Texas Fall 2019

[Cpv17]

yeah I pretty much got caught up in Dorian the last week(that was something else seeing 185 mph in the Bahamas ) and have barely watched the local weather since... now that it's reaching an end though I'm like ok time for fall now

Brent, did you see bastardi's winter outlook? For him, its pretty warm. I thought it was ok for my area but its so far out but its fun to guess i suppose.

Honestly maybe its for the best last winter had so much hype and didnt verify so maybe our luck will be better if nobody has expectations

Yeah, I agree. Honestly I don’t think this winter is looking good for us, but you never know.

[Cpv17]

I absolutely hate this friggin weather. I have stopped watching the weather because it is just a repeat of the entire summer. Why bother? It pisses me off something fierce.

yeah I pretty much got caught up in Dorian the last week(that was something else seeing 185 mph in the Bahamas ) and have barely watched the local weather since... now that it's reaching an end though I'm like ok time for fall now

You’ll be busy watching 94L next. Looks like a long tracker through the MDR into the Caribbean.

[weatherdude1108]

Light at the end of this miserable, perpetual death ridge tunnel?



Fair skies and well above normal temperatures continue through this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast Monday through Wednesday.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 060735
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
235 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
A mostly hot dry and dry forecast today for most of the area with a
small exception of the Rio Grande Plains, where some residual
tropical moisture could lead to the development of some isolated
showers. Saturday should remain rain free as high pressure regains
its dominance this weekend resulting in more hot and dry weather.
Highs to be in the upper 90s to 100 across the area.

&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
High pressure is the main feature again for Sunday closing out the
weekend with.. you guessed it, hot and dry conditions. By Monday,
the pattern takes a welcomed shift as the high pressure moves east
allowing for greater southerly Gulf flow in the mid and low levels.
This means a deeper moisture profile and increasing chances for
showers for most of parched South Central Texas. Chances for rain
remain in the forecast for each day of the forecast period for most
of the area. Another welcomed break will be the slightly lower
temperatures as increased cloudiness and showers will keep most areas
maxed in the mid to low 90s.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I absolutely hate this friggin weather. I have stopped watching the weather because it is just a repeat of the entire summer. Why bother? It pisses me off something fierce.

yeah I pretty much got caught up in Dorian the last week(that was something else seeing 185 mph in the Bahamas ) and have barely watched the local weather since... now that it's reaching an end though I'm like ok time for fall now

Brent, did you see bastardi's winter outlook? For him, its pretty warm. I thought it was ok for my area but its so far out but its fun to guess i suppose.

Where can I find this forecast?

[Ntxw]

A lot more of this. . Been trying to look for change in the long range guidance but as of yet nothing, even in the fantasy realm.

The Atlantic recurve of Dorian just about nailed the coffin for an early Fall. September is the new July.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Current temp at my house is 104.

[weatherdude1108]

Misery loves company. But maybe in a few weeks, our luck will turn. It is just the first week of September after all. Trouble is, it's been feeling like August since July, especially around here in central Texas.

When the highs get down into in the 80s and raining, we'll need our sweaters, gotten so used to the 100s and baking!

Bob Rose:


Two months of well above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall have caused the widespread development of moderate drought conditions across the Colorado River basin. This is according to the latest US Drought Monitor released Thursday.



According to the Drought Monitor, moderate drought, the first of four levels of drought, stretched from Austin, Colorado, Lavaca and Dewitt Counties northwest to the eastern Hill Country. Another area of moderate drought was depicted across the northern Hill Country between San Angelo and Brady, extending north through Abilene and into Northwest Texas. Abnormally Dry conditions were indicated across the western and central Hill Country, along with Wharton County. An area of severe drought, the second of four categories of drought, was indicated for eastern Williamson and western Milam Counties.

The recent lack of rain and very hot temperatures have caused the soil and the landscape to dry out severely. Conditions are very parched! Over the past few weeks, numerous brush fires have developed across the region as drought conditions began to take hold. With August-like weather continuing into September, the drought is steadily growing worse.

Forecasts call for dry and very hot weather conditions to continue through Sunday. However, some changes in the weather pattern are forecast to finally take place early next week when the ridge of high pressure over Texas shifts to the east and a weak area of low pressure pushes inland out of the western Gulf of Mexico. This system is predicted to pull tropical moisture inland, leading to a slight chance for the development of isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms next Monday through Friday. The rain is forecast to be spotty and totals should be quite low. But it's a start. There are even some hints the pattern may trend a little wetter in the third week of September.

High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the mid to upper 90s. For the first time in a long time, triple-digit temperatures are not expected.

