STORM2K

Hottest day of the year yesterday. 109 and no breeze. Absolutely miserable.

DFW just upgraded to an excessive heat warning

But there's hope(ironically Tuesday is the day we go to the fall thread )

If you`re wanting more rain and craving and cooler weather, then
have no fear, as we will see quite an active period as we move
toward mid week with a Fall-like cold front mid-late week. A
deeper, much more vigorous mid level shortwave trough will begin
organizing and moving across the Central Rockies. Cloud cover and
outflow should help keep temperatures from the mid 80s along the
Red River to the lower 90s as far south as the Interstate 20
corridor. Central Texas will deal with one more scorching day with
highs ranging from 95 to 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon. After
lingering morning storms on Tuesday, a stronger cold front moves
into Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon. Increasing large-scale ascent in
advance of the vigorous Rockies mid level trough will coincide
with afternoon heating to form a cluster of strong to severe
storms across Oklahoma and across the Red River. A severe weather
threat will likely materialize north of I-20 with the highest risk
along the immediate Red River Valley. Southwesterly deep layer
shear is expected to approach 40 knots across this area and should
combine with ample instability as we move into Tuesday evening
and night with damaging winds and large hail the primary concerns.
In addition, more rounds of locally heavy rainfall across the
northern tier counties may lead to some flooding issues and
responses on the headwaters of the Trinity and Brazos basins, as
well as the Sulphur and Sabine. We`ll continue to refine this
forecast as we move into early this week.

There will likely be lingering convection and plentiful cloud
cover Tuesday morning. These factors will combine with light north
winds for highs only in the 80s areawide on Wednesday. Meanwhile,
low temperatures Wednesday morning start off in the 60s across
rural areas with lower 70s within the heat island that is the
immediate DFW Metroplex. We`ll experience dry and near, or below
seasonable temperatures for the end of the week into the early
part of Labor Day Weekend. I expect a brief warm up Thursday
before another backdoor cold front arrives Friday and next
Saturday. Highs will remain in the 80s north, while the lower 90s
will dominate much of Central Texas...which I don`t believe too
many people will mind. This week will definitely not be your
typical end of August into Labor Day weekend, so be sure to stay
abreast of the forecast if you`re planning outdoor activities.

I don't know what the max heat index was yesterday; Mabry shows 111 on its hourly; a station near me had 114 at one time I think.

utpmg wrote:I don't know what the max heat index was yesterday; Mabry shows 111 on its hourly; a station near me had 114 at one time I think.

The heat index yesterday for me was the hottest it’s been all summer at 112. Sitting at 107 right now so not quite as bad.

Heat index was 115 at DFW at 2pm

Brent wrote:Heat index was 115 at DFW at 2pm

What has the dew points been like up there?

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:Heat index was 115 at DFW at 2pm

What has the dew points been like up there?

Hovering around 70.

DFW hit a record high today 106F. It's not too common to go above 105 with dews ~70.

Ntxw wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:Heat index was 115 at DFW at 2pm

What has the dew points been like up there?

Hovering around 70.

DFW hit a record high today 106F. It's not too common to go above 105 with dews ~70.

I believe that would be hottest day of the entire summer too

Nice storm cluster hitting western DFW right now. Looks like it will skirt the Farmers Branch area although I can feel the wind shift and see lightning. Don't recall evening storms forecasted but I could be wrong. When it is 106 outside a random thunderstorm is the last thing on the mind.

gpsnowman wrote:Nice storm cluster hitting western DFW right now. Looks like it will skirt the Farmers Branch area although I can feel the wind shift and see lightning. Don't recall evening storms forecasted but I could be wrong. When it is 106 outside a random thunderstorm is the last thing on the mind.

This storm meant business in Northern Tarrant county! I saw the outflow boundary come through before the storm so assumed it was outflow dominant, but as it was passing South of me, the wind picked up from the East and hard! There are several fences down and roof shingles gone near me.

Amazing rain. We missed it all before, so I finally got some this time.

Only got 0.4" from Laura at my house in Longview. I think it's only the 2nd, maybe 3rd, rain of the month (first rain since the first week of the month at least).

Hoping for cooler and wetter weather this week!

FYI - CFB is on TV tonight! (Central Ark vs. Austin Peay... but beggers can't be choosers!)

It was brutal hot yesterday with at record of 106F but the rain has been awesome! It's still raining pretty good IMBY but the heaviest action missed the big airport again. DFW reporting under an inch but Love and McKinney both reporting over 2.5" That will put DFW back to just below normal for August but we will need another 1/2" or so at the airport between now and the 1st to get above normal.

00
FXUS64 KHGX 301050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday Afternoon]...

An upper level trough will remain over the LA region this morning
and gradually shift east during the day. Surface analysis shows
that the higher moisture surge that was expected for today does
not make it into the local area until late tonight and Monday.
Some moisture does move into the local waters this morning from
the Gulf, but it is expected to only expand subtly into the
southern and central portions of SE Texas this afternoon and
evening. With the presence of upper level trough aloft, we will
likely see activity starting up along the waters and coastal
regions this morning. Once the seabreeze develops, we can expect
showers and thunderstorms to build further inland during the late
morning and afternoon hours. This activity will dissipate during
the evening and early night hours. The stronger surge of moisture
is expected to be across the southern half of the CWA by early
Monday morning and across most of local area by mid morning.
Models show PWs of around 1.8 to 2.2 inches across SE Texas by
around 10 AM CDT and with an unstable air mass in place, it will
not take much for showers to develop across portions of local area
Monday morning and Monday afternoon.

