STORM2K

Severe weather now expected on the last day of 2021 (12/31/2021) from Texarkana, TX through Little Rock to Jackson, TN.


2021 will end with a bang, literally . . .

Today's event is now underway with a 10 hatched enhanced risk and a tor watch with 70/50 probs now up. No active warnings at the moment.

This was a major underperformance. Glad to see that after the events earlier this month. Unfortunately it looks like Saturday could be a bigger deal.

And right as I say that there's a strong tornado on the ground in central AL.

Most of the focus is going to be on Saturday, but Friday may be somewhat of a sneaky setup to end the year. Slight risk up for Day 2 with a 5% tor risk.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Quite a large enhanced risk area with 10% hatched tornado probs. Could be a big day tomorrow.

(Long post warning)

Well 2021 is officially in the books and it was quite the impactful year for severe weather, but not so much locally. I've been making my own little "database" over the last couple years (started in during Covid shutdown) and I've been keeping track of local severe weather based on a point system. Basically I assign point values based on SPC outlook risk level for that day, with Marginal being 1 point and High being 5 points (I realize this may not be the best scale and I may go back and change that but it's like this for now)

Note: This is for my "home" location of Tulsa (technically about 20 miles north of Tulsa but that's what I use for my point values). I've thought about doing some of these for other locations and maybe even a national one but they take a while and I haven't had the will to do that yet, but I may get those going eventually sometime in the future.

I have decided to post some of those values here to show how 2021 compares to recent years. Keep in mind that all listed averages are from 2010 to present.

Average total number of points per year: 73
Total points in 2021: 67

Based on points, 2021 was a a below average year, but not terrible. It was nowhere near the top 3 of 2013, 2011, and 2019 (85, 84 and 83 points respectively) but it also wasn't anywhere near as bad as 2018 (51 points) The closest years to 2021 since 2010 are 2014 and 2016 (66 points) which are the next lowest after 2018.

Now this is where the part that I mentioned earlier that this isn't really the best scale comes into play. The marginal risks, worth 1 point each, can really "carry" a year to make it look a little better that it really was and that was never more true for any year than it was in 2021. Let's see why as we break this up into individual risk days.

Average number of Marginal risk days or higher: 44
Number of marginal or higher days in 2021: 49
Highest: 50 (2019)
Lowest: 32 (2018)

Now looking at this stat, it appears that 2021 was a decently active year, with the second highest number of total events since 2010. However, it was actually the complete opposite. Let's move on to the slight risks:

Average number of slight risk or higher days: 22
Number of slight risk of higher days in 2021: 12
Highest: 31 (2011)
Lowest: 12 (2021)
Second Lowest: 16 (2014 and 2018)

Twelve. Days. 12. That's the lowest since at least 2010 and maybe ever. Now this really shows how inactive this year was. I mean this is 4 less than 2018 which is considered the benchmark of inactivity for this area in recent years (at least by me anyway) Now let's take a look at the enhanced risks.

Average number of enhanced risk or higher days: 6
Number of enhanced risk or higher days in 2021: 5
Highest: 10 (2017)
Lowest: 2 (2016)

Although there were only 12 slight risk or higher days, 5 of those were at least enhanced risks, and all but one of those produced a solid event for the area. This was a solid showing for 2021 despite the overall lack of events. Now let's look at the moderate risks:

Average number of moderate risk or higher days: 2
Number of moderate risk or higher days in 2021: 1
Highest: 5 (2011 and 2013)
Lowest: 0 (2016 and 2018)

Getting 1 moderate risk a year is solid. But the twist this time is that it came in October which is pretty much unheard of, despite getting a solid Oct event every once in a while. Now for the high risks which is perhaps the craziest stat of them all.

Average number of high risk days: 1 every 4 years
Number of high risk days in 2021: 0
Highest: 1 (2010, 2011, 2012)
Lowest: 0 (All other years since)

Not having a single high risk since 2012 in NE Oklahoma is unreal. We came close in 2013 and 2019 but other than that there hasn't really been anything even close to high risk level.