Bob



Another post from Bob came in, right after I posted this one.lol Anyway, reading pleasure:


Temperatures Trending Down Some Next Week Along with A Slight Chance for Rain.
Friday, September 6, 2019 3:24 PM
​

A September heat wave continues in full force across Central and South Texas. This heat wave is the result of an unusually strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that is currently spreading over Texas out of the Southwestern US. The magnitude of this ridge is more typical of early August rather than that of September. As a result, temperatures today and Saturday are forecast to be extremely hot and may rival some of the hottest temperatures recorded back in early August. Forecasts call for the center of the high pressure ridge to spread from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region this afternoon, to northern Texas on Saturday. Strong subsidence associated with the ridge, combined with a sunny sky is expected to cause widespread triple-digit temperatures this afternoon and again on Saturday.

High temperatures both days are forecast to be near 100-104 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and be near 98-100 degrees across the coastal plains. These readings may tie or break record high temperature records at a few locations on the two dates.

Slight changes in the heat wave are predicted to take place Sunday as forecast solutions call for the intense ridge of high pressure to weaken, with the center shifting east to Louisiana and Arkansas. Sunday's weather will continue to be sunny and hot, but temperatures should fall about 2-3 degrees from Saturday's readings. High temperatures are forecast to generally be near 98-101 degrees across Central Texas and be near 96-99 degrees across the coastal plains.

The heat wave will moderate some next week as the center of the high pressure ridge shifts from the Mississippi Valley region to the Southeastern US. The part of the ridge still in place over Texas is forecast to be quite a bit weaker. As a result, temperatures look to come down a couple more degrees. High temperatures Monday through Friday are forecast to be near 95-98 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and be near 92-95 degrees across the coastal plains.

With the ridge weakening across Texas next week, it will open the door for the development of some isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. Helping this process will be a weak trough of low pressure that is forecast to track inland from the western Gulf of Mexico early next week. This system is expected to pull an area of tropical moisture inland from the Gulf, with the moisture forecast to remain in place for most of the week. The probability for rain each day will be near 20 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas and be near 30 percent across the coastal plains. The rain will be very spotty in nature and totals are forecast to only be around a quarter inch.

The outlook for next weekend and the following week calls for a "weaker" ridge of high pressure to remain in place across Texas. Occasional spotty showers will still be possible, but no significant rain appears on the near horizon. High temperatures are predicted to generally stay in the middle to upper 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The tropical Atlantic and the eastern tropical Pacific are both quite active, but there are currently no systems in place which pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico or the Texas coast for at least the next 5 days.

Hurricane Dorian

The eye of Hurricane Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina at about 17:35 am CDT. As of 1:00 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Dorian was located roughly 125 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. Dorian was moving toward the northeast near 21 mph and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move away from the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then track across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through Saturday. After that, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

At 10 am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located over the central Atlantic, roughly 1005 miles southwest of the Azores. Gabrielle was moving toward the northwest near 17 mph. A turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur by Sunday morning. Gabrielle does not pose a threat to any land areas.

Two Areas of Disturbed Weather

National Hurricane Center forecasters are tracking an area of disorganized clouds and showers located a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. These clouds are associated with a small trough of low pressure. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. NHC forecasters are giving this system only a 10 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.

NHC forecasters are also keeping a close watch on a broad area of low pressure located just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity at the current time. Little, if any, development of this disturbance is expected for the next couple of days. However environmental conditions are likely to become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for development over the next 5 days. This system is of bit more interests to folks around the Gulf of Mexico as forecasts call for this system to be just a few hundred miles east of the Windward Island the middle of next week.


https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[weatherdude1108]

EWX being cautious and siding with the euro, given the current dryness. Understandable. Hard to get out of a pattern rut when you're in it for a while. Land of perpetual drought, occasionally interrupted by floods.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Afternoon cumulus field has developed across much of the area today.
Moisture values are the highest in the western CWA and some isolated
showers have developed in this area. Based on the extent of the
cloud field on latest satellite imagery, expect this trend to
continue through the late afternoon hours. Much of the activity
should just remain showers, but an isolated thunderstorm is also
possible. Otherwise, the high pressure system remains in play for the
remainder of the area and temperatures are responding accordingly.
The warmest temperatures are in the eastern CWA with temperatures
already nearing 100 degrees. Highs should max out in the 100-103
degree range for areas east of Highway 281 and the middle to upper
90s for locations to the east. Dewpoints are in the lower to middle
60s which should keep heat index values below advisory criteria.

