STORM2K

weatherdude1108 wrote:Big difference between the 0z and 6z in a potential landfalling storm.

8/23/2021 6z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021082306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_55.png

8/23/2021 0z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021082300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_61.png

Considering that’s at 330hr, I think it’s actually concerningly consistent. The gfs continues to show a system coming north over Cuba, then bending it west, with some degree of a bend to the north around the time of landfall. Lots of time for things to change, but I am really not a fan of that angle of approach to landfall

We have 2 new invests in the Atlantic.

12Z Euro

wxman22 wrote:12Z Euro

https://i.ibb.co/JKLRQ1T/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-gom-3.png

The Euro ensembles are all over Texas and this is next week not really fantasy land

Brent wrote:

wxman22 wrote:12Z Euro

https://i.ibb.co/JKLRQ1T/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-gom-3.png

The Euro ensembles are all over Texas and this is next week not really fantasy land

Yeppers. Watching it closely.

Key is to watch the high in the SE. See how confident the models are with that particular cog in the wheel. For now, its very consistent with its positioning.

Possible Tropical Cyclone in the Western GOM come Sunday into Monday.

WPC Day 7 valid Monday 12z....Usually has a good idea of what the NHC is thinking for the longer range.

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:

wxman22 wrote:12Z Euro

https://i.ibb.co/JKLRQ1T/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-gom-3.png

The Euro ensembles are all over Texas and this is next week not really fantasy land

Yeppers. Watching it closely.

Yeah after what Grace just did... Definitely raises eyebrows

Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

bubba hotep wrote:Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

Um, 50 knots over hardwood tree forests is VERY WORRYING! It would topple a LOT of them!

Iceresistance wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021082312/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_11.png

Um, 50 knots over hardwood trees is VERY WORRYING! It would topple them!

Lol I think he's making a joke about how terrible the Euro has been at day 10

Icon agreeing with the Euro

06z GFS only drops 16 inches on Austin.

Bhow wrote:06z GFS only drops 16 inches on Austin.

Would be a disaster for Austin.

12z ICON model with a landfall around Rockport:

I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now

The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table

12z GFS brings a ton of rain inland to Texas. Looks like the entire state would get soaked. Also shows another storm in the gulf the week after, but right now it has it going into Mexico.

bubba hotep wrote:Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021082312/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_11.png

Lol...

Brent wrote:I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now

The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table

Yep. We’ve seen that one before..

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now

The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table

Yep. We’ve seen that one before..

Yeah didn't want to bring it up but I've seen comparisons