STORM2K

Just being honest, I think the clear radar and slightly lower PWATS is lulling some into a false sense that today will be a non-event.
The sun is about to hit in full force today after this mixes out. These are the kinds of days that make me a little nervous, actually.

0.66" Sunday
1.50" Monday
0.53" Tuesday
0.75" Wednesday
1.81" since around midnight until 8 AM this morning on Thursday.

Up to 5.25" of rain this week.

Last week's total was 7.93" with nearly all of it falling within 24 hours on the 11th and 12th.

Current total for May: 15.89"

cstrunk wrote:0.66" Sunday
1.50" Monday
0.53" Tuesday
0.75" Wednesday
1.81" since around midnight until 8 AM this morning on Thursday.

Up to 5.25" of rain this week.

Last week's total was 7.93" with nearly all of it falling within 24 hours on the 11th and 12th.

Current total for May: 15.89"

Wow, that's a lot of rain! We're at 4.64" for May in Heath, most of that in the last week.

I saw a post from a KS met talking about a cooler early-mid summer due to the rain for the middle part of the country. Posted a long-term map showing the same, assuming from CPC.

Guess they finally get you can't just assume La Nina will produce the exact same result every time.

Models seem to be hinting at some sort of tropical low forming in the Gulf and then moving NW into Texas. It would pull a lot of moisture with it and setup the potential for training storms. This could end up being a much bigger issue than the MCS that have moved across portions of Texas so far this week.

bubba hotep wrote:Models seem to be hinting at some sort of tropical low forming in the Gulf and then moving NW into Texas. It would pull a lot of moisture with it and setup the potential for training storms. This could end up being a much bigger issue than the MCS that have moved across portions of Texas so far this week.

Very Interesting.

bubba hotep wrote:Models seem to be hinting at some sort of tropical low forming in the Gulf and then moving NW into Texas. It would pull a lot of moisture with it and setup the potential for training storms. This could end up being a much bigger issue than the MCS that have moved across portions of Texas so far this week.

Perhaps that’s what the GFS was hinting at a few days back but it kept moving it towards LA and not TX?

Cpv17 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Models seem to be hinting at some sort of tropical low forming in the Gulf and then moving NW into Texas. It would pull a lot of moisture with it and setup the potential for training storms. This could end up being a much bigger issue than the MCS that have moved across portions of Texas so far this week.

Perhaps that’s what the GFS was hinting at a few days back but it kept moving it towards LA and not TX?

I think so, the change is due to the ridge shifting further west, pushing the tropical system further west. The GFS had it in central Louisiana last week.

bubba hotep wrote:Models seem to be hinting at some sort of tropical low forming in the Gulf and then moving NW into Texas. It would pull a lot of moisture with it and setup the potential for training storms. This could end up being a much bigger issue than the MCS that have moved across portions of Texas so far this week.

Which models are hinting at this and when?

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Models seem to be hinting at some sort of tropical low forming in the Gulf and then moving NW into Texas. It would pull a lot of moisture with it and setup the potential for training storms. This could end up being a much bigger issue than the MCS that have moved across portions of Texas so far this week.

Which models are hinting at this and when?

Lots of models are hinting at it and for tomorrow into Saturday. You should check out the UKMET.

The European model is now onboard as well.

Cpv17 wrote:

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Models seem to be hinting at some sort of tropical low forming in the Gulf and then moving NW into Texas. It would pull a lot of moisture with it and setup the potential for training storms. This could end up being a much bigger issue than the MCS that have moved across portions of Texas so far this week.

Which models are hinting at this and when?

Lots of models are hinting at it and for tomorrow into Saturday. You should check out the UKMET.

Very interesting about the quick spin-up. Looks like the UKMET is more SW than the Euro. The GFS tries to close it off about where the Euro shows the COC tomorrow evening.

Quite a signal on the EPS this is within 3 days

I’m curious to hear yalls thoughts and opinions about the weather and what we can expect for the next few weeks? Will the spigot turn off or can we expect it to still stay on? Looks to me like after this weekend it might turn off especially for the southern half of the state.

Cpv17 wrote:I’m curious to hear yalls thoughts and opinions about the weather and what we can expect for the next few weeks? Will the spigot turn off or can we expect it to still stay on? Looks to me like after this weekend it might turn off especially for the southern half of the state.

The spigot may turn off temporarily (for 1-3 weeks), but somehow I suspect that a large portion of this summer may be wetter than average. In years past, when late May is wet, that usually is a good signal for a wetter summer. Dry summers usually result from a lack of average to above average precipitation in the spring. When the ground is saturated going into summer, the pattern is hard to break due to large amounts of water evaporating.

This usually results in horribly humid conditions but with lower temps in summer which isn't bad. Can't have it both ways in a Texas summer. It's either hot as hell or humid or both. I'll take rain or clouds in summer anyday.

gpsnowman wrote::uarrow: This usually results in horribly humid conditions but with lower temps in summer which isn't bad. Can't have it both ways in a Texas summer. It's either hot as hell or humid or both. I'll take rain or clouds in summer anyday.

No doubt about that. I’ll take the rain any day than 100 degree temps with a feels like or 110. Screw that!!

Our tropical low has moved inland and will bring rain to the state today and tomorrow. Doesn't look like there will be much in the way of flooding, so this is a best case scenario for a landfalling tropical low. Beyond that, the wet pattern looks to continue for much of Texas over the next couple of weeks. Also, CPC is seeing avg rainfall for much of Texas for the summer. Maybe we can get into the Fall without a large drought setting in

bubba hotep wrote:Our tropical low has moved inland and will bring rain to the state today and tomorrow. Doesn't look like there will be much in the way of flooding, so this is a best case scenario for a landfalling tropical low. Beyond that, the wet pattern looks to continue for much of Texas over the next couple of weeks. Also, CPC is seeing avg rainfall for much of Texas for the summer. Maybe we can get into the Fall without a large drought setting in

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E11Ww_IVcAAz8gJ?format=png&name=large

Unless a large ridge builds in and lingers for a month or more, a large drought is unlikely to happen this summer. Considering how wet this month has been, once the sun heats up the ground and water begins to evaporate, summer showers will likely result. While not impossible, the chances of a dry summer are continuing to decrease. This year is MUCH greener/wetter than the years 2011-2013.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Our tropical low has moved inland and will bring rain to the state today and tomorrow. Doesn't look like there will be much in the way of flooding, so this is a best case scenario for a landfalling tropical low. Beyond that, the wet pattern looks to continue for much of Texas over the next couple of weeks. Also, CPC is seeing avg rainfall for much of Texas for the summer. Maybe we can get into the Fall without a large drought setting in

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E11Ww_IVcAAz8gJ?format=png&name=large

Unless a large ridge builds in and lingers for a month or more, a large drought is unlikely to happen this summer. Considering how wet this month has been, once the sun heats up the ground and water begins to evaporate, summer showers will likely result. While not impossible, the chances of a dry summer are continuing to decrease. This year is MUCH greener/wetter than the years 2011-2013.

We’ve now had 21” here since April 30th.