In terms of overall impacts despite having a low number of events, 2021 was actually pretty impactful and several of these events packed a punch, so despite having a record low slight risk days, I would put 2021 above 2014, 2016, and 2018, which actually matches up pretty well with the point totals. I keep monthly point totals as well and some of those numbers were very interesting this year as well but I won't get into that here.

Now we move on to 2022, will we get our first above average year since 2019, or will it be another below average year, only time will tell.

(Sorry for the long post, hopefully I didn't waste any of y'alls time )

Weather Dude wrote:(Long post warning)

Well 2021 is officially in the books and it was quite the impactful year for severe weather, but not so much locally. I've been making my own little "database" over the last couple years (started in during Covid shutdown) and I've been keeping track of local severe weather based on a point system. Basically I assign point values based on SPC outlook risk level for that day, with Marginal being 1 point and High being 5 points (I realize this may not be the best scale and I may go back and change that but it's like this for now)

Note: This is for my "home" location of Tulsa (technically about 20 miles north of Tulsa but that's what I use for my point values). I've thought about doing some of these for other locations and maybe even a national one but they take a while and I haven't had the will to do that yet, but I may get those going eventually sometime in the future.

I have decided to post some of those values here to show how 2021 compares to recent years. Keep in mind that all listed averages are from 2010 to present.

Average total number of points per year: 73
Total points in 2021: 67

Based on points, 2021 was a a below average year, but not terrible. It was nowhere near the top 3 of 2013, 2011, and 2019 (85, 84 and 83 points respectively) but it also wasn't anywhere near as bad as 2018 (51 points) The closest years to 2021 since 2010 are 2014 and 2016 (66 points) which are the next lowest after 2018.

Now this is where the part that I mentioned earlier that this isn't really the best scale comes into play. The marginal risks, worth 1 point each, can really "carry" a year to make it look a little better that it really was and that was never more true for any year than it was in 2021. Let's see why as we break this up into individual risk days.

Average number of Marginal risk days or higher: 44
Number of marginal or higher days in 2021: 49
Highest: 50 (2019)
Lowest: 32 (2018)

Now looking at this stat, it appears that 2021 was a decently active year, with the second highest number of total events since 2010. However, it was actually the complete opposite. Let's move on to the slight risks:

Average number of slight risk or higher days: 22
Number of slight risk of higher days in 2021: 12
Highest: 31 (2011)
Lowest: 12 (2021)
Second Lowest: 16 (2014 and 2018)

Twelve. Days. 12. That's the lowest since at least 2010 and maybe ever. Now this really shows how inactive this year was. I mean this is 4 less than 2018 which is considered the benchmark of inactivity for this area in recent years (at least by me anyway) Now let's take a look at the enhanced risks.

Average number of enhanced risk or higher days: 6
Number of enhanced risk or higher days in 2021: 5
Highest: 10 (2017)
Lowest: 2 (2016)

Although there were only 12 slight risk or higher days, 5 of those were at least enhanced risks, and all but one of those produced a solid event for the area. This was a solid showing for 2021 despite the overall lack of events. Now let's look at the moderate risks:

Average number of moderate risk or higher days: 2
Number of moderate risk or higher days in 2021: 1
Highest: 5 (2011 and 2013)
Lowest: 0 (2016 and 2018)

Getting 1 moderate risk a year is solid. But the twist this time is that it came in October which is pretty much unheard of, despite getting a solid Oct event every once in a while. Now for the high risks which is perhaps the craziest stat of them all.

Average number of high risk days: 1 every 4 years
Number of high risk days in 2021: 0
Highest: 1 (2010, 2011, 2012)
Lowest: 0 (All other years since)

Not having a single high risk since 2012 in NE Oklahoma is unreal. We came close in 2013 and 2019 but other than that there hasn't really been anything even close to high risk level.

In terms of overall impacts despite having a low number of events, 2021 was actually pretty impactful and several of these events packed a punch, so despite having a record low slight risk days, I would put 2021 above 2014, 2016, and 2018, which actually matches up pretty well with the point totals. I keep monthly point totals as well and some of those numbers were very interesting this year as well but I won't get into that here.

Now we move on to 2022, will we get our first above average year since 2019, or will it be another below average year, only time will tell.

