Texas Fall 2020

[TeamPlayersBlue]

06 GFS is a hybrid of the Euro and previous GFS runs.

[Cerlin]

I honestly think we’ll see something in the middle of the GFS and Euro. Most runs the GFS is way too progressive and bullish and most runs the Euro is too conservative. We’ll likely see some kind of hybrid of that (maybe what the 6z GFS shows) IMO.

[Brent]

I don't know what the weather apps usually use but it has mid 50s and 70s for highs Wednesday and Thursday which looks like a good middle ground

Fwiw Dan Brounoff at KRLD put on Facebook 60s and rain Wednesday

Also mid 50s would be near record lows as it is(55/71 Wednesday 56 Thursday)

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS back to colder solution. Lows around 50 everyday for about a week with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Wed behind the front could stay in the 50s if there is post frontal moisture.

[weatherdude1108]

Getting some decent moderate to heavy accumulating thundershowers here. Maybe a little training setting up(?).

[Brent]

FWD is definitely leaning cooler

High temperatures Tuesday will likely range from the mid 80s near
the Red River to the lower 90s across the central and south, but
a faster FROPA time could change these significantly. Lows Tuesday
night will be much cooler, ranging from the mid 50s in the
northwest to the mid 60s in the southeast. Wednesday will likely
feel like true Fall in North Texas with highs generally in the
70s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s. Thursday should be a bit
warmer (mid 70s to lower 80s) due to more sun and weakening low
level cold air advection.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

50s before mid September is absolutely insane. I love it

[gatorcane]

Posted in the Global Models threads but impressive indeed Texans. Enjoy

[gpsnowman]

I happen to be off on Tuesday. Who's up for some front tracking?

[cstrunk]

I've had 7.5" of rain at my house in Longview in the last week. Insane.

0.4" from Laura last Thursday
0.45" Saturday night
0.7" Tuesday
1.5" Wednesday morning
4.5" this morning (Thursday)

[weatherdude1108]

0.75" here yesterday. Need more. Thundering around. Maybe we'll get some more with these tropical downpours meandering around today(?).

[Ralph's Weather]

I don't currently have a rain gauge at home, but radar shows me somewhere around 7 inches with 10-12 inches just to my S & SW. The rain continues steady here this morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the CMC has gone with Euro now with the upper low over the SW vs Plains. The GFS has a very interesting Tuesday night for the Panhandle with a mix of precip. For my fellow northern NM mountain people, they look to get a significant snow from this.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Based on 12z guidance, the GFS has shifted the trough a tad to the west, but the Euro has caved to the GFS. Whats up with the Euro lately? Great for the GFS but the Euro is struggling. Is it possible the lack of commercial aircraft data is really hurting it that much or is the GFS score just that good lately?

[Brent]

The Euro has DFW in the low to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon with rain showers very sharp gradient east and south of DFW though

Near record lows on Thursday morning too mid 50s

[Ntxw]

The Euro has DFW in the low to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon with rain showers very sharp gradient east and south of DFW much warmer

Near record lows on Thursday morning too mid 50s

As expected the models have gradually come together for the middle path. The crazy cutoff stall from the Euro, the too progressive trough from the GFS. But both are now quite similar. Trough coming into the front range of the Rockies and our first Fall front. We should notice a significant difference behind it. Might even be some snow in the northwest panhandle like Dalhart.

It will feel more like late October than early September!

[gto67]

We are having heavy rain in Weimar, finally.

[BTAYLOR5021]

La Nina 2017-2018 was decent in terms of temps. Last week of Dec 2017 turned seasonably cold. Jan 2018 was cold with 3 subfreezing days and 3 or 4 days of a Trace of winter precip. A major winter storm hit east Texas that winter. I believe rain was plentiful that winter and well.

[Ntxw]

Everything is now in agreement. For many 60s/70s for highs coming Wednesday/Thursday with a brisk NW wind and lasting through the next weekend (80s for the southern part of the state). First 50s lows in a long while and first of the Fall season. Outlying cold spots will be in the 40s.

Open those windows! it will have some staying power and to be honest this is likely the beginning of a step down process as the seasonal changes to air masses occur and diminishing daylight.

[rwfromkansas]

Raining! I didn’t even know there was a chance today. Lol.