STORM2K

We start.

Thank you sir, was just about to do that.

Thanks tireman4!

I do what I can for the worst season of the year. Lol

Blah. The only good thing about this season is the days start getting shorter in 4 weeks

On the plus side we may be starting with a tropical threat by the middle of the week

Brent wrote:Blah. The only good thing about this season is the days start getting shorter in 4 weeks

On the plus side we may be starting with a tropical threat by the middle of the week

Hey I like the long days. I like getting home from work and still having a few hours of daylight left to where I can actually get some stuff accomplished lol

This would be a lively start

Growing confidence in additional rain for Texas from the deep tropics? A weaker sloppy system would be preferred for a number of reasons but it would help spread the rain around vs. a compact organized system.

bubba hotep wrote:Growing confidence in additional rain for Texas from the deep tropics? A weaker sloppy system would be preferred for a number of reasons but it would help spread the rain around vs. a compact organized system.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1590969600/1592265600-kcAI4o6j4Kg.png

Oh, no question a weaker system is preferred to get widespread beneficial rains (depression to weak tropical storm).

Hurricanes suck out all the moisture around them, leaving those on the western end of the systems high and dry, potentially creating an atmospheric feedback loop/"memory in the system" the rest of Summer with hot, dry days/weeks/months.

Would be great to just have periodic tropical moisture surges from the Gulf all Summer. There's plenty of heat/moisture in that body of water built up to go around. There weren't many fronts that plowed through that water this past Winter to cool it off much.

Of course that could also mean a large marine high pressure system setting up shop in the Gulf, which we've already seen pushing back systems to our north (at least down in my area). Who knows?

Can we move up some more?

Brent wrote:This would be a lively start

https://i.ibb.co/khBXxgX/EP02-2020060100-ECENS-large.png

I hope this isn't going to be another Imelda type system. My area does NOT need another tropical storm this year. Many areas experience severe flooding now from just 1-2 inches of rain from a storm. The drainage needs to be worked on before we have another storm. I don't mind the rain reaching the people who need it, but this area just needs an average summer right now.

I'm still very intrigued about the tropical system, there's some uncertainty as to whether it's even still TD 3(or possibly the next one) but anyway the Icon comes into Galveston as a hurricane and comes to Dallas as a solid storm by the end of the run

the GFS is more east and keeps most of the rain closer to the border

Brent wrote:I'm still very intrigued about the tropical system, there's some uncertainty as to whether it's even still TD 3(or possibly the next one) but anyway the Icon comes into Galveston as a hurricane and comes to Dallas as a solid storm by the end of the run

the GFS is more east and keeps most of the rain closer to the border

The Euro and GFS are both way too far east for Texas to get much of anything outta it besides being on the dry and hot side of the storm. I don’t want anything serious out of this, but a south Texas or central Texas coastal hit as a tropical storm would be nice as long as it doesn’t move too slowly. That way many of us here in Texas could get some rains from it and some cooler weather for a couple days. Still have a long ways to go before we know what will happen but as of now this is looking like a Louisiana storm.

Well I do hope that some of the tropical moisture makes it up this far otherwise summer heat is going to persist for a good while. We have a long way to go till fall. Ugh.

Joe B has a track that would probably get some rain into Eastern DFW

Today's model runs are shifting the track farther east into LA. Not looking good for us getting much rain for a while unfortunately...

South Texas Storms wrote:Today's model runs are shifting the track farther east into LA. Not looking good for us getting much rain for a while unfortunately...

Yeah. Latest CPC forecast is sizzling hot next week for Texas. Next two weeks look dry and hot actually. Lovely.

South Texas Storms wrote:Today's model runs are shifting the track farther east into LA. Not looking good for us getting much rain for a while unfortunately...

Which isn't surprising given the upper level environment, the past few years it seems like the models struggle with this at range with early season systems, they kind of ignore the big upper level trough and try to get early season systems farther west and then we eventually end up with a hybrid like system that landfalls in Louisiana and the rain max is in the Florida Panhandle.

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Today's model runs are shifting the track farther east into LA. Not looking good for us getting much rain for a while unfortunately...

Yeah. Latest CPC forecast is sizzling hot next week for Texas. Next two weeks look dry and hot actually. Lovely.

Exactly what I was dreading.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 021938
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
238 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
As the upper low continues its northeast journey towards Oklahoma,
we are still seeing isolated to scattered showers and occasional
storm this afternoon. In the stronger showers, radar estimated rain
rates have been as high as an inch, so a brief period of heavy rain
is possible. Convection should be primarily heat driven and should
diminish after sunset. Ridging moves in from the west and showers
tomorrow should be mainly along the Coastal Plains. This upper
ridging will keep the forecast mostly dry with increasing
temperatures. With less clouds available tomorrow, temperatures
should get into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Mid to upper level ridging continues to build in from the west on
Thursday with a 500 mb high in place across northwestern Mexico and
into southwestern TX and New Mexico. This will lead to an increase in
temperatures with rain chances coming to an end. High temperatures
will increase gradually each day from Thursday through the weekend,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s by Saturday and upper 90s (to low
100s along the Rio Grande) by Sunday. Tropical Storm Cristobal is
expected to hang around the Bay of Campeche/Yucatan Peninsula through
Friday before finally heading northward into the west-central Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. While uncertainty remains, global models
suggest Cristobal making landfall somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana
border (or just east of that location) by late Sunday/early Monday
and heading northward toward the central US by early to middle of
next week. This scenario would leave South Central Texas high and dry
(although it is possible that the far eastern counties could see
some showers/storms from the outer rainbands) with subsidence on the
west side of the tropical system leading to temperatures soaring
into the triple digits for Monday and Tuesday.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Today's model runs are shifting the track farther east into LA. Not looking good for us getting much rain for a while unfortunately...

Yeah. Latest CPC forecast is sizzling hot next week for Texas. Next two weeks look dry and hot actually. Lovely.

Exactly what I was dreading.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 021938
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
238 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
As the upper low continues its northeast journey towards Oklahoma,
we are still seeing isolated to scattered showers and occasional
storm this afternoon. In the stronger showers, radar estimated rain
rates have been as high as an inch, so a brief period of heavy rain
is possible. Convection should be primarily heat driven and should
diminish after sunset. Ridging moves in from the west and showers
tomorrow should be mainly along the Coastal Plains. This upper
ridging will keep the forecast mostly dry with increasing
temperatures. With less clouds available tomorrow, temperatures
should get into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Mid to upper level ridging continues to build in from the west on
Thursday with a 500 mb high in place across northwestern Mexico and
into southwestern TX and New Mexico. This will lead to an increase in
temperatures with rain chances coming to an end. High temperatures
will increase gradually each day from Thursday through the weekend,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s by Saturday and upper 90s (to low
100s along the Rio Grande) by Sunday. Tropical Storm Cristobal is
expected to hang around the Bay of Campeche/Yucatan Peninsula through
Friday before finally heading northward into the west-central Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. While uncertainty remains, global models
suggest Cristobal making landfall somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana
border (or just east of that location) by late Sunday/early Monday
and heading northward toward the central US by early to middle of
next week. This scenario would leave South Central Texas high and dry
(although it is possible that the far eastern counties could see
some showers/storms from the outer rainbands) with subsidence on the
west side of the tropical system leading to temperatures soaring
into the triple digits for Monday and Tuesday.

Would’ve much rather had some tropical rains around and cooler temps. No flooding but 2-4” and overcast would’ve been nice. Especially for me since my job consists of me being outside a lot.