STORM2K

@RyanMaue — Bad news from the final batch of morning weather model data especially if you are in Texas. The spaghetti solutions from the ECMWF 06z update (ensembles) shows the most-likely:

Track: including Houston metro.
Intensity: Category 2-3+ likely.

Yes, the morning model trends are ominous for us (Texas). I hope our friends in SE Texas along the coast are paying close attention. Not much time left to make the Clash decision ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?").

Found this, thought I would share.
https://youtu.be/60R40jp8O8I

I’ve noticed since yesterday that the center of Laura seems to be well south of where the NHC has it. It might not even hit Cuba at all.

It’s restating the obvious and others have noted this all morning, but that is likely to have implications on future track and intensity forecasts.

I get the feeling this may be Ike 2.0.

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Yes, the morning model trends are ominous for us (Texas). I hope our friends in SE Texas along the coast are paying close attention. Not much time left to make the Clash decision ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?").

Ya know Porta, we are just having a whale of a time on Wxinfinity.com. You are there, at times. Come join the fun sir.

The EPS is still



Almost all the other 12z models went east

Tireman4 wrote:

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Yes, the morning model trends are ominous for us (Texas). I hope our friends in SE Texas along the coast are paying close attention. Not much time left to make the Clash decision ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?").

Ya know Porta, we are just having a whale of a time on Wxinfinity.com. You are there, at times. Come join the fun sir.

I have not been over lately. Yeah I bet there is plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth going on.

Todays the day to get ahead of the panic. Landfall is about 48 hours away. Dont wait till tomorrow. I havent been in this chat much but I've had a Baytown to Beaumont landfall for a couple days now

Portastorm wrote:

Tireman4 wrote:

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Yes, the morning model trends are ominous for us (Texas). I hope our friends in SE Texas along the coast are paying close attention. Not much time left to make the Clash decision ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?").

Ya know Porta, we are just having a whale of a time on Wxinfinity.com. You are there, at times. Come join the fun sir.

I have not been over lately. Yeah I bet there is plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth going on.

Yeah, that sums it up...LOL

@RyanMaue — Another awful forecast run from ECMWF 18z tonight as Category 4+ Hurricane Laura comes perilously close to Houston late Wednesday.

Waiting for ensembles in about an hour.

@RyanMaue — And the Ensembles have arrived.

The HiRes or deterministic forecast from previous Tweet it right up the middle of the ensemble envelope.

I'd be on high alert around Houston for major hurricane Laura within 50-100 miles.

@TxStormChasers — Mandatory evacuation order issued for ALL of Jefferson County in the Golden Triangle (far Southeast Texas). Jefferson county includes Beaumont, Nederland, and Port Arthur - population of over 250,000. #txwx

@TxStormChasers — 10PM NHC note on Laura: "Although the global models are in relatively good agreement, there remains some spread in the ensemble members, Therefore, confidence in the track forecast is still not high. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the left (west) of the previous one."

I give up on these models



Can we just get some rain in DFW

In other news the Euro had a cold front next week... note this is the same Euro that said Laura would be an open wave for days...

Brent wrote:I give up on these models



Can we just get some rain in DFW

In other news the Euro had a cold front next week...

Yeah I’m already over Laura. Barring something crazy happening, It’ll be a nonevent here where I am an hour sw of Houston. Might get some breezy weather and some clouds but that’s about it. I’m already looking for the next possible storm. And I agree about the rain. Haven’t had any measurable rainfall here in about a month now.

now the Euro is 941 mb into Galveston

I can't anymore yall lol

this track would be really close to being rainy and windy in DFW on Thursday though

Brent wrote::eek: now the Euro is 941 mb into Galveston

I can't anymore yall lol

this track would be really close to being rainy and windy in DFW on Thursday though

It seems to me that the NHC has been ignoring the EPS. Which clearly shows a further sw track. Idk. I don’t understand.

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote::eek: now the Euro is 941 mb into Galveston

I can't anymore yall lol

this track would be really close to being rainy and windy in DFW on Thursday though

It seems to me that the NHC has been ignoring the EPS. Which clearly shows a further sw track. Idk. I don’t understand.

Eric Webb mentioned even down into Port O'Connor at risk

Yeah I don't get it either I was suspicious of the EPS all day before this. Galveston isn't even under a hurricane watch...

They should be at 4am

NHC nudged forecast track westward in last advisory. Is a further west trend in play today? Eric Webb and Joe Bastardi think so:

@BigJoeBastardi — In this case the exact track is very crucial.because near and 50 miles east of the center, this will be a devastating hurricane at Landfall, Opposite Rita which shifted away from Houston, the worry here is the feature will shift toward Houston. Keep an eye on NHC ideas

@webberweather — I'm still expecting more west shifts in track forecasts for #Laura today. Even vs the new 0z EPS, #Laura is on the SW edge of the ensemble track envelope & is ~25 mi SW of the mean. Landfall risk is increasing along the upper-central TX coast from Galveston to Port O'Connor #txwx