For tonight, any leftover showers out west should be dissipated with
a mostly clear night expected across the region. Low temperatures
should drop into the lower to middle 70s. For tomorrow, dry weather
is expected across the area as the ridging remains. However, a weak
upper level low pressure system is expected to develop across the
western Gulf of Mexico. This feature should help weaken the ridge as
it slowly moves west. Therefore highs tomorrow could be a degree or
two less than today for some locations. Another dry night is expected
tomorrow night with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The previously mentioned upper level low is expected to continue to
slowly move west into Texas for next week. This will continue to
allow upper heights to lower and the grip of the well above normal
temperatures to slacken. Highs on Monday should only be in the 90-98
degree range and while this is about 5-6 degrees cooler than today,
it will still be slightly above normal. These lower to middle 90s
temperatures are likely to remain in place for the entire work week.

While confidence is high that we will get cooler temperatures out of
this weak upper low, there remains some uncertainty on how much rain
there will be next week. The GFS is stronger and wetter with the
system than the ECMWF/Canadian with a decent shot of scattered rain
for the entire week. Due to recent trends and the dryness over the
past 2 months, do not want to go higher than 30 PoPs for now and will
side with the drier solutions.

[weatherdude1108]

The 8-14-day and 3-4 week maps offer a glimmer of hope, I guess. I'm beginning to think: I know this pattern will change eventually, I'm just being impatient. I won't bother posting the temp. maps, because those were all above normal for Texas. So these are just the CPC precip. maps.




I saw evidence of a brush fire just down I35 from my work on the side of the road on Wednesday. Big charred area between highway and frontage. Combine that with nearby road construction, and it's a hot, dusty, tinder, depressing mess around here.

But some greenery dies, some greenery survives, some stuff grows from the seeds when conditions are ripe for growing again. Circle of life. I think I'm seeing a mirage.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... cp.new.gif

[Shoshana]

We heard thunder the other night, but haven’t had any rain at all. Mulberry tree is losing it’s leaves

[Brent]

yeah I pretty much got caught up in Dorian the last week(that was something else seeing 185 mph in the Bahamas ) and have barely watched the local weather since... now that it's reaching an end though I'm like ok time for fall now

Brent, did you see bastardi's winter outlook? For him, its pretty warm. I thought it was ok for my area but its so far out but its fun to guess i suppose.

Where can I find this forecast?

Its very average here on both counts

[bubba hotep]

Man this pattern is stagnant... Every time it looks like there is some hope for change the next model cycle reverts back to what we are stuck in. 00z Euro was another run of 10 days of no rain and temps near 100F for DFW. I hate to say it, but it is hard to go against the larger scale pattern that we have seen the last 4 yrs and that means probably another no snow winter for DFW

[Yukon Cornelius]

Please make it stop.

[captainbarbossa19]

Link: https://youtu.be/SCA7DO5EcBQ

Since we are in meteorological fall, I felt like sharing this video from "It's a Southern Thing." It summarizes our weather in Texas pretty well (especially the fall part of the video).

[weatherdude1108]

https://youtu.be/SCA7DO5EcBQ

Since we are in meteorological fall, I felt like sharing this video from "It's a Southern Thing." It summarizes our weather in Texas pretty well (especially the fall part of the video).

I loved this!

[Brent]

https://youtu.be/SCA7DO5EcBQ

Since we are in meteorological fall, I felt like sharing this video from "It's a Southern Thing." It summarizes our weather in Texas pretty well (especially the fall part of the video).

Way too accurate around here

Man this pattern is stagnant... Every time it looks like there is some hope for change the next model cycle reverts back to what we are stuck in. 00z Euro was another run of 10 days of no rain and temps near 100F for DFW. I hate to say it, but it is hard to go against the larger scale pattern that we have seen the last 4 yrs and that means probably another no snow winter for DFW

I suppose its a good thing I decided to go to Lake Tahoe in January months ago I struck out last winter after all the hype and it's not happening again

[gpsnowman]

Nada. Zilch. Zero. Nothing on the horizon. I can not recall a September devoid of cool fronts and rain as this current September. Thank God for football. Go Cowboys!!!!!!

[hriverajr]

ON the other hand there is some hope for scattered showers and moderating temperatures in south central, southwest and south Texas. One only has to look at satellite at the increased moisture related to a weakness at 500 mb. In the longer range, if tropical activity moves to our east as forecast it probably will dry out significantly again

[Ntxw]

Silver lining is the daily SOI is -20 and since the beginning of September it has been in reversal from August positive.

What does this mean? Can't say there are imminent changes regarding temps...but sometime down the line (perhaps late month) a wetter pattern may ensue. WWB just west and near the IDL is giving us a little bit of hope for a wetter pattern once the Atlantic slows down.

[Brent]

Nada. Zilch. Zero. Nothing on the horizon. I can not recall a September devoid of cool fronts and rain as this current September. Thank God for football. Go Cowboys!!!!!!

apparently we're making up for the late start we got on the 100 degree days