Texas Fall 2020

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dhweather
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#501 Postby dhweather » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:17 am

dhweather wrote:
Brent wrote:Looks like Dallas will stay in the 40s with rain for sure nothing has really changed with the NAM in range it's gonna be nasty especially Monday and Monday Night with strong north winds our first official cold rain of the season(not surprised though it would have been absolutely insane to get a winter storm this early) even the fact it's only a few hours away is insane

Hopefully we'll have a setup like this in a month or two with colder air because nobody wants that much ice

Still a lot of uncertainty about how much ice occurs up towards the Falls there is still a wide range of possible accumulations(hopefully how warm its been will limit some of the totals) but unfortunately it looks like the snow will be even further NW

Meanwhile Louisiana may have another hurricane and then it merges with our front



Conversely, it could be like other recent years, and be our one real shot of cold weather, then a mild winter. :roll:


One month later, the dry mild winter reigns supreme. Again.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#502 Postby jasons2k » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:29 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#503 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:25 pm

Some interesting changes on the 12z runs as the models seem to be struggling with the current MJO.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#504 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:17 pm

SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#505 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.


Frozen or liquid? I'm brain dead right now so not remembering what this means for us.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#506 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:25 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.


Frozen or liquid? I'm brain dead right now so not remembering what this means for us.


I would take rain at this point the rain chances this week are quite blah there are some models dry on Sunday at this point
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#507 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:23 am

Brent wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.


Frozen or liquid? I'm brain dead right now so not remembering what this means for us.


I would take rain at this point the rain chances this week are quite blah there are some models dry on Sunday at this point


Yea, models and NWS were both big on this weekends rain event and now it's basically nothing. NWS has gone from a multi day rain event with 70% of storms on Sunday to 30% showers on Sunday morning lol

The Euro and GFS are in agreement that we will see a couple of systems this week with maybe even a bowling ball low or two but there is no real cold air over the top.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#508 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:09 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.


Frozen or liquid? I'm brain dead right now so not remembering what this means for us.


Probably liquid. We are suffering from short to mid term drought conditions right now courtesy of La Nina and that will continue. As far as cold air, there is very little to be found across the US at the moment.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#509 Postby TropicalTundra » Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:25 pm

GFS drunk as usual :think:

Image
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Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#510 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:33 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:GFS drunk as usual :think:

https://i.imgur.com/EPJcvmZ.jpg


The lack of cold air up north is a major concern but this would give someone a fighting chance

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#511 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:40 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:GFS drunk as usual :think:

https://i.imgur.com/EPJcvmZ.jpg


Lol :spam:
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#512 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:50 pm

Code: Select all

Date   Tahiti (hPa)   Darwin (hPa)   Daily Contribution   30 day Av. SOI   90 day Av. SOI
22 Nov 2020   1010.60   1008.90   -7.51   6.66   7.94
21 Nov 2020   1011.63   1008.30   2.86   7.21   8.15
20 Nov 2020   1013.38   1007.85   16.86   7.44   8.23
19 Nov 2020   1014.15   1008.10   20.17   6.99   8.14
18 Nov 2020   1014.69   1008.65   20.10   6.27   8.18
17 Nov 2020   1014.71   1009.05   17.69   5.38   8.25
16 Nov 2020   1014.73   1010.05   11.45   4.53   8.37
15 Nov 2020   1014.74   1010.30   9.92   3.83   8.36
14 Nov 2020   1014.21   1008.55   17.69   3.29   8.21
13 Nov 2020   1014.20   1009.55   11.26   2.46   8.00
12 Nov 2020   1014.64   1010.70   6.74   2.01   7.93
11 Nov 2020   1014.73   1010.85   6.36   2.13   7.88
10 Nov 2020   1013.35   1009.90   3.62   2.29   7.74
9 Nov 2020   1012.67   1009.40   2.48   2.57   7.60
8 Nov 2020   1014.23   1009.25   13.36   2.96   7.67
7 Nov 2020   1014.72   1010.80   6.61   3.17   7.67
6 Nov 2020   1013.29   1011.15   -4.71   3.41   7.70
5 Nov 2020   1013.57   1011.60   -5.79   4.04   7.84
4 Nov 2020   1015.26   1011.85   3.37   4.66   8.16
3 Nov 2020   1016.75   1011.55   14.76   4.88   8.41
2 Nov 2020   1017.05   1010.50   23.35   4.62   8.39
1 Nov 2020   1016.75   1009.35   28.76   4.19   8.16


Fairly big SOI drop relative to the base Nina state. Fall of over 30+ points since the start of the month, so after the Thanksgiving holiday the pattern will be more Nino-esque with the subtropical jet. We just got to find cold air somewhere.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#513 Postby aggiecutter » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:21 pm

:uarrow: Late Fall-Early Winter Severe Weather Season.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#514 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:

