STORM2K

gpsnowman wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:Remember the rule of forecasting. Day 1 is 100% accuracy, and subtract 10% each day out from there. There is 0% accuracy @ 10 days out.

I don't start buying into the possibility of anything more than 3 days out. The weather rock currently says sunny, cold, and frosty start to sunday.

Weather Rock?

https://youtu.be/8nwfVh_39Bg
The great Harold Taft

Great old video clip, the weather rock is never wrong.

Unfortunately the snow will stay north of where I will be in Kansas this week unless you believe some weird GFS runs. But, they are getting snow this year, which is a good sign for us. Their snow drought is ending.

According to our extended forecast, Desummber will be getting off to a fast start in South Louisiana, with temps pushing 80 the first few days of the month...

Hurricane_Apu wrote:According to our extended forecast, Desummber will be getting off to a fast start in South Louisiana, with temps pushing 80 the first few days of the month...

Coldest high here on the ensembles is around 50 some pattern that is. I hope before too deep into the month we see a better pattern

Brent wrote:

Hurricane_Apu wrote:According to our extended forecast, Desummber will be getting off to a fast start in South Louisiana, with temps pushing 80 the first few days of the month...

Coldest high here on the ensembles is around 50 some pattern that is. I hope before too deep into the month we see a better pattern

Which ensembles?

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:

Hurricane_Apu wrote:According to our extended forecast, Desummber will be getting off to a fast start in South Louisiana, with temps pushing 80 the first few days of the month...

Coldest high here on the ensembles is around 50 some pattern that is. I hope before too deep into the month we see a better pattern

Which ensembles?

The euro and gfs

Echoes of last year...

But not going to worry unless no signs of change by mid-December.

rwfromkansas wrote:Echoes of last year...

But not going to worry unless no signs of change by mid-December.

it's eerie isn't it

fortunately it's still early and there is more snow upstream though

I think that we are going to have to wait until after mid-end of December for a more favorable pattern. I hope we aren't chasing unicorns all winter. The IOD and mjo may be messing us up. There is probably more than just mjo, but i am suprised that the ao is forecasted to turn positive. Not sure why that will happen. Imho i feel like it has something to do with this possible SSW, but im not a weatherman lol.

Makes sense, we have had bad luck over the years driving back home from holiday.

Models are now showing North Atlantic blocking breaking down as we head into mid-Dec, that would make it hard to get sustained cold in place across the Southern Plains. We will have to wait and see if that actually happens, since the models have tried this a couple of times only to trend back towards a negative NAO.

CaptinCrunch wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:Weather Rock?

https://youtu.be/8nwfVh_39Bg
The great Harold Taft

Great old video clip, the weather rock is never wrong.

Lol. That's cool! I remember seeing those old hand-drawn maps on tv when I was a little kid. Cracks me up when they show the analog weather instrumentation, but at the same time, also refreshing to see such simplicity they had back then.

bubba hotep wrote:Models are now showing North Atlantic blocking breaking down as we head into mid-Dec, that would make it hard to get sustained cold in place across the Southern Plains. We will have to wait and see if that actually happens, since the models have tried this a couple of times only to trend back towards a negative NAO.

We have seen the models be wrong in the past. Just last week the forecast for Wednesday was mid 70s, now its mid 50s. Thanksgiving still looks cool and wet with mid 50s. Looks like a seesaw the next 2 weeks 70s-50s-70s-50s

CaptinCrunch wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Models are now showing North Atlantic blocking breaking down as we head into mid-Dec, that would make it hard to get sustained cold in place across the Southern Plains. We will have to wait and see if that actually happens, since the models have tried this a couple of times only to trend back towards a negative NAO.

We have seen the models be wrong in the past. Just last week the forecast for Wednesday was mid 70s, now its mid 50s. Thanksgiving still looks cool and wet with mid 50s. Looks like a seesaw the next 2 weeks 70s-50s-70s-50s

What do you mean a seesaw?

starsfan65 wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Models are now showing North Atlantic blocking breaking down as we head into mid-Dec, that would make it hard to get sustained cold in place across the Southern Plains. We will have to wait and see if that actually happens, since the models have tried this a couple of times only to trend back towards a negative NAO.

We have seen the models be wrong in the past. Just last week the forecast for Wednesday was mid 70s, now its mid 50s. Thanksgiving still looks cool and wet with mid 50s. Looks like a seesaw the next 2 weeks 70s-50s-70s-50s

What do you mean a seesaw?

much like what we have seen already, 50's this past Friday and Saturday, 70s today and tomorrow, back to 50s for Wednesday and Thanksgiving, 70's for the weekend, and back to 50s for Monday of next week.

CaptinCrunch wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:
We have seen the models be wrong in the past. Just last week the forecast for Wednesday was mid 70s, now its mid 50s. Thanksgiving still looks cool and wet with mid 50s. Looks like a seesaw the next 2 weeks 70s-50s-70s-50s

What do you mean a seesaw?

much like what we have seen already, 50's this past Friday and Saturday, 70s today and tomorrow, back to 50s for Wednesday and Thanksgiving, 70's for the weekend, and back to 50s for Monday of next week.

Basically Texas weather (exception Summer when it's the same).

The GFS is literally useless after about 200 hours. If flip flops every single run. Have no clue what is down the road.

WPC sees a wet week ahead for N. Texas



Lines up with the 12z GEFS

bubba hotep wrote:WPC sees a wet week ahead for N. Texas

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/wpc-conus-qpf/dallas/total_precip_inch/1574704800/1575309600-1FzH8I3sQTA.png

Lines up with the 12z GEFS

https://i.ibb.co/QYLBcfr/12zGEFS.png

Crickets everywhere else and looks to stay that way for quite some time.

Since the cold isn't happening any thoughts on the severe potential Friday