Texas Fall 2019
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Upper 40's with some off and on light rain in this early a.m. Radar not overly impressive but some heavier showers are building to the northwest.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Pretty good agreement between the 00z Euro EPS and GEFS that a pattern will develop in early December that could lock in significant cold for an extended period of time.
00z EPS
00z GEFS
00z EPS
00z GEFS
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Stock up on firewood now, December is looking awesome
If NTX does end up as the battle ground area, it's been a long time since we had a true ice storm.........
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Rgv20
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Looks like the 500mb pattern setting up for Early December is loading up to unleash some Arctic air.... 
Looking at the individual 6zGFS Ensemble Members there is one member that has a low of 20 for Edinburg....single digits in San Antonio...below zero for Dallas for Friday Saturday December 7-8.
Looking at the individual 6zGFS Ensemble Members there is one member that has a low of 20 for Edinburg....single digits in San Antonio...below zero for Dallas for Friday Saturday December 7-8.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Rgv20 wrote:Looks like the 500mb pattern setting up for Early December is loading up to unleash some Arctic air....
Looking at the individual 6zGFS Ensemble Members there is one member that has a low of 20 for Edinburg....single digits in San Antonio...below zero for Dallas for Friday Saturday December 7-8.
That’s just ridiculous.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
harp wrote:The 12Z GFS is not as kind....
The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away.
EDIT: That being said, the 500mb pattern still looks promising and the source region in Canada is getting colder throughout the run.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
harp wrote:The 12Z GFS is not as kind....
We are still solidly in ensemble range.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska. 
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2019
dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png
Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
rendihess wrote:dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png
Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?
dhweather is just being sarcastic. It goes back a long way.
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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Cpv17 wrote:rendihess wrote:dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png
Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?
dhweather is just being sarcastic. It goes back a long way.
Yes, the CAT 5 IN THE GULF is dhweather's legend signature.
I think it goes back to before I started looking on this forum.
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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
The Thanksgiving holidays for DFW is looking to be wet and cool with a 50% of rain and a high in the upper 50s on Thanksgiving. A matter of fact it's looking wet Wednesday thru the weekend.
Monday and Tuesday next week will be back in the low 70s before the Pacific storm system moves in Wednesday with highs back in the upper 50s.
Pattern turns back to cold by the first weekend of December, and beyond.
Monday and Tuesday next week will be back in the low 70s before the Pacific storm system moves in Wednesday with highs back in the upper 50s.
Pattern turns back to cold by the first weekend of December, and beyond.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Cpv17 wrote:rendihess wrote:dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png
Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?
dhweather is just being sarcastic. It goes back a long way.
Just now realized you and I started our accounts on the same exact day
what a coincidence
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
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Haris
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Praying y'all are all correct. The cynical side of me is skeptical of anything beyond 7 days but we shall see!
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Haris wrote:Praying y'all are all correct. The cynical side of me is skeptical of anything beyond 7 days but we shall see!
I'm definitely still skeptical myself been burned too many times
fairly big front at the end of the Euro(this would be Dec 1-2 earlier than the timeframe talked about) but its not as cold as we were a couple weeks ago
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Fall 2019
DFW made it down to 34F this morning. Not quite a freeze but close, the GFS about 24 hours ago had a forecasted low of around 40-43F. It was quite chilly yesterday and coolish today.
Once again cold will come easy this season.
Reminder we will be moving to the Winter Thread next Sunday ending meteorological Fall and starting meteorological Winter.
Once again cold will come easy this season.
Reminder we will be moving to the Winter Thread next Sunday ending meteorological Fall and starting meteorological Winter.
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hamburgerman7070
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Ntxw wrote:DFW made it down to 34F this morning. Not quite a freeze but close, the GFS about 24 hours ago had a forecasted low of around 40-43F. It was quite chilly yesterday and coolish today.
Once again cold will come easy this season.
Reminder we will be moving to the Winter Thread next Sunday ending meteorological Fall and starting meteorological Winter.
Ntxw, winter hasnt started yet lol. I still think it's a late starter, despite tropical forcing being west of dateline. I am still clueless on evolution on the mjo.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
hamburgerman7070 wrote:Ntxw wrote:DFW made it down to 34F this morning. Not quite a freeze but close, the GFS about 24 hours ago had a forecasted low of around 40-43F. It was quite chilly yesterday and coolish today.
Once again cold will come easy this season.
Reminder we will be moving to the Winter Thread next Sunday ending meteorological Fall and starting meteorological Winter.
Ntxw, winter hasnt started yet lol. I still think it's a late starter, despite tropical forcing being west of dateline. I am still clueless on evolution on the mjo.
Don't worry about the MJO. The MJO is only useful once we understand the low frequency background state. I have learned over the years you must account for tropical forcing. The MJO will be incoherent until it hits that west-central Pacific warm pool and will amplify to juice the pattern. In 2019 when the MJO passes the Indian Ocean and Indonesia it will be weak due to the stagnant cooling in that region.
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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Made it down to 42 at my place this morning.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.