Texas Summer 2021

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#381 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:49 am


Considering that’s at 330hr, I think it’s actually concerningly consistent. The gfs continues to show a system coming north over Cuba, then bending it west, with some degree of a bend to the north around the time of landfall. Lots of time for things to change, but I am really not a fan of that angle of approach to landfall
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#382 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:36 pm

We have 2 new invests in the Atlantic.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#383 Postby wxman22 » Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:23 pm

12Z Euro

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#384 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:14 pm



The Euro ensembles are all over Texas :double: and this is next week not really fantasy land
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#385 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:25 pm

Brent wrote:


The Euro ensembles are all over Texas :double: and this is next week not really fantasy land


Yeppers. Watching it closely.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#386 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:49 pm

Key is to watch the high in the SE. See how confident the models are with that particular cog in the wheel. For now, its very consistent with its positioning.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#387 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Aug 23, 2021 6:50 pm

Possible Tropical Cyclone in the Western GOM come Sunday into Monday.

WPC Day 7 valid Monday 12z....Usually has a good idea of what the NHC is thinking for the longer range.

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#388 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 23, 2021 7:46 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:


The Euro ensembles are all over Texas :double: and this is next week not really fantasy land


Yeppers. Watching it closely.


Yeah after what Grace just did... Definitely raises eyebrows
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#389 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:53 pm

Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#390 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:56 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

Image


Um, 50 knots over hardwood tree forests is VERY WORRYING! It would topple a LOT of them!
Last edited by Iceresistance on Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#391 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:58 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021082312/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_11.png

Um, 50 knots over hardwood trees is VERY WORRYING! It would topple them!


Lol I think he's making a joke about how terrible the Euro has been at day 10 :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#392 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:00 pm

Icon agreeing with the Euro :double:

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#393 Postby Bhow » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:24 am

06z GFS only drops 16 inches on Austin.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#394 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:25 am

Bhow wrote:06z GFS only drops 16 inches on Austin.


Would be a disaster for Austin.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#395 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:06 am

12z ICON model with a landfall around Rockport:

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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#396 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:29 am

I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now

The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#397 Postby lukem » Tue Aug 24, 2021 12:23 pm

12z GFS brings a ton of rain inland to Texas. Looks like the entire state would get soaked. Also shows another storm in the gulf the week after, but right now it has it going into Mexico.
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#398 Postby underthwx » Tue Aug 24, 2021 12:26 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021082312/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_11.png


Lol...
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#399 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 24, 2021 12:57 pm

Brent wrote:I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now

The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table


Yep. We’ve seen that one before..
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Re: Texas Summer 2021

#400 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:26 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now

The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table


Yep. We’ve seen that one before..


Yeah didn't want to bring it up but I've seen comparisons :spam:
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