Texas Spring 2021

[bubba hotep]

Models are really struggling with precipitation placement and are all over the place. Last night's FWD sounding showed very dry mid level air, so it's not surprising that the heavy rain forecast was a bust for DFW. The atmosphere has modified some overnight but the 12z still shows some dry lower levels and a PW of only 1.14 in, not really screaming "washout!"

[WacoWx]

Is there any chance the atmosphere over DFW can recuperate after this first round in order for us to see a 4" heavy rain event this afternoon/tonight? I feel like it never really recovered after Sunday afternoon even though the totals are going to be close to what they expected. I thought tonight was supposed to be the main event?

[Iceresistance]

Mini High Pressure smack-dab over DFW . . .

[bubba hotep]

Is there any chance the atmosphere over DFW can recuperate after this first round in order for us to see a 4" heavy rain event this afternoon/tonight? I feel like it never really recovered after Sunday afternoon even though the totals are going to be close to what they expected. I thought tonight was supposed to be the main event?

Have to wait and see what FWD does with the afternoon update but the 12z hi-res guidance doesn't really support the additional 3-6" for DFW. With that said, the ULL is still back over New Mexico and the air mass south of DFW is pretty juiced up. The problem is that most guidance shows a MCS forming and moving through SE TX and that typically chokes off moisture flow into N. Texas.

[starsfan65]

Is there any chance the atmosphere over DFW can recuperate after this first round in order for us to see a 4" heavy rain event this afternoon/tonight? I feel like it never really recovered after Sunday afternoon even though the totals are going to be close to what they expected. I thought tonight was supposed to be the main event?

Have to wait and see what FWD does with the afternoon update but the 12z hi-res guidance doesn't really support the additional 3-6" for DFW. With that said, the ULL is still back over New Mexico and the air mass south of DFW is pretty juiced up. The problem is that most guidance shows a MCS forming and moving through SE TX and that typically chokes off moisture flow into N. Texas.

Ya'll don't think we are going to get much rain here?

[rwfromkansas]

I'm at 2.25 for this rain event. Not bad, but it will have to rain a LOT tonight to get to even 4 inches.

Some folks near the coast will end up over a foot, but it seems like the maximums in these events often move around from where they were expected.

[kassi]

I'm at 2.25 for this rain event. Not bad, but it will have to rain a LOT tonight to get to even 4 inches.

Some folks near the coast will end up over a foot, but it seems like the maximums in these events often move around from where they were expected.

Some areas in the Beaumont got over a foot and a half, just with yesterday's rain. Some homes have flooded for the 3rd time since Harvey. It's really sad.

[bubba hotep]

Is there any chance the atmosphere over DFW can recuperate after this first round in order for us to see a 4" heavy rain event this afternoon/tonight? I feel like it never really recovered after Sunday afternoon even though the totals are going to be close to what they expected. I thought tonight was supposed to be the main event?

Have to wait and see what FWD does with the afternoon update but the 12z hi-res guidance doesn't really support the additional 3-6" for DFW. With that said, the ULL is still back over New Mexico and the air mass south of DFW is pretty juiced up. The problem is that most guidance shows a MCS forming and moving through SE TX and that typically chokes off moisture flow into N. Texas.

Ya'll don't think we are going to get much rain here?

For the most part. FWD cut expected totals from widespread 4-6" back to 1-3" and even that might be a stretch. I think they mostly left the Flash Flood watch up for show even though they mention "saturated soils" which is true but don't think we see enough rain to trigger any additional flash flooding in DFW. In the end this is a good thing but outside of that one isolated cell that dumped 5"+ right over Richardson, the event has mostly fallen flat, esp considering widespread 6-8" from multiple strong MCS was the original forecast for N. Texas.

[Cpv17]

Have to wait and see what FWD does with the afternoon update but the 12z hi-res guidance doesn't really support the additional 3-6" for DFW. With that said, the ULL is still back over New Mexico and the air mass south of DFW is pretty juiced up. The problem is that most guidance shows a MCS forming and moving through SE TX and that typically chokes off moisture flow into N. Texas.

Ya'll don't think we are going to get much rain here?

For the most part. FWD cut expected totals from widespread 4-6" back to 1-3" and even that might be a stretch. I think they mostly left the Flash Flood watch up for show even though they mention "saturated soils" which is true but don't think we see enough rain to trigger any additional flash flooding in DFW. In the end this is a good thing but outside of that one isolated cell that dumped 5"+ right over Richardson, the event has mostly fallen flat, esp considering widespread 6-8" from multiple strong MCS was the original forecast for N. Texas.

