Texas Summer 2020

[Cpv17]

While the trends are not good, too early to be sure. Laura is still many days out. You saw how quick Marco's forecast changed... same could happen to Laura's... further, there are models that bring Laura as far as Browsville. Still anyone's game.

Got 1.3" of rain this morning! Small dime sized hail too. Rained for a good 4-5 hours.

Yeah that's a good point about Laura we don't even know where the final center is gonna be yet so things can still change although I do agree trends are not good

And to be honest Marco was so small I'm not really sure he would have been a big rain event anyway especially when it looked like he was gonna heavily sheared at landfall in Texas

Many of the models barely had a signal compared to what Laura might be so we'll see what happens

Right on cue both the GFS and Ukmet hit Galveston who knows how far west they could go by Wednesday honestly lol

We’ll see what the Euro shows next. If it’s further west then expect the NHC to nudge west with the track.

[Brent]

While the trends are not good, too early to be sure. Laura is still many days out. You saw how quick Marco's forecast changed... same could happen to Laura's... further, there are models that bring Laura as far as Browsville. Still anyone's game.

Got 1.3" of rain this morning! Small dime sized hail too. Rained for a good 4-5 hours.

Yeah that's a good point about Laura we don't even know where the final center is gonna be yet so things can still change although I do agree trends are not good

And to be honest Marco was so small I'm not really sure he would have been a big rain event anyway especially when it looked like he was gonna heavily sheared at landfall in Texas

Many of the models barely had a signal compared to what Laura might be so we'll see what happens

Right on cue both the GFS and Ukmet hit Galveston who knows how far west they could go by Wednesday honestly lol

We’ll see what the Euro shows next. If it’s further west then expect the NHC to nudge west with the track.

Euro not only hits Texas but it's extremely strong

[South Texas Storms]

Yikes...glad I stocked up the cars with gas yesterday and am getting groceries delivered later this morning. Not good trends in the 0z model guidance for Houston tonight.

[Cpv17]

Yeah that's a good point about Laura we don't even know where the final center is gonna be yet so things can still change although I do agree trends are not good

And to be honest Marco was so small I'm not really sure he would have been a big rain event anyway especially when it looked like he was gonna heavily sheared at landfall in Texas

Many of the models barely had a signal compared to what Laura might be so we'll see what happens

Right on cue both the GFS and Ukmet hit Galveston who knows how far west they could go by Wednesday honestly lol

We’ll see what the Euro shows next. If it’s further west then expect the NHC to nudge west with the track.

Euro not only hits Texas but it's extremely strong

https://i.ibb.co/Xy6V866/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-gom-5.png

Thankfully that wouldn’t have any impact on my area. I want a storm but not a monster like that.

[Cpv17]

Yikes...glad I stocked up the cars with gas yesterday and am getting groceries delivered later this morning. Not good trends in the 0z model guidance for Houston tonight.

The east side of Houston over to SWLA would take it right on the chin with that run.

[Cpv17]

The 0z EPS is downright terrifying for Texas.

[Brent]

The 0z EPS is downright terrifying for Texas.

[Cpv17]

The 0z EPS is downright terrifying for Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/SBv4YhV/AL13-2020082300-ECENS-0-120h-large.png

The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.

[Portastorm]

The 0z EPS is downright terrifying for Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/SBv4YhV/AL13-2020082300-ECENS-0-120h-large.png

The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.

I wouldn’t be surprised by further west shifts considering some of the latest real time developments.

[Cpv17]

https://i.ibb.co/SBv4YhV/AL13-2020082300-ECENS-0-120h-large.png

The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.

I wouldn’t be surprised by further west shifts considering some of the latest real time developments.

I see your point but I just don’t know how much more this thing could keep shifting west. At some point they have to end. I mean it already shifted from the big bend of FL to the TX/LA border.

[Brent]

https://i.ibb.co/SBv4YhV/AL13-2020082300-ECENS-0-120h-large.png

The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.

I wouldn’t be surprised by further west shifts considering some of the latest real time developments.

yeah the further south the center is the more west its coming

nobody thought it'd be south of Cuba but that's looking entirely possible right now

[Cpv17]

The models could slightly shift back east today judging by the 06z Euro and the 12z ICON. I kinda feel like the west shifts have come to a commence but we’ll see.

I wouldn’t be surprised by further west shifts considering some of the latest real time developments.

yeah the further south the center is the more west its coming

Very true. It could completely miss Cuba to the south by a few miles with the way it’s looking now. And the latest Para ensembles are strongly clustered between basically Corpus to Beaumont.

[Brent]

Boy the euro is having a rough go this storm lol an open wave for days then it finally shows a major last night only to show a weak TS at 12z I can't anymore

[Cpv17]

Boy the euro is having a rough go this storm lol an open wave for days then it finally shows a major last night only to show a weak TS at 12z I can't anymore

It’s struggling bad.

[Brent]

Boy the euro is having a rough go this storm lol an open wave for days then it finally shows a major last night only to show a weak TS at 12z I can't anymore

It’s struggling bad.

The EPS isn't much better back into Central Louisiana but all of them have it moving NW from here which doesn't seem very probable

[Ntxw]

Whatever happens with the gulf systems, the resultant pattern may actually shift with it to give us a first taste of Fall...potentially. Something to ponder.

Reminder time is now ticking on the summer thread as we will migrate to the Fall thread for September-October-November!

[rwfromkansas]

Track shifted away from DFW again. Never seen such crazy track shifts.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Track shifted away from DFW again. Never seen such crazy track shifts.

No joke. It’s been pretty insane.

[aggiecutter]

Cat 5 in Gulf of Mexico:

[Brent]

Track shifted away from DFW again. Never seen such crazy track shifts.

I don't think they are done the ukmet went west and is now between Matagorda and Galveston and it's barely east of Dallas in the later times

actually 967 mb between Corsicana and Fairfield