(Sorry for the long post, hopefully I didn't waste any of y'alls time )

What about one for Central Oklahoma?

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:(Long post warning)

Well 2021 is officially in the books and it was quite the impactful year for severe weather, but not so much locally. I've been making my own little "database" over the last couple years (started in during Covid shutdown) and I've been keeping track of local severe weather based on a point system. Basically I assign point values based on SPC outlook risk level for that day, with Marginal being 1 point and High being 5 points (I realize this may not be the best scale and I may go back and change that but it's like this for now)

Note: This is for my "home" location of Tulsa (technically about 20 miles north of Tulsa but that's what I use for my point values). I've thought about doing some of these for other locations and maybe even a national one but they take a while and I haven't had the will to do that yet, but I may get those going eventually sometime in the future.

I have decided to post some of those values here to show how 2021 compares to recent years. Keep in mind that all listed averages are from 2010 to present.

Average total number of points per year: 73
Total points in 2021: 67

Based on points, 2021 was a a below average year, but not terrible. It was nowhere near the top 3 of 2013, 2011, and 2019 (85, 84 and 83 points respectively) but it also wasn't anywhere near as bad as 2018 (51 points) The closest years to 2021 since 2010 are 2014 and 2016 (66 points) which are the next lowest after 2018.

Now this is where the part that I mentioned earlier that this isn't really the best scale comes into play. The marginal risks, worth 1 point each, can really "carry" a year to make it look a little better that it really was and that was never more true for any year than it was in 2021. Let's see why as we break this up into individual risk days.

Average number of Marginal risk days or higher: 44
Number of marginal or higher days in 2021: 49
Highest: 50 (2019)
Lowest: 32 (2018)

Now looking at this stat, it appears that 2021 was a decently active year, with the second highest number of total events since 2010. However, it was actually the complete opposite. Let's move on to the slight risks:

Average number of slight risk or higher days: 22
Number of slight risk of higher days in 2021: 12
Highest: 31 (2011)
Lowest: 12 (2021)
Second Lowest: 16 (2014 and 2018)

Twelve. Days. 12. That's the lowest since at least 2010 and maybe ever. Now this really shows how inactive this year was. I mean this is 4 less than 2018 which is considered the benchmark of inactivity for this area in recent years (at least by me anyway) Now let's take a look at the enhanced risks.

Average number of enhanced risk or higher days: 6
Number of enhanced risk or higher days in 2021: 5
Highest: 10 (2017)
Lowest: 2 (2016)

Although there were only 12 slight risk or higher days, 5 of those were at least enhanced risks, and all but one of those produced a solid event for the area. This was a solid showing for 2021 despite the overall lack of events. Now let's look at the moderate risks:

Average number of moderate risk or higher days: 2
Number of moderate risk or higher days in 2021: 1
Highest: 5 (2011 and 2013)
Lowest: 0 (2016 and 2018)

Getting 1 moderate risk a year is solid. But the twist this time is that it came in October which is pretty much unheard of, despite getting a solid Oct event every once in a while. Now for the high risks which is perhaps the craziest stat of them all.

Average number of high risk days: 1 every 4 years
Number of high risk days in 2021: 0
Highest: 1 (2010, 2011, 2012)
Lowest: 0 (All other years since)

Not having a single high risk since 2012 in NE Oklahoma is unreal. We came close in 2013 and 2019 but other than that there hasn't really been anything even close to high risk level.

In terms of overall impacts despite having a low number of events, 2021 was actually pretty impactful and several of these events packed a punch, so despite having a record low slight risk days, I would put 2021 above 2014, 2016, and 2018, which actually matches up pretty well with the point totals. I keep monthly point totals as well and some of those numbers were very interesting this year as well but I won't get into that here.

Now we move on to 2022, will we get our first above average year since 2019, or will it be another below average year, only time will tell.

(Sorry for the long post, hopefully I didn't waste any of y'alls time )

What about one for Central Oklahoma?

Sorry just now getting to this as apparently I can't get on here from my phone because of some security thing for now.

Anyway I have not done one for C OK yet but I certainly might in the future since I'm spending a decent chunk of the year there now and will for at least a few more years. It probably wouldn't be much different than this one besides a few small differences here and there.