You guys in NTX got screwed.

[bubba hotep]

Ya'll don't think we are going to get much rain here?

For the most part. FWD cut expected totals from widespread 4-6" back to 1-3" and even that might be a stretch. I think they mostly left the Flash Flood watch up for show even though they mention "saturated soils" which is true but don't think we see enough rain to trigger any additional flash flooding in DFW. In the end this is a good thing but outside of that one isolated cell that dumped 5"+ right over Richardson, the event has mostly fallen flat, esp considering widespread 6-8" from multiple strong MCS was the original forecast for N. Texas.

You guys in NTX got screwed.

N. Texas as a whole has had a pretty wet Spring, so we didn't need a lot of extra rain. It's just interesting to see such a big forecast bust. Orgianlly, today was a D3 Mod Risk for excessive rain

[Cpv17]

For the most part. FWD cut expected totals from widespread 4-6" back to 1-3" and even that might be a stretch. I think they mostly left the Flash Flood watch up for show even though they mention "saturated soils" which is true but don't think we see enough rain to trigger any additional flash flooding in DFW. In the end this is a good thing but outside of that one isolated cell that dumped 5"+ right over Richardson, the event has mostly fallen flat, esp considering widespread 6-8" from multiple strong MCS was the original forecast for N. Texas.

You guys in NTX got screwed.

N. Texas as a whole has had a pretty wet Spring, so we didn't need a lot of extra rain. It's just interesting to see such a big forecast bust. Orgianlly, today was a D3 Mod Risk for excessive rain

Yeah, that’s true. Just crazy to see how aggressive the forecast was and hardly anything came out of it. Definitely a bust. I think it’s going to be a big show down here though. I think we’re going to rob y’all of a big event.

[jasons2k]

Looks primed to dump across SE Texas tonight. Stay weather aware!

[jasons2k]

***Dangerous flash flood event likely tonight-Wednesday night over SE TX.***

Short range models have become increasingly consistent today in suggesting the development of a corridor of slow moving excessive rainfall this evening into early Wednesday from roughly Conroe to Hempstead to Columbus that slowly moves east and south with time. Given the potential for an east-west or NE to SW line of training thunderstorms with strong low level inflow off the Gulf of Mexico is historically a dangerous flash flood setup for this area.

Where exactly the line anchors or trains for any extended period of time is questionable, but given moisture profiles, significant short duration rainfall totals of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible leading to rapid onset flash flooding.

There has been little change in the overall forecasted rainfall amounts today and would not be surprised if someone in SE TX sees 10-15 inches over the next 36 hours.

Expected rainfall rates and totals will likely push some creeks and bayous toward their banks and in some cases overbanks resulting in more significant widespread flooding. While this threat appears greatest north of I-10…the entire county and area is at risk.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks primed to dump across SE Texas tonight. Stay weather aware!

Strange that just a few days ago I would be happy about hearing this news, but now I am concerned about flooding. That's Southeast Texas weather right there. With some areas already receiving over 15 inches of rain, I would not be surprised to see someone get a total of 20-25 inches out of this whole week.

[bubba hotep]

21z HRRR blanks DFW but FWD still has 90% Heavy Rain up in the forecast

Current obs are very high cloud bases with some virga, indicative of dry air still hanging around.

Also, shows areas of 6-7" of rain for SE & Coastal Texas.

[Haris]

Similar story here Bubba in Austin. Forecasts of 8-10" from NWS and many models but looks like the area got 1-3 (past 4 days) which is okay but wayyyy less than forecasted...... So frustrating.

[Bhow]

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/fc/12/BF79F22F-4E48-4CF2-851D-D70DD79181FC/IMG_9505.HEIC

Caught this picture as this storm was moving into Kyle. Funnel cloud or no?

[bubba hotep]

21z HRRR blanks DFW but FWD still has 90% Heavy Rain up in the forecast

Current obs are very high cloud bases with some virga, indicative of dry air still hanging around.

Also, shows areas of 6-7" of rain for SE & Coastal Texas.

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021051821/018/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

As expected, FWD folds and goes from 100% chance of heavy rain tonight at 3:30 pm for DFW to 90% and then to 20-40%

Looks like most of DFW will close this 24hr cycle with 0.25 - 0.75" after a D3 Mod for Excessive rain that held through D2 and into today (D1).

[sphelps8681]

What is Lumberton, Tx looking like for total precip. We are north of Beaumont.

[Brent]

Hardly any rain up here at all what a bust that's all I've heard for a week how much it was going to rain