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Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:30 pm
by CaptinCrunch
Temps for Thanksgiving have again trended slightly lower for DFW and points north to high's in the upper 40s, this will most likely also be the low for thursday as well since this system is expected to lift to the NE and winds will turn from the WSW by midnight into early Friday morning.
NWS outlook for Friday evening
The main show appears now to be Friday night through at least
midday or early afternoon Saturday as models have slowed down the
arrival of the deep latitudinal and broad Western CONUS trough
eastward across the Central Rockies and over the Plains. This has
delayed the arrival of the initial surface trough to the late
nighttime hours which will help limit the threat for strong to
severe storms at least somewhat. With this delay, I do
wholeheartedly agree with the severe weather risk for this time
frame being limited to Marginal. The environment ahead of the
surface trough will be only marginally unstable despite the
strong wind shear in place. There will still be a risk of a few
strong to possibly marginally severe storms overnight Friday night
into Saturday morning as this feature moves through the area and
exits to the east around midday Saturday.
Wind and hail will be the primary threat over night, but can't rule out a brief tornado or two from the stronger cells.
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:05 pm
by Brent
CaptinCrunch wrote:Temps for Thanksgiving have again trended slightly lower for DFW and points north to high's in the upper 40s, this will most likely also be the low for thursday as well since this system is expected to lift to the NE and winds will turn from the WSW by midnight into early Friday morning.
NWS outlook for Friday evening
The main show appears now to be Friday night through at least
midday or early afternoon Saturday as models have slowed down the
arrival of the deep latitudinal and broad Western CONUS trough
eastward across the Central Rockies and over the Plains. This has
delayed the arrival of the initial surface trough to the late
nighttime hours which will help limit the threat for strong to
severe storms at least somewhat. With this delay, I do
wholeheartedly agree with the severe weather risk for this time
frame being limited to Marginal. The environment ahead of the
surface trough will be only marginally unstable despite the
strong wind shear in place. There will still be a risk of a few
strong to possibly marginally severe storms overnight Friday night
into Saturday morning as this feature moves through the area and
exits to the east around midday Saturday.
Wind and hail will be the primary threat over night, but can't rule out a brief tornado or two from the stronger cells.
looks like time of day will help limit the threat somewhat
but then again the Dallas tornado was at 9pm
Should be noted though the forecast isn't nearly as warm as that day was
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:37 pm
by BTAYLOR5021
This pattern sucks. We need Arctic air. I feel like this will be our new norm, due to global warming and warmer than average ocean temps. *sad face*
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:54 am
by Brent
these models are so boring, what happened
even the rain event between now and Saturday is rather lame
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:08 am
by CaptinCrunch
Time to start prepping.....
It has been pouring since 430am, some thunder and lightning with it. We'll see how high the temp gets today, still thinking upper 40s from the metro area north, lower to mid 50s further south.
Enjoy soggy Thanksgiving 2019
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:52 am
by gpsnowman
Happy Thanksgiving from beautiful Caddo Lake in east Texas.!! Low 50's on tap for today witb an off and on shower. Smoked a turkey overnight and I am ready to start a full day of gluttony. I am worried about driving back to Dallas on Saturday. I saw some t-storms in the forecast. We shall see. Enjoy the day everyone!!
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 9:08 am
by weatherdude1108
Damp and cool 50s here in SA with my parents, siblings, nieces, and in laws. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:29 am
by northjaxpro
I wanted to wish all of the Texas Storm2K family and all the others Happy Thanksgiving!!!
Eat plentiful and be merry!!
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:52 am
by bubba hotep
Happy Thanksgiving all!
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:16 am
by TexasF6
Happy Thanksgiving S2K Family!!!
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:36 am
by srainhoutx
Happy Thanksgiving S2k weather family from our new home in the Smokey Mountains of Western NC. It's a big change from SE Texas and certainly different living at 3500 feet above sea level on the side of a mountain! Snow is in my forecast Sunday night into Monday and may all your 'snow dreams' come true this winter!
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:48 am
by dhweather
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Looks like no Leon Lett game today.
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:39 pm
by harp
GFS finally drives some cold air south at the end of the 12Z run.
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:54 pm
by KatDaddy
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! A gloomy Thanksgiving weather day ongoing however its mild even though it looks like it should be 40F outside.
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:12 pm
by Brent
harp wrote:GFS finally drives some cold air south at the end of the 12Z run.
Isn't it always at the end of the run
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:34 pm
by Cerlin
This weather is near perfect for thanksgiving (aside from the lack of snow), which reminds of how thankful I am for the whole Storm2K community. I hope each and every one of you has a safe, wonderful thanksgiving and I’m extremely thankful to be a member of this community.
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:33 pm
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:harp wrote:GFS finally drives some cold air south at the end of the 12Z run.
Isn't it always at the end of the run
Lol yup!
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:07 pm
by harp
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:harp wrote:GFS finally drives some cold air south at the end of the 12Z run.
Isn't it always at the end of the run
Lol yup!
Well, it hadn't been doing that in the past, so.... It certainly isn't going to put it at the beginning....
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:10 pm
by hamburgerman7070
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. This question is for ntxw. What are your thoughts on the mjo from this point? Is there anyway to tell where it goes or when it may reemerge in better phases for us or is it to early to know?
Re: Texas Fall 2019
Posted: Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:16 pm
by South Texas Storms
Happy Thanksgiving yall! Hope everyone had a great one.
Unfortunately I'm not seeing much in the way of any exciting weather for us anytime soon. Hopefully things will change as we head through December.