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Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:17 am
by dhweather
dhweather wrote:Brent wrote:Looks like Dallas will stay in the 40s with rain for sure nothing has really changed with the NAM in range it's gonna be nasty especially Monday and Monday Night with strong north winds our first official cold rain of the season(not surprised though it would have been absolutely insane to get a winter storm this early) even the fact it's only a few hours away is insane
Hopefully we'll have a setup like this in a month or two with colder air because nobody wants that much ice
Still a lot of uncertainty about how much ice occurs up towards the Falls there is still a wide range of possible accumulations(hopefully how warm its been will limit some of the totals) but unfortunately it looks like the snow will be even further NW
Meanwhile Louisiana may have another hurricane and then it merges with our front
Conversely, it could be like other recent years, and be our one real shot of cold weather, then a mild winter.
One month later, the dry mild winter reigns supreme. Again.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:29 pm
by jasons2k
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:25 pm
by bubba hotep
Some interesting changes on the 12z runs as the models seem to be struggling with the current MJO.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:17 pm
by Ntxw
SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:19 pm
by HockeyTx82
Ntxw wrote:SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.
Frozen or liquid? I'm brain dead right now so not remembering what this means for us.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:25 pm
by Brent
HockeyTx82 wrote:Ntxw wrote:SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.
Frozen or liquid? I'm brain dead right now so not remembering what this means for us.
I would take rain at this point the rain chances this week are quite blah there are some models dry on Sunday at this point
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:23 am
by bubba hotep
Brent wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:Ntxw wrote:SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.
Frozen or liquid? I'm brain dead right now so not remembering what this means for us.
I would take rain at this point the rain chances this week are quite blah there are some models dry on Sunday at this point
Yea, models and NWS were both big on this weekends rain event and now it's basically nothing. NWS has gone from a multi day rain event with 70% of storms on Sunday to 30% showers on Sunday morning lol
The Euro and GFS are in agreement that we will see a couple of systems this week with maybe even a bowling ball low or two but there is no real cold air over the top.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:09 pm
by Ntxw
HockeyTx82 wrote:Ntxw wrote:SOI crash is coming the last week of November if you take the pressure forecast verbatim between Darwin and Tahiti. Looking for a major storm or two in the southwest to south-central plains shortly thereafter.
Frozen or liquid? I'm brain dead right now so not remembering what this means for us.
Probably liquid. We are suffering from short to mid term drought conditions right now courtesy of La Nina and that will continue. As far as cold air, there is very little to be found across the US at the moment.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:25 pm
by TropicalTundra
GFS drunk as usual
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:33 pm
by bubba hotep
The lack of cold air up north is a major concern but this would give someone a fighting chance
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:40 pm
by Brent
Lol
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:50 pm
by Ntxw
Code: Select all
Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
22 Nov 2020 1010.60 1008.90 -7.51 6.66 7.94
21 Nov 2020 1011.63 1008.30 2.86 7.21 8.15
20 Nov 2020 1013.38 1007.85 16.86 7.44 8.23
19 Nov 2020 1014.15 1008.10 20.17 6.99 8.14
18 Nov 2020 1014.69 1008.65 20.10 6.27 8.18
17 Nov 2020 1014.71 1009.05 17.69 5.38 8.25
16 Nov 2020 1014.73 1010.05 11.45 4.53 8.37
15 Nov 2020 1014.74 1010.30 9.92 3.83 8.36
14 Nov 2020 1014.21 1008.55 17.69 3.29 8.21
13 Nov 2020 1014.20 1009.55 11.26 2.46 8.00
12 Nov 2020 1014.64 1010.70 6.74 2.01 7.93
11 Nov 2020 1014.73 1010.85 6.36 2.13 7.88
10 Nov 2020 1013.35 1009.90 3.62 2.29 7.74
9 Nov 2020 1012.67 1009.40 2.48 2.57 7.60
8 Nov 2020 1014.23 1009.25 13.36 2.96 7.67
7 Nov 2020 1014.72 1010.80 6.61 3.17 7.67
6 Nov 2020 1013.29 1011.15 -4.71 3.41 7.70
5 Nov 2020 1013.57 1011.60 -5.79 4.04 7.84
4 Nov 2020 1015.26 1011.85 3.37 4.66 8.16
3 Nov 2020 1016.75 1011.55 14.76 4.88 8.41
2 Nov 2020 1017.05 1010.50 23.35 4.62 8.39
