stole my heart. Football is here and fall weather will get here soon. Cowboys to the Super Bowl!!!!

[Brent]

I absolutely hate this friggin weather. I have stopped watching the weather because it is just a repeat of the entire summer. Why bother? It pisses me off something fierce.

yeah I pretty much got caught up in Dorian the last week(that was something else seeing 185 mph in the Bahamas ) and have barely watched the local weather since... now that it's reaching an end though I'm like ok time for fall now

[hamburgerman7070]

I absolutely hate this friggin weather. I have stopped watching the weather because it is just a repeat of the entire summer. Why bother? It pisses me off something fierce.

yeah I pretty much got caught up in Dorian the last week(that was something else seeing 185 mph in the Bahamas ) and have barely watched the local weather since... now that it's reaching an end though I'm like ok time for fall now

Brent, did you see bastardi's winter outlook? For him, its pretty warm. I thought it was ok for my area but its so far out but its fun to guess i suppose.

[Brent]

I absolutely hate this friggin weather. I have stopped watching the weather because it is just a repeat of the entire summer. Why bother? It pisses me off something fierce.

yeah I pretty much got caught up in Dorian the last week(that was something else seeing 185 mph in the Bahamas ) and have barely watched the local weather since... now that it's reaching an end though I'm like ok time for fall now

Brent, did you see bastardi's winter outlook? For him, its pretty warm. I thought it was ok for my area but its so far out but its fun to guess i suppose.

Honestly maybe its for the best last winter had so much hype and didnt verify so maybe our luck will be better if nobody has expectations