Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#81 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:12 am

2 Slight Risk days in Florida Today & Tomorrow

Tornadoes
70 mph winds
Ping Pong Ball Sized hail
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#82 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:10 pm

The storms throughout the day today in Florida, while mostly remaining below severe levels, have caused a weather delay for the Daytona 500. Pity, that.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#83 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:36 am

More Severe Storms are expected along the Gulf Coast through Thursday . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#84 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:02 pm

Upgraded to enhanced
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#85 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:38 pm

Tornado Watch #7 for Panhandle Florida, SW Georgia & SE Alabama

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#86 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:50 pm

Mesoscale Discussion #90

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#87 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:10 pm

Tornado Watch #8 for Southern Georgia & Northern Florida

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#88 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:09 pm

It appears Damascus, GA has taken a hit by a strong/violent tornado. Very strong velocity signature and debris ball. Debris lofted to about 15K feet. Luckily it appears that it was pretty short lived.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#89 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:30 pm

Confirmed Tornado near Damascus, GA

1 Injury reported . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#90 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:19 am

Unfortunately it looks like we had another big one today.
https://twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1361544008019943431
This happened in the marginal risk area by the way...

UPDATE: Reports of 2 confirmed fatalities from this storm. Praying for everyone involved. Certainly sounding like a high end event...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#91 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:55 am

Looking at images I would rate an Ef3. Houses totaled but debris remained on site. I wish that the people trapped make it out healthy.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#92 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:24 am

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#93 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:43 am

Unlikely in my opinion. An Ef4 would have more or less cleaned a foundation of everything. While a brick house getting demolished says something, it was only 1500 square feet. I am pretty skeptic of high ratings however and may be biased towards a weaker rating.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#94 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:04 am

Marginal risk across Southern Florida today

    Maybe a Tornado
    60 mph wind gusts
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#95 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:11 am

Slight Risk across Coastal Lousisana, Mississippi, Alabama, & Panhandle Florida Tomorrow

  • 75 mph winds
  • Higher threat of Tornadoes
  • Up to Half Dollar Sized Hail

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#96 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:06 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Unlikely in my opinion. An Ef4 would have more or less cleaned a foundation of everything. While a brick house getting demolished says something, it was only 1500 square feet. I am pretty skeptic of high ratings however and may be biased towards a weaker rating.

 https://twitter.com/Oakhurst_WX/status/1361691777548312579



 https://twitter.com/tylburch/status/1361666495709872130



 https://twitter.com/AndyRoszak/status/1361706937168105472



 https://twitter.com/MkwNiko/status/1361718716703064064


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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#97 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:08 pm

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#98 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:12 pm

In my unprofessional opinion, based on the damage I've seen, this will likely be rated a high end EF3 at the minimum. Would not be surprised at all if it gets EF4.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#99 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:15 pm

Weather Dude wrote:In my unprofessional opinion, based on the damage I've seen, this will likely be rated a high end EF3 at the minimum. Would not be surprised at all if it gets EF4.

Based on contextual ground scouring, anchoring, debris pile, etc., it’s definitely low-end EF4. The large home was evidently anchored, though the debris did not scatter far. Similar damage was observed during the Estill–Nixville–Fechtig, SC, EF4 tornado on 13 April 2020, which was posthumously upgraded to low-end EF4 status. Damage in Damascus, GA, also looks to be in the low-to-mid EF3 range:
 https://twitter.com/WX_ManMike/status/1361684322558820358


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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#100 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:26 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:In my unprofessional opinion, based on the damage I've seen, this will likely be rated a high end EF3 at the minimum. Would not be surprised at all if it gets EF4.

Based on contextual ground scouring, anchoring, debris pile, etc., it’s definitely low-end EF4. The large home was evidently anchored, though the debris did not scatter far. Similar damage was observed during the Estill–Nixville–Fechtig, SC, EF4 tornado on 13 April 2020, which was posthumously upgraded to low-end EF4 status. Damage in Damascus, GA, also looks to be in the low-to-mid EF3 range:
https://twitter.com/WX_ManMike/status/1361684322558820358

Keep in mind that the copious amounts of rainfall that area has received has made the soil much less stable and easier to be manipulated by high winds compared to the much drier plains. In other words, it was easier for the tornado to damage the ground than usual. I expect a rating no greater than a minimal Ef4 (Minimal to devastating tornadoes Ef4-Ef5).

Also I would rate the Damascus twister a mid Ef2
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