1 Nov 2020 1016.75 1009.35 28.76 4.19 8.16Fairly big SOI drop relative to the base Nina state. Fall of over 30+ points since the start of the month, so after the Thanksgiving holiday the pattern will be more Nino-esque with the subtropical jet. We just got to find cold air somewhere.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:21 pm
by aggiecutter
Late Fall-Early Winter Severe Weather Season.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:32 pm
by bubba hotep
Ntxw wrote:Code: Select all
Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
22 Nov 2020 1010.60 1008.90 -7.51 6.66 7.94
21 Nov 2020 1011.63 1008.30 2.86 7.21 8.15
20 Nov 2020 1013.38 1007.85 16.86 7.44 8.23
19 Nov 2020 1014.15 1008.10 20.17 6.99 8.14
18 Nov 2020 1014.69 1008.65 20.10 6.27 8.18
17 Nov 2020 1014.71 1009.05 17.69 5.38 8.25
16 Nov 2020 1014.73 1010.05 11.45 4.53 8.37
15 Nov 2020 1014.74 1010.30 9.92 3.83 8.36
14 Nov 2020 1014.21 1008.55 17.69 3.29 8.21
13 Nov 2020 1014.20 1009.55 11.26 2.46 8.00
12 Nov 2020 1014.64 1010.70 6.74 2.01 7.93
11 Nov 2020 1014.73 1010.85 6.36 2.13 7.88
10 Nov 2020 1013.35 1009.90 3.62 2.29 7.74
9 Nov 2020 1012.67 1009.40 2.48 2.57 7.60
8 Nov 2020 1014.23 1009.25 13.36 2.96 7.67
7 Nov 2020 1014.72 1010.80 6.61 3.17 7.67
6 Nov 2020 1013.29 1011.15 -4.71 3.41 7.70
5 Nov 2020 1013.57 1011.60 -5.79 4.04 7.84
4 Nov 2020 1015.26 1011.85 3.37 4.66 8.16
3 Nov 2020 1016.75 1011.55 14.76 4.88 8.41
2 Nov 2020 1017.05 1010.50 23.35 4.62 8.39
1 Nov 2020 1016.75 1009.35 28.76 4.19 8.16Fairly big SOI drop relative to the base Nina state. Fall of over 30+ points since the start of the month, so after the Thanksgiving holiday the pattern will be more Nino-esque with the subtropical jet. We just got to find cold air somewhere.
Should keep temps pretty seasonal for Texas with numerous chances of rain.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:35 pm
by Brent
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:Code: Select all
Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
22 Nov 2020 1010.60 1008.90 -7.51 6.66 7.94
21 Nov 2020 1011.63 1008.30 2.86 7.21 8.15
20 Nov 2020 1013.38 1007.85 16.86 7.44 8.23
19 Nov 2020 1014.15 1008.10 20.17 6.99 8.14
18 Nov 2020 1014.69 1008.65 20.10 6.27 8.18
17 Nov 2020 1014.71 1009.05 17.69 5.38 8.25
16 Nov 2020 1014.73 1010.05 11.45 4.53 8.37
15 Nov 2020 1014.74 1010.30 9.92 3.83 8.36
14 Nov 2020 1014.21 1008.55 17.69 3.29 8.21
13 Nov 2020 1014.20 1009.55 11.26 2.46 8.00
12 Nov 2020 1014.64 1010.70 6.74 2.01 7.93
11 Nov 2020 1014.73 1010.85 6.36 2.13 7.88
10 Nov 2020 1013.35 1009.90 3.62 2.29 7.74
9 Nov 2020 1012.67 1009.40 2.48 2.57 7.60
8 Nov 2020 1014.23 1009.25 13.36 2.96 7.67
7 Nov 2020 1014.72 1010.80 6.61 3.17 7.67
6 Nov 2020 1013.29 1011.15 -4.71 3.41 7.70
5 Nov 2020 1013.57 1011.60 -5.79 4.04 7.84
4 Nov 2020 1015.26 1011.85 3.37 4.66 8.16
3 Nov 2020 1016.75 1011.55 14.76 4.88 8.41
2 Nov 2020 1017.05 1010.50 23.35 4.62 8.39
1 Nov 2020 1016.75 1009.35 28.76 4.19 8.16Fairly big SOI drop relative to the base Nina state. Fall of over 30+ points since the start of the month, so after the Thanksgiving holiday the pattern will be more Nino-esque with the subtropical jet. We just got to find cold air somewhere.
Should keep temps pretty seasonal for Texas with numerous chances of rain.
https://i.ibb.co/NT1yHfQ/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-fh168-384.gif
yeah not seeing much cold air but we need some good rains today was a failure
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:44 pm
by CaptinCrunch
The NWS FTW stated that precip was in the forecast, they just couldn't nail down the date, time, location, amount or type, but was confindent in their forecast.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:04 pm
by cheezyWXguy
Latest FWD AFD notes the potential for strong storms on Friday. GFS shows up to 1200j/kg of elevated instability over the metro, but surface temps in only the mid 60s will likely temper that threat
Edit: was looking at an old run, and instability looks a little lower and further east. Who knows
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:23 pm
by Brent
Interesting Euro run
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:33 pm
by cheezyWXguy
cheezyWXguy wrote:Latest FWD AFD notes the potential for strong storms on Friday. GFS shows up to 1200j/kg of elevated instability over the metro, but surface temps in only the mid 60s will likely temper that threat
Edit: was looking at an old run, and instability looks a little lower and further east. Who knows
Wednesday might not be a complete dud either. Some meager sbcape, a bit more elevated cape, and pretty strong low level srh according to 3k nam. I think the main question is whether forcing will be enough to break the weak cap.
Re: Texas Fall 2020
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:34 pm
by bubba hotep
Too bad this pattern isn't rocking in January. Constant stream of systems being forced under the block but there really isn't any cold air them to pull down.
