Texas Fall 2020

[gulfcoast200]

I see absolutely nothing exciting in Texas. Not even any hints.

Yeah this is getting pretty lame. It needs to get wet or cold or both quick. A November not to remember on tap.

Lame is an understatement... I have $2500 worth of ryegrass seed, most of it already out on the ground and the best chance its had was a heavy mist two weeks ago.

[Brent]

I see absolutely nothing exciting in Texas. Not even any hints.

Yeah this is getting pretty lame. It needs to get wet or cold or both quick. A November not to remember on tap.

Seriously

Winter was the 2 days in October wasn't it

[Yukon Cornelius]

Got a few degrees colder than forecasted. 33 this morning with a decent frost. Too bad the cold will be short lived.

[bubba hotep]

What a bore this stretch of weather has been but it's been great for my fall garden.

[nathanc1969]

According to Larry Cosgrove, no winter until early/mid January.

[HockeyTx82]

According to Larry Cosgrove, no winter until early/mid January.

So instead of Winter always 2 weeks away now it is always 2 months away...... got it!

[Brent]

According to Larry Cosgrove, no winter until early/mid January.

So instead of Winter always 2 weeks away now it is always 2 months away...... got it!

lol I heard winter was gonna be frontloaded... nobody really knows if we'll even have a winter

Otherwise I see no signs of anything interesting through Thanksgiving

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I personally would rather have a warm November. History says we have a better chance at DJF being cooler/stormier.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

According to Larry Cosgrove, no winter until early/mid January.

Cosgrove has been pretty poor with long term predictions the last 2.5 winters, so that’s a positive in my book.

[Cerlin]

Been holding off on saying something but it’s been about 6 runs now that the GFS is showing some potential for action around the 23rd of November. Originally it was showing a massive ridge placing itself over the bulk of the US through the end of November, but there’s a chance an arctic blast coupled with a few strong troughs could break into the area and give us some wintry threats, or at the very least, some colder temps. Currently, 18z GFS is showing some snow for the panhandle and Oklahoma around that time. The GFS sniffed out the ice storm pretty early for Oklahoma in October so it’s worth monitoring.

[Patriot12]

^^Great news

[underthwx]

Been holding off on saying something but it’s been about 6 runs now that the GFS is showing some potential for action around the 23rd of November. Originally it was showing a massive ridge placing itself over the bulk of the US through the end of November, but there’s a chance an arctic blast coupled with a few strong troughs could break into the area and give us some wintry threats, or at the very least, some colder temps. Currently, 18z GFS is showing some snow for the panhandle and Oklahoma around that time. The GFS sniffed out the ice storm pretty early for Oklahoma in October so it’s worth monitoring.

Yeah....Oklahoma had an ice storm in October.... I believe on the 20th?.... Pretty serious ice storm from what I have heard....but down here it feels more like fourth of july weather...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Well, things I’ve noticed recently this “fall”. Warm season spring weeds are starting to come up, Robins and other migratory birds are starting to return which usually happens when winter is over, my livestock are still sporting a summer coat when they should have put their winter coat on a month ago, my grass went dormant with the ice storm but is now back green to where I’ll have to mow again. On top of all of that today is suppose to be in the 80s. WTH?

[CaptinCrunch]

Nothing to be concerned with through Thanksgiving. Nothing in the long range worth discussing since the long range forecast has not be all that good the last few winters.

Hopefully La Nina will remain in the weak category this winter but unfortunately I don't think it will make any impact on our winter. 20 years ago we could say a weak La Nina, Neutral, or weak El Nino winter could all play out with keeping NTX with a average winter season, but now that's no longer the case. Since the Super El Nino of 2015 it hasn't made much if any difference how those 3 events would shape our winter.

I don't count a brief flurry as a snow event, or even a winter event at that, it's no different calling a brief shower in spring a weather event. I'm fully on board with this all falling in to the area of climate change over the last 10-20 years, let's face it, the winters of today haven't come close to the Winters of the 60s-90s.

[starsfan65]

Nothing to be concerned with through Thanksgiving. Nothing in the long range worth discussing since the long range forecast has not be all that good the last few winters.

Hopefully La Nina will remain in the weak category this winter but unfortunately I don't think it will make any impact on our winter. 20 years ago we could say a weak La Nina, Neutral, or weak El Nino winter could all play out with keeping NTX with a average winter season, but now that's no longer the case. Since the Super El Nino of 2015 it hasn't made much if any difference how those 3 events would shape our winter.

I don't count a brief flurry as a snow event, or even a winter event at that, it's no different calling a brief shower in spring a weather event. I'm fully on board with this all falling in to the area of climate change over the last 10-20 years, let's face it, the winters of today haven't come close to the Winters of the 60s-90s.

Don't give up hope!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Not giving up hope, but also not getting any hopes up.

[bubba hotep]

Brief period of -EPO coming up but then things are looking like +EPO and +NAO for December. Hopefully, that will change or there aren't many options for getting winter weather down in Texas.

[Brent]

Not giving up hope, but also not getting any hopes up.

Yup years of nothing has gotten me to that point too

I'm gonna see snow on vacation almost certainly in January (probably in Colorado at this point) but I'm not holding my breath on snow around here that's for sure

[cheezyWXguy]

What’s the big scoop on that cutoff the gfs shows rolling in by day 9? Wondering if there might be some potential for late severe season potential. Gfs has been pretty consistent for such long range on moving it through, but I highly suspect instability will be lacking. Still, if it sets up with a neutral/negative tilt it might make for some favorable shear profiles. So much speculation though, and so little else to look at right now in terms of our weather. Hopefully it, and the front advertised at day 7 ends up as a good chance of rain and nothing else

[Ralph's Weather]

Just had to cancel Thanksgiving week in NM. I sure hope I get up there sometime this winter.