Texas Spring 2021

[bubba hotep]

What is Lumberton, Tx looking like for total precip. We are north of Beaumont.

Hard to say, so check the local forecast from NWS. Based on SPC Mesoanalysis, it appears that area of SE Texas into SW Louisiana didn't really recover much from the morning storms, so that might limit rainfall potential tonight. However, it's just so hard to say with the proximity to the Gulf moisture.

[Iceresistance]

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/fc/12/BF79F22F-4E48-4CF2-851D-D70DD79181FC/IMG_9505.HEIC

Caught this picture as this storm was moving into Kyle. Funnel cloud or no?

Where's the photo? I don't see it showing up . . .

[bubba hotep]

Latest runs of the HRRR and surface obs are highlighting the area around Victoria for getting hammered tonight. 23z HRRR has a 14" max in that area.

[Cpv17]

Latest runs of the HRRR and surface obs are highlighting the area around Victoria for getting hammered tonight. 23z HRRR has a 14" max in that area.

Looks like my area here in central Wharton County could get some pretty significant totals too.

[Bhow]

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/fc/12/BF79F22F-4E48-4CF2-851D-D70DD79181FC/IMG_9505.HEIC

Caught this picture as this storm was moving into Kyle. Funnel cloud or no?

Where's the photo? I don't see it showing up . . .

Couldn’t figure out how to post it lol

[EnnisTx]

Wow. They're really holding on to that Flash Flood Watch.

[Bhow]

Think I figured that picture puzzle out. Here she is

[Iceresistance]

https://texas.forums.rivals.com/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-hou1-1.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fv%2Ft1.6435-9%2F186528752_4312045485474481_6873581657599542240_n.jpg%3F_nc_cat%3D104%26ccb%3D1-3%26_nc_sid%3Ddbeb18%26_nc_ohc%3DuXGeXWvTrVkAX-dgghh%26_nc_ht%3Dscontent-hou1-1.xx%26oh%3Dc67e5f2341987ab9e1b3ced617adea4e%26oe%3D60CB14B9&hash=478c5591ac9e740ada0bb30b00ed1bff

Think I figured that picture puzzle out. Here she is

WHOA! That thing looked mean!

[dhweather]

https://texas.forums.rivals.com/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-hou1-1.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fv%2Ft1.6435-9%2F186528752_4312045485474481_6873581657599542240_n.jpg%3F_nc_cat%3D104%26ccb%3D1-3%26_nc_sid%3Ddbeb18%26_nc_ohc%3DuXGeXWvTrVkAX-dgghh%26_nc_ht%3Dscontent-hou1-1.xx%26oh%3Dc67e5f2341987ab9e1b3ced617adea4e%26oe%3D60CB14B9&hash=478c5591ac9e740ada0bb30b00ed1bff

Think I figured that picture puzzle out. Here she is

That's probably a scud cloud looking like a funnel.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm in Arizona, but i received 3.08" in last 24 hours. Storm total is 5.15"

My new pallet of grass in my yard will love it!

[Bhow]

https://texas.forums.rivals.com/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-hou1-1.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fv%2Ft1.6435-9%2F186528752_4312045485474481_6873581657599542240_n.jpg%3F_nc_cat%3D104%26ccb%3D1-3%26_nc_sid%3Ddbeb18%26_nc_ohc%3DuXGeXWvTrVkAX-dgghh%26_nc_ht%3Dscontent-hou1-1.xx%26oh%3Dc67e5f2341987ab9e1b3ced617adea4e%26oe%3D60CB14B9&hash=478c5591ac9e740ada0bb30b00ed1bff

Think I figured that picture puzzle out. Here she is

WHOA! That thing looked mean!

She was. Have a bunch of fences and trees down in the area.

[rwfromkansas]

I'm in Arizona, but i received 3.08" in last 24 hours. Storm total is 5.15"

My new pallet of grass in my yard will love it!

Oh geez, I don't know if I could survive moving from Houston to Arizona. Oasis to the desert.

[Cpv17]

For you DFW guys, there’s a good signal for a significant rain event the last few days of this month.

[bubba hotep]

For you DFW guys, there’s a good signal for a significant rain event the last few days of this month.

Yea, the wet pattern isn't going away anytime soon. I think June will at least start out with above avg. precipitation. Then July and August

[Ntxw]

It's been somewhat of a disappointment broadly in the northern half of the state rain total wise. Still did get beneficial rains and the month so far is -2.4F below normal and above normal rainfall at DFW. We're actually getting a SE wind now so perhaps the flow will bring additional rain chances from the south/southeast the next couple of days.

Heat dome looks anchored to our east.

[Cpv17]

It's been somewhat of a disappointment broadly in the northern half of the state rain total wise. Still did get beneficial rains and the month so far is -2.4F below normal and above normal rainfall at DFW. We're actually getting a SE wind now so perhaps the flow will bring additional rain chances from the south/southeast the next couple of days.

Heat dome looks anchored to our east.

I’ve had 18” in the past 3 weeks.

[captainbarbossa19]

For you DFW guys, there’s a good signal for a significant rain event the last few days of this month.

This month is really starting to remind me of May 2016. That year, the Brazos River experienced major flooding in sections. The event that triggered the massive floods was around Memorial Day. Given how saturated the ground already is in much of SE TX, there could be yet another major flooding event around the same time period.

[Cpv17]

For you DFW guys, there’s a good signal for a significant rain event the last few days of this month.

This month is really starting to remind me of May 2016. That year, the Brazos River experienced major flooding in sections. The event that triggered the massive floods was around Memorial Day. Given how saturated the ground already is in much of SE TX, there could be yet another major flooding event around the same time period.

The last part of May is notorious for flooding.

[Haris]

Mabry got roughly 2" as did most of the metro on average (1-3")

Nothing like the 8-10 that was forecasted & modeled and just goes to show how one OFB can ruin the entire forecast. That nasty MCS in STX today would happen over us hadn't yesterdays outflow stalled

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Wet weather pattern will continue into the weekend and early next week.

Slow moving upper level trough over the central plains this morning with a strong upper level ridge of high pressure located over the southeast US. Moisture will return to the area today and increase on Friday and Saturday as the SE US ridge attempts to build west. Moisture channel will extend from the western Caribbean Sea into SW LA and SE TX Friday into Saturday.

Radar is showing no activity this morning for the first time in 4 days as the local air mass has been stabilized by all the recent thunderstorm activity. Expect some heating and modest moisture return today that may yield enough destabilization for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the region, although not expecting much.

As the deep moisture axis over SC and SW LA begins to shift westward on Friday rain chances will increase from the east into the afternoon hours. Some of the storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, but expect the activity to be generally scattered and widespread heavy rainfall is not expected.

Moisture axis continues to shift westward on Saturday with much of the area falling within the axis. Expect again showers and thunderstorms to develop with heating and fairly widespread coverage on Saturday. Heavy rainfall will be possible, but once again widespread heavy rains are not expected.

Ridge of high pressure tries to build into the area from the east late in the weekend, but does not look to gain full control of our local weather and a continued SE flow of moisture will maintain a fairly moist and unstable air mass into early next week. With heating, daily showers and thunderstorms can be expected, but coverage similar to our normal summer pattern.

Hydro:

Watersheds continue to fall this morning, with most near or back within banks. Area rivers will continue to rise into the weekend before cresting and falling. Not expecting additional rainfall over the next few days to create any additional flooding on area watersheds.

Tropics:

Sub-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda over the next 48 hours and will likely become the first named storm of 2021. A reminder that hurricane season starts in just over a week.