Texas Summer 2021

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Rgv20
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#361 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:57 pm

:uarrow: Yeah to far out for specifics but the one constant forecast from the GFS/GEFS is the abundant Tropical moisture coming up from the NW Caribbean and BOC towards the Western GOM and Texas.

I just want some rain as this past few weeks temperatures have been hovering in the 100s....Granted normal high for this time of year is 99 :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#362 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Aug 19, 2021 3:21 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:GFS and its Ensembles have been consistent on setting up a rainy pattern/possible tropical trouble for the Southern half of Texas starting next weekend.


And since this is so far out, this could be further north, or even nothing may happen. However, I think there will be something given the time of year. The western and northwestern Gulf is boiling right now too.


I’d put my confidence level at about 60% right now that something does end up forming.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#363 Postby IcyTundra » Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:33 pm

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#364 Postby cstrunk » Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:05 am

My Tues-Thurs event total ended up at 5.89".

Extremely humid this morning.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#365 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:59 pm

12z GEFS just came in with its most interesting run yet. Definitely gaining some traction that we’ll see something in the western Gulf in 7-10 days.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#366 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:57 am

Cpv17 wrote:12z GEFS just came in with its most interesting run yet. Definitely gaining some traction that we’ll see something in the western Gulf in 7-10 days.

The 6z gefs from this morning is sure to raise some eyebrows.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#367 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:03 pm

Tropical action on the east coast and trough in the Pacific NW. That'll leave us with seasonably hot and boring weather for the next week.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#368 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:52 pm

Let's just imagine this storm at the end of the 0z CMC is a historic Gulf Low in January moving north-northwest along a negatively tilted trough with artic cold in place.

Image

A man can dream, right? :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#369 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:38 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Let's just imagine this storm at the end of the 0z CMC is a historic Gulf Low in January moving north-northwest along a negatively tilted trough with artic cold in place.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/pJg62Zf/gem-ir-us-41.png [/url]

A man can dream, right? :lol:


Heck yeah lol
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#370 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:24 am

Whatever you do, don't look at the 8.22.2021 0z GFS model. Trust me
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#371 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:20 pm

Click bait. :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#372 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:21 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Whatever you do, don't look at the 8.22.2021 0z GFS model. Trust me


Scary run!
Last edited by weatherdude1108 on Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#373 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:30 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Whatever you do, don't look at the 8.22.2021 0z GFS model. Trust me


Click bait :lol: Scary run though!


I was warning you! If that verified, it would become a Rita situation!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#374 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:58 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Let's just imagine this storm at the end of the 0z CMC is a historic Gulf Low in January moving north-northwest along a negatively tilted trough with artic cold in place.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/pJg62Zf/gem-ir-us-41.png [/url]

A man can dream, right? :lol:


Not another 2020-2021 Winter Repeat! :eek: :lol:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#375 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:50 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Let's just imagine this storm at the end of the 0z CMC is a historic Gulf Low in January moving north-northwest along a negatively tilted trough with artic cold in place.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/pJg62Zf/gem-ir-us-41.png [/url]

A man can dream, right? :lol:


Not another 2020-2021 Winter Repeat! :eek: :lol:


A TV met up here is already saying a similar pattern :double:
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#376 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:33 pm

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion...Will see how things evolve as we head until the work week.

Code: Select all

The main forecast challenge will be from Thursday onward. Models
continue to trend cooler and wetter into next weekend as the mid-
level ridge begins to break down, a trough digs into the PacNW and a
tropical wave/mid-level inverted trough retrogrades over the Gulf
of Mexico. Late in the week the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models
all have a tropical system forming in the western Caribbean and
entering the southern Gulf of Mexico sometime next weekend. This
coincides with CPC`s Moderate Confidence level of tropical cyclone
development in their week 2 Global Tropical Hazards Outlook. As
models continue to maintain the development of this system have
increased PoPs slightly for Thursday, onward. Changes in the
forecast will be likely for the later half of the period as the
potential for tropical activity increases.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#377 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:54 pm

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Let's just imagine this storm at the end of the 0z CMC is a historic Gulf Low in January moving north-northwest along a negatively tilted trough with artic cold in place.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/pJg62Zf/gem-ir-us-41.png [/url]

A man can dream, right? :lol:


Not another 2020-2021 Winter Repeat! :eek: :lol:


A TV met up here is already saying a similar pattern :double:

Nope I refuse to believe it will happen again. :spam: Nice winter of 50-60F temps would be great
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#378 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:16 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Not another 2020-2021 Winter Repeat! :eek: :lol:


A TV met up here is already saying a similar pattern :double:

Nope I refuse to believe it will happen again. :spam: Nice winter of 50-60F temps would be great


I'm not sure about that, the general trend for Mild Summers are usually Earlier, Harsher, & Longer Winters . . .
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#379 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:33 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Brent wrote:
A TV met up here is already saying a similar pattern :double:

Nope I refuse to believe it will happen again. :spam: Nice winter of 50-60F temps would be great


I'm not sure about that, the general trend for Mild Summers are usually Earlier, Harsher, & Longer Winters . . .

Yeah I know that was just wishful thinking/hoping :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#380 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:32 am

Big difference between the 0z and 6z in a potential landfalling storm.

8/23/2021 6z
Image

8/23/2021 0z
Image
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