Code: Select all

Date   Tahiti (hPa)   Darwin (hPa)   Daily Contribution   30 day Av. SOI   90 day Av. SOI
22 Nov 2020   1010.60   1008.90   -7.51   6.66   7.94
21 Nov 2020   1011.63   1008.30   2.86   7.21   8.15
20 Nov 2020   1013.38   1007.85   16.86   7.44   8.23
19 Nov 2020   1014.15   1008.10   20.17   6.99   8.14
18 Nov 2020   1014.69   1008.65   20.10   6.27   8.18
17 Nov 2020   1014.71   1009.05   17.69   5.38   8.25
16 Nov 2020   1014.73   1010.05   11.45   4.53   8.37
15 Nov 2020   1014.74   1010.30   9.92   3.83   8.36
14 Nov 2020   1014.21   1008.55   17.69   3.29   8.21
13 Nov 2020   1014.20   1009.55   11.26   2.46   8.00
12 Nov 2020   1014.64   1010.70   6.74   2.01   7.93
11 Nov 2020   1014.73   1010.85   6.36   2.13   7.88
10 Nov 2020   1013.35   1009.90   3.62   2.29   7.74
9 Nov 2020   1012.67   1009.40   2.48   2.57   7.60
8 Nov 2020   1014.23   1009.25   13.36   2.96   7.67
7 Nov 2020   1014.72   1010.80   6.61   3.17   7.67
6 Nov 2020   1013.29   1011.15   -4.71   3.41   7.70
5 Nov 2020   1013.57   1011.60   -5.79   4.04   7.84
4 Nov 2020   1015.26   1011.85   3.37   4.66   8.16
3 Nov 2020   1016.75   1011.55   14.76   4.88   8.41
2 Nov 2020   1017.05   1010.50   23.35   4.62   8.39
1 Nov 2020   1016.75   1009.35   28.76   4.19   8.16


Fairly big SOI drop relative to the base Nina state. Fall of over 30+ points since the start of the month, so after the Thanksgiving holiday the pattern will be more Nino-esque with the subtropical jet. We just got to find cold air somewhere.


Should keep temps pretty seasonal for Texas with numerous chances of rain.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#515 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:35 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:

Code: Select all

Date   Tahiti (hPa)   Darwin (hPa)   Daily Contribution   30 day Av. SOI   90 day Av. SOI
22 Nov 2020   1010.60   1008.90   -7.51   6.66   7.94
21 Nov 2020   1011.63   1008.30   2.86   7.21   8.15
20 Nov 2020   1013.38   1007.85   16.86   7.44   8.23
19 Nov 2020   1014.15   1008.10   20.17   6.99   8.14
18 Nov 2020   1014.69   1008.65   20.10   6.27   8.18
17 Nov 2020   1014.71   1009.05   17.69   5.38   8.25
16 Nov 2020   1014.73   1010.05   11.45   4.53   8.37
15 Nov 2020   1014.74   1010.30   9.92   3.83   8.36
14 Nov 2020   1014.21   1008.55   17.69   3.29   8.21
13 Nov 2020   1014.20   1009.55   11.26   2.46   8.00
12 Nov 2020   1014.64   1010.70   6.74   2.01   7.93
11 Nov 2020   1014.73   1010.85   6.36   2.13   7.88
10 Nov 2020   1013.35   1009.90   3.62   2.29   7.74
9 Nov 2020   1012.67   1009.40   2.48   2.57   7.60
8 Nov 2020   1014.23   1009.25   13.36   2.96   7.67
7 Nov 2020   1014.72   1010.80   6.61   3.17   7.67
6 Nov 2020   1013.29   1011.15   -4.71   3.41   7.70
5 Nov 2020   1013.57   1011.60   -5.79   4.04   7.84
4 Nov 2020   1015.26   1011.85   3.37   4.66   8.16
3 Nov 2020   1016.75   1011.55   14.76   4.88   8.41
2 Nov 2020   1017.05   1010.50   23.35   4.62   8.39
1 Nov 2020   1016.75   1009.35   28.76   4.19   8.16


Fairly big SOI drop relative to the base Nina state. Fall of over 30+ points since the start of the month, so after the Thanksgiving holiday the pattern will be more Nino-esque with the subtropical jet. We just got to find cold air somewhere.


Should keep temps pretty seasonal for Texas with numerous chances of rain.

https://i.ibb.co/NT1yHfQ/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-fh168-384.gif


yeah not seeing much cold air but we need some good rains today was a failure
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#516 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:44 pm

The NWS FTW stated that precip was in the forecast, they just couldn't nail down the date, time, location, amount or type, but was confindent in their forecast. :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#517 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:04 pm

Latest FWD AFD notes the potential for strong storms on Friday. GFS shows up to 1200j/kg of elevated instability over the metro, but surface temps in only the mid 60s will likely temper that threat

Edit: was looking at an old run, and instability looks a little lower and further east. Who knows
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#518 Postby Brent » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:23 pm

Interesting Euro run :spam:

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#519 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:33 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Latest FWD AFD notes the potential for strong storms on Friday. GFS shows up to 1200j/kg of elevated instability over the metro, but surface temps in only the mid 60s will likely temper that threat

Edit: was looking at an old run, and instability looks a little lower and further east. Who knows


Wednesday might not be a complete dud either. Some meager sbcape, a bit more elevated cape, and pretty strong low level srh according to 3k nam. I think the main question is whether forcing will be enough to break the weak cap.
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Re: Texas Fall 2020

#520 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:34 pm

Too bad this pattern isn't rocking in January. Constant stream of systems being forced under the block but there really isn't any cold air them to pull down.

Image
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