Texas Summer 2020

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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#461 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:03 am

@RyanMaue — Bad news from the final batch of morning weather model data especially if you are in Texas. The spaghetti solutions from the ECMWF 06z update (ensembles) shows the most-likely:

Track: including Houston metro.
Intensity: Category 2-3+ likely.
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#462 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:08 am

:uarrow:

Yes, the morning model trends are ominous for us (Texas). I hope our friends in SE Texas along the coast are paying close attention. Not much time left to make the Clash decision ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?").
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#463 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:08 am

Found this, thought I would share.
https://youtu.be/60R40jp8O8I
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#464 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:43 am

I’ve noticed since yesterday that the center of Laura seems to be well south of where the NHC has it. It might not even hit Cuba at all.
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#465 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:12 pm

:uarrow: It’s restating the obvious and others have noted this all morning, but that is likely to have implications on future track and intensity forecasts.

I get the feeling this may be Ike 2.0.
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#466 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:32 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Yes, the morning model trends are ominous for us (Texas). I hope our friends in SE Texas along the coast are paying close attention. Not much time left to make the Clash decision ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?").



Ya know Porta, we are just having a whale of a time on Wxinfinity.com. You are there, at times. Come join the fun sir. :)
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#467 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:47 pm

The EPS is still :double:

Image

Almost all the other 12z models went east :spam:
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#468 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:48 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Yes, the morning model trends are ominous for us (Texas). I hope our friends in SE Texas along the coast are paying close attention. Not much time left to make the Clash decision ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?").



Ya know Porta, we are just having a whale of a time on Wxinfinity.com. You are there, at times. Come join the fun sir. :)


I have not been over lately. Yeah I bet there is plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth going on. :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#469 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:51 pm

Todays the day to get ahead of the panic. Landfall is about 48 hours away. Dont wait till tomorrow. I havent been in this chat much but I've had a Baytown to Beaumont landfall for a couple days now
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#470 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:58 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Yes, the morning model trends are ominous for us (Texas). I hope our friends in SE Texas along the coast are paying close attention. Not much time left to make the Clash decision ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?").



Ya know Porta, we are just having a whale of a time on Wxinfinity.com. You are there, at times. Come join the fun sir. :)


I have not been over lately. Yeah I bet there is plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth going on. :lol:


Yeah, that sums it up...LOL
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#471 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:46 pm

@RyanMaue — Another awful forecast run from ECMWF 18z tonight as Category 4+ Hurricane Laura comes perilously close to Houston late Wednesday.

Waiting for ensembles in about an hour.
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#472 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:02 pm

@RyanMaue — And the Ensembles have arrived.

The HiRes or deterministic forecast from previous Tweet it right up the middle of the ensemble envelope.

I'd be on high alert around Houston for major hurricane Laura within 50-100 miles.
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#473 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:46 pm

@TxStormChasers — Mandatory evacuation order issued for ALL of Jefferson County in the Golden Triangle (far Southeast Texas). Jefferson county includes Beaumont, Nederland, and Port Arthur - population of over 250,000. #txwx
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#474 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:53 pm

@TxStormChasers — 10PM NHC note on Laura: "Although the global models are in relatively good agreement, there remains some spread in the ensemble members, Therefore, confidence in the track forecast is still not high. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the left (west) of the previous one."
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#475 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:29 pm

I give up on these models

:spam:

Can we just get some rain in DFW :lol:

In other news the Euro had a cold front next week... note this is the same Euro that said Laura would be an open wave for days...
Last edited by Brent on Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#476 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:04 am

Brent wrote:I give up on these models

:spam:

Can we just get some rain in DFW :lol:

In other news the Euro had a cold front next week...


Yeah I’m already over Laura. Barring something crazy happening, It’ll be a nonevent here where I am an hour sw of Houston. Might get some breezy weather and some clouds but that’s about it. I’m already looking for the next possible storm. And I agree about the rain. Haven’t had any measurable rainfall here in about a month now.
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#477 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:11 am

:eek: now the Euro is 941 mb into Galveston :spam:

I can't anymore yall lol

this track would be really close to being rainy and windy in DFW on Thursday though
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#478 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:36 am

Brent wrote::eek: now the Euro is 941 mb into Galveston :spam:

I can't anymore yall lol

this track would be really close to being rainy and windy in DFW on Thursday though


It seems to me that the NHC has been ignoring the EPS. Which clearly shows a further sw track. Idk. I don’t understand.
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#479 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:40 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote::eek: now the Euro is 941 mb into Galveston :spam:

I can't anymore yall lol

this track would be really close to being rainy and windy in DFW on Thursday though


It seems to me that the NHC has been ignoring the EPS. Which clearly shows a further sw track. Idk. I don’t understand.


Eric Webb mentioned even down into Port O'Connor at risk :double:

Yeah I don't get it either I was suspicious of the EPS all day before this. Galveston isn't even under a hurricane watch...

They should be at 4am :double: :eek: :eek: :double:

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2020

#480 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:41 am

NHC nudged forecast track westward in last advisory. Is a further west trend in play today? Eric Webb and Joe Bastardi think so:

@BigJoeBastardi — In this case the exact track is very crucial.because near and 50 miles east of the center, this will be a devastating hurricane at Landfall, Opposite Rita which shifted away from Houston, the worry here is the feature will shift toward Houston. Keep an eye on NHC ideas

@webberweather — I'm still expecting more west shifts in track forecasts for #Laura today. Even vs the new 0z EPS, #Laura is on the SW edge of the ensemble track envelope & is ~25 mi SW of the mean. Landfall risk is increasing along the upper-central TX coast from Galveston to Port O'Connor #txwx
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