STORM2K

Storm season is coming, it's time to get ready on what nature throws at us.


States that will be covered: Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, & Missouri (In Tornado Alley)
Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida, North & South Carolina (Dixie Alley)
Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia & Virginia (Elsewhere)

Posts here will be for mainly Severe Weather.

Storm Season is usually from March to July unless there is a risk of Severe weather offseason.

EDIT: Forgot to say that soundings can be posted here to show the conditions for severe weather

EDIT 2: Any 'Enhanced" risk of severe weather outside of the coverage zone will be mentioned because of how dangerous it can be.

Severe Weather already possible Next Sunday (1.24.2021) in Central Texas towards the north & Southern Oklahoma



Texas Cities in the risk zone: Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Irving, Denton, Waco, Killeen, Abiline, Sherman, Paris, Longview, Tyler, Temple, Gainesville, San Angelo, & Brownwood

Oklahoma Cities in the risk zone: Durant, Idabel, Hugo, Marietta, Coalgate, Tishomingo, Madill, Atoka, Sulphur, & Ardmore

Can't wait for spring when we finally get out of the "winter slump" of boring weather.
That being said I do think Sunday and Monday has a chance to be the first organized severe event of the year. Not expecting anything big by any means but it will be nice to have storms to track for once. SPC currently not impressed at all with Monday in Dixie Alley but models are showing the potential for some moisture return and decent dew points so I guess anything is possible.

Severe weather will most likely be suppressed this year due to abnormally dry conditions and a generally suppressed atmosphere with large scale storms tracking farther north and failing to pull in the necessary gulf warmth and moisture but this is just an opinion.

Ummmmmm, they said that Yesterday, there will be severe weather Sunday in Northern Texas & Southern Oklahoma

GFS Sounding at +66 hours South of Dallas, TX




The Conditions are good for tornadoes (Up to EF3 strength), but capped?

I´m speaking in general, not related to the short term events. I apologize for not clarifying.

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I´m speaking in general, not related to the short term events. I apologize for not clarifying.

Your fine! I was updating for potental severe weather threat for Sunday (Why is the SPC not having any severe weather chances? Maybe moved to Monday?)

I was in the process of looking up the CPC 3-month forecast when I saw this:
Temperature

Above Normal for sure
Precipitation

Slightly drier than normal

+60 hours GFS Sounding over Dallas, TX



It's looking more like May down there than January! There is a chance for EF4 tornadoes, I really hope that chance is a bust

EDIT: it's contaminated, meaning that the true threat is MUCH lower.

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Severe weather will most likely be suppressed this year due to abnormally dry conditions and a generally suppressed atmosphere with large scale storms tracking farther north and failing to pull in the necessary gulf warmth and moisture but this is just an opinion.

I agree, especially the Plains. I think May will be more active than 2018 or 2020 (which all we need is literally one event for that to happen lol) but I think 2021 will continue the overall trend of less active plains severe weather we have seen the last several years, excluding 2019.

Iceresistance wrote:+60 hours GFS Sounding over Dallas, TX

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-01-22-at-10.19.42-AM.png

It's looking more like May down there than January! There is a chance for EF4 tornadoes, I really hope that chance is a bust

EDIT: it's contaminated, meaning that the true threat is MUCH lower.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh60-601e190c858580a61b.gif

Yeah I would keep from saying that there is a chance of violent tors from one sounding (it isn't even a PDS sounding lol), especially when there isn't even a marginal risk lol

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Severe weather will most likely be suppressed this year due to abnormally dry conditions and a generally suppressed atmosphere with large scale storms tracking farther north and failing to pull in the necessary gulf warmth and moisture but this is just an opinion.

I'd agree with you for the Plain states, but the drought in the Southwest may give a boost to Dixie Alleys tornado season due to EMLs pushing further east. Although the current drought doesn't expand near as far east as the one in 2011 did, but we could see a similar effect.

Edit: You also have to think about the worst of the severe weather outbreaks coming from negatively tilted troughs as well, so in that case it's actually pulling moisture from the southeast where it's not as dry. At this point if the trough is going negative over the Western Southern Plains, then that dry air can actually be beneficial to a severe weather outbreak over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri in that case.

Also the word you're looking for is amped, as a suppressed atmosphere is one where storms are able to gain latitude or do so quickly. An amped pattern is more common during a La Nina as well.

TheProfessor wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Severe weather will most likely be suppressed this year due to abnormally dry conditions and a generally suppressed atmosphere with large scale storms tracking farther north and failing to pull in the necessary gulf warmth and moisture but this is just an opinion.

I'd agree with you for the Plain states, but the drought in the Southwest may give a boost to Dixie Alleys tornado season due to EMLs pushing further east. Although the current drought doesn't expand near as far east as the one in 2011 did, but we could see a similar effect.

Edit: You also have to think about the worst of the severe weather outbreaks coming from negatively tilted troughs as well, so in that case it's actually pulling moisture from the southeast where it's not as dry. At this point if the trough is going negative over the Western Southern Plains, then that dry air can actually be beneficial to a severe weather outbreak over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri in that case.

Also the word you're looking for is amped, as a suppressed atmosphere is one where storms are able to gain latitude or do so quickly. An amped pattern is more common during a La Nina as well.

I remember in 2013, the year was neutral, and 3 small but very nasty tornado outbreaks in Central Oklahoma in May.

(May 19th, Carney EF3 & Bethel Acres-Shawnee EF4)
(May 20th, Moore EF5)
May 31st, El Reno EF5 [EF3])

Yes perhaps it will shape up like 2020 did with the tornadoes occurring in the east but with lower activity nonetheless

Back to slight risk for Sunday. Looks like the main threat with this setup is hail, at least for Sunday.

Weather Dude wrote:Back to slight risk for Sunday. Looks like the main threat with this setup is hail, at least for Sunday.

Now they are saying Golfball Sized Hail, 65 Mph gusts & Maybe a Tornado in the Slight risk zone

I’m in the Marginal Risk for Quarter Sized Hail.

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:Back to slight risk for Sunday. Looks like the main threat with this setup is hail, at least for Sunday.

Now they are saying Golfball Sized Hail, 65 Mph gusts & Maybe a Tornado in the Slight risk zone

I’m in the Marginal Risk for Quarter Sized Hail.

Marginal risk is less than half a county away from me. Feels so close yet so far away...

I’m now under a slight risk for Golf Ball Sized hail & 65 Mph Gusts.

Mesoscale Discussion #26 from the SPC

40% chance for Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Powerful Storm crossing the Red River into Oklahoma, racing at 70 mph towards the Northeast.

70 mph wind gusts & Up to Half Dollar Sized Hail (Quarter Sized hail reported in Iowa City, TX) is possible with this storm heading my way

12:50 AM


At 1 AM