HEAT [TODAY]:

High temperatures today will likely reach the mid 90s to low 100s
this afternoon. Portions of SE Texas will be able to obtain heat
indicies in the 108-114 degrees F range once again today. A Heat
Advisory has been issued and will be in effect from 10 AM CDT to 8
PM CDT today. It is HIGHLY recommended to practice Heat Safety if
you plan to spend time in the outdoors and/or in areas with poor
ventilation. Dont forget your pets! Surface temperatures could be
well above these temperatures on their tender paws.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...[Monday Night through Saturday]
The surge of deeper tropical moisture (though not as rich as
previously indicated by model runs 2-4 days ago) should be over the
northern counties and Monday night as a shot of drier air and
arrives from the southwest on the increasing LLJ. Storms should be
waning in the evening. Expecting seasonal temperatures Tuesday for
the first day of September and mostly rainfree. While Wednesday will
be something of a transition day with an upper trough moving through
OK/NTX with a trailing cold front sagging southeast through the
state and potentially getting close to the CWA. The GFS/ECMWF have
very different takes on how this plays out. GFS get the frontal
boundary near SETX and convection takes over and pushes southward
with storms Thursday over the area eventually the upper trough dips
all the way down near CRP and the boundary remains active Friday and
the front surges into the coastal areas by late Saturday with more
storms. The ECMWF on the other hand stalls the front much further
northwest and instead of swinging the upper trough through it starts
to cutoff and dip southwest with enough ridging over SETX to remain
mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Sadly both are consistent with their
prior runs so not much help there. At this point will favor the
ECMWF as the GFS seems too energetic and fast with the upper
trough...it is still late summer. So will go with warmer and drier
conditions in the Wed-Fri period and carry some low chances for
rainfall.

45

&&

.TROPICS...
As for the tropics the much advertised CPC heating up of the
tropical season has certainly occurred and the latest advisory is
pinging on 3 systems with middling chances for development through 5
days. The system moving off of Africa in a few days looks to have
good chances for development as well with the ECMWF ensemble and
deterministic pinging it hard. For now the systems moving through
the MDR look to be stuck in a pattern of fairly fast moving
westerly movements trapped under large Atlantic ridge.

45

&&

.CLIMATE...

Galveston bottomed out yesterday at 86 which now ties the record for
the warmest record high minimum in August. This is now the latest in
the year to occur. Interestingly the 86 degree readings have only
taken place since 2019...August for that matter now has just 8 days
with recent record high mins that still stand prior 2000 the
remaining 23 days record high minimum temperatures are held by years
from 2000 to the present.

45

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

The northern sites will have periods of MVFR conditions through
around 15Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions expected for all sites.
S winds will be at 5-10 KTS today..up to 15 KTS along the coastal
sites. Iso-Sct SH/TS are expected to develop today along the
seabreeze boundaries and could occasionally affect sites IAH and
southward. Activity will dissipate in the evening. Winds will
decrease to around 5 KTS tonight.

24

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow is expected to continue today. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning over the
coastal waters, as moisture moves into the local waters from the
Gulf. Winds will strengthen early next week into mid week as the
pressure gradient tightens. In response, seas will build to
around 4-6 FT. Caution Flags will likely be needed at times. Winds
relax and seas decrease during the second half of the work week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 79 99 80 99 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 99 81 97 81 96 / 40 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 93 84 91 / 40 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...
Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Looks like the GFS is projecting pretty big rain for north Texas over the next two weeks (much of it this coming week). Hope it happens!

TarrantWx wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:Nice storm cluster hitting western DFW right now. Looks like it will skirt the Farmers Branch area although I can feel the wind shift and see lightning. Don't recall evening storms forecasted but I could be wrong. When it is 106 outside a random thunderstorm is the last thing on the mind.

This storm meant business in Northern Tarrant county! I saw the outflow boundary come through before the storm so assumed it was outflow dominant, but as it was passing South of me, the wind picked up from the East and hard! There are several fences down and roof shingles gone near me.

My parents live in Northeast Parker County. They had the metal roof peeled back over the kitchen and the rain came in and soaked the cabinets. Also took down a 30' windmill that was in concrete and damaged a new barn.

Hottest days are definitely behind us now. WPC highlights anywhere from 3-6" of rain the next week for the Red River valley and towards I-20 corridor. Successful fronts, slow moving boundaries will aid.

Fall here we come!

Ntxw wrote:Hottest days are definitely behind us now. WPC highlights anywhere from 3-6" of rain the next week for the Red River valley and towards I-20 corridor. Successful fronts, slow moving boundaries will aid.

Fall here we come!

the hi-res models so far are pointing towards that much rain and possibly flooding just by Wednesday

Still 100+ and heat advisories in Austin area.

Ntxw wrote:Hottest days are definitely behind us now. WPC highlights anywhere from 3-6" of rain the next week for the Red River valley and towards I-20 corridor. Successful fronts, slow moving boundaries will aid.

Fall here we come!

Please share with your neighbors to the south who are still dry and baking!