STORM2K

The pattern across the Atlantic looks scary for the Gulf. I see a lot of ridging all across the Atlantic and into the east.

Cat 5 in the gulf isn't so fun right now.


My sincere thoughts and prayers for y'all in SE Texas and SW Louisiana, you're in for a long night and miserable couple of weeks.

The window to evacuate is still open, if you are in the path. I left for Katrina, and don't regret it one bit.

Absolute insanity with Laura Houston/Galveston definitely is lucky with this one could have easily been them

Brent wrote:Absolute insanity with Laura Houston/Galveston definitely is lucky with this one could have easily been them

Two days ago, "king" euro had it going right up Galveston Bay. The GFS stuck with SW LA. But the GFS sucks, right?

dhweather wrote:

Brent wrote:Absolute insanity with Laura Houston/Galveston definitely is lucky with this one could have easily been them

Two days ago, "king" euro had it going right up Galveston Bay. The GFS stuck with SW LA. But the GFS sucks, right?

Both of them had open waves a few days ago

It was not a good storm for them in general but yeah the Euro especially sucked

Oh and the EPS being all over Texas

Brent wrote:

dhweather wrote:

Brent wrote:Absolute insanity with Laura Houston/Galveston definitely is lucky with this one could have easily been them

Two days ago, "king" euro had it going right up Galveston Bay. The GFS stuck with SW LA. But the GFS sucks, right?

Both of them had open waves a few days ago

It was not a good storm for them in general but yeah the Euro especially sucked

Oh and the EPS being all over Texas

Yeah the EPS mean was literally right over my house for several runs. Big fail. But boy am I glad it failed lol I want no part of that storm.

Sure don't see these kind of observations very often:

Current conditions at
Lake Charles Regional Airport (KLCH)
Lat: 30.13°NLon: 93.23°WElev: 7ft.

Fog and Windy

77°F
25°C

Humidity NA
Wind Speed E 98 G 132 mph
Barometer 28.31 in (959.4 mb)
Dewpoint N/A
Visibility 0.25 mi
Last update 27 Aug 1:53 am CDT

Well it’s back to model watching for me. Didn’t catch much of a break after Laura. CMC, ICON, & UKMET all have something to watch in the Caribbean about a week from now.

Cpv17 wrote:Well it’s back to model watching for me. Didn’t catch much of a break after Laura. CMC, ICON, & UKMET all have something to watch in the Caribbean about a week from now.

Yep, no rest for the weary it looks like. 12z Canadian Ensembles have several members that take the Caribbean system as hurricane towards TX by next weekend.

South Texas Storms wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Well it’s back to model watching for me. Didn’t catch much of a break after Laura. CMC, ICON, & UKMET all have something to watch in the Caribbean about a week from now.

Yep, no rest for the weary it looks like. 12z Canadian Ensembles have several members that take the Caribbean system as hurricane towards TX by next weekend.

There are a lot of EPS tracks deep in the Gulf by next weekend now if we remember the EPS was too far west with Laura so..

Brent wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Well it’s back to model watching for me. Didn’t catch much of a break after Laura. CMC, ICON, & UKMET all have something to watch in the Caribbean about a week from now.

Yep, no rest for the weary it looks like. 12z Canadian Ensembles have several members that take the Caribbean system as hurricane towards TX by next weekend.

There are a lot of EPS tracks deep in the Gulf by next weekend now if we remember the EPS was too far west with Laura so..
https://i.ibb.co/JsRcP4K/ecens-2020-08-27-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

It even looks like the GEFS and GEFS-Para are latching onto it as well.

Wonder if that rain will make it to DFW? Would be nice. http://cdn.tegna-media.com/khou/weather ... x_anim.gif

funster wrote:Wonder if that rain will make it to DFW? Would be nice. http://cdn.tegna-media.com/khou/weather ... x_anim.gif

Yes please

Before the torch happens tomorrow and Saturday

I haven't looked in a couple of days but the GFS still has that big cold front around Labor Day

2.52" of rain from Laura, with max wind gust of 44mph. The eye traveled about 30 miles east of Texarkana.

Fingers crossed for a pattern change! EWX discussion:

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Hot and dry will continue through the end of the weekend. Long range
models, for a couple of runs now, are pointing toward a pattern
change early next week. Will start to bring some small pop back into
the coastal plains on Sunday and Monday. The pattern shift will be a
upper trof that digs down from the central Rockies and moves across
the southern plains Tue/Wed. There does appear to be enough troughing
over West and Southwest Texas during that time period to carry 20-30
percent pop...especially across the Hill Country and western areas.
The system could drag a weak front or surface trough down into the
region as well. Will keep watching the trend of this system but at
least for now will carry some hope for some much needed rainfall.

Still signs we may see some relief here early September.

Once again though, when Atlantic an system moves off just our east and we fall under subsidence it gets HOT. Happens almost every time.

Ntxw wrote:Still signs we may see some relief here early September.

Once again though, when Atlantic an system moves off just our east and we fall under subsidence it gets HOT. Happens almost every time.

I was expecting to receive at least 5 inches from Laura, but I only had about a tenth of an inch. After evacuating, I was thankful to return to a house and very little damage. Prayers to those directly hit by Laura.

Damn it is hot as hell still. Just gotta get through Momday and our cool down begins on Tuesday with some promisimg rain in the forecast. Wednesday is looking to stay in the 80's with a north breeze. Come to papa!!!!!

Thank God August is almost over. Live in Hill country south of Fredericksburg and we have had 0.7" since May. 15 day forecast does call for some temps around 63-64 so that would be nice.

just a few more days guys...