Texas Fall 2021

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#701 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:02 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:New latest first snow for folks in Denver. You're welcome.

I think 1" of snow needs to be recorded for things to become official. It snowed the other day for about an hour, moderately, but wasnt enough to register. Next 10 days dont look good.


The models consistently have underestimated the +EPO in the 7-10+ day range. On an island, all else not considered, this is not a good sign. But also not surprising since there's been some terrible 2nd near Ninas with ++EPO, and the GOA cold region is reinforcing it.

It's brutally cold in Alaska and the last major cold winter they had was 2011-2012.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#702 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:08 am

Cold in Alaska means above-normal temps in Texas (at least, no major cold here). I hope it stays very cold in Alaska all winter. I get concerned when Alaska warms up.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#703 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:New latest first snow for folks in Denver. You're welcome.

I think 1" of snow needs to be recorded for things to become official. It snowed the other day for about an hour, moderately, but wasnt enough to register. Next 10 days dont look good.


The models consistently have underestimated the +EPO in the 7-10+ day range. On an island, all else not considered, this is not a good sign. But also not surprising since there's been some terrible 2nd near Ninas with ++EPO, and the GOA cold region is reinforcing it.

It's brutally cold in Alaska and the last major cold winter they had was 2011-2012.



Yes 2011-2012 was a horrible winter, while Dec 2011 was pretty much average temp wise it was a wetter than average Dec with 4"+ of rain. January was awful, we were much above average then February was just a little above average but we did get a few snow flurries. March was pretty much like May :( We cancaled that Winter and moved on to Spring Storm season.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#704 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:55 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:New latest first snow for folks in Denver. You're welcome.

I think 1" of snow needs to be recorded for things to become official. It snowed the other day for about an hour, moderately, but wasnt enough to register. Next 10 days dont look good.


The models consistently have underestimated the +EPO in the 7-10+ day range. On an island, all else not considered, this is not a good sign. But also not surprising since there's been some terrible 2nd near Ninas with ++EPO, and the GOA cold region is reinforcing it.

It's brutally cold in Alaska and the last major cold winter they had was 2011-2012.



Yes 2011-2012 was a horrible winter, while Dec 2011 was pretty much average temp wise it was a wetter than average Dec with 4"+ of rain. January was awful, we were much above average then February was just a little above average but we did get a few snow flurries. March was pretty much like May :( We cancaled that Winter and moved on to Spring Storm season.


Yeah 11-12 is worst case scenario and it keeps hanging around
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#705 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:02 pm

18z GFS is looking really nasty to start December for basically the Southern Plains, especially Oklahoma, the Snow line at +312 Hours is literally along I-44 from Missouri to Lawton, OK.

Image
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#706 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:12 pm

Kuchera Ratio Snowfall on the 18z GFS


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https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#707 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:28 pm



Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#708 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:32 pm

Brent wrote:


Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Well, only time will tell if that's the case . . .

I do want to mention that the GFS is showing strong consistency for the December Cold wave
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#709 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:04 pm

Brent wrote:


Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Hah, not even December yet and you’re already this exasperated? I’ll be sure to send you a care package come January :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#710 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:26 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Brent wrote:


Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Hah, not even December yet and you’re already this exasperated? I’ll be sure to send you a care package come January :lol:

More like February
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#711 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:30 pm

Brent wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
The models consistently have underestimated the +EPO in the 7-10+ day range. On an island, all else not considered, this is not a good sign. But also not surprising since there's been some terrible 2nd near Ninas with ++EPO, and the GOA cold region is reinforcing it.

It's brutally cold in Alaska and the last major cold winter they had was 2011-2012.



Yes 2011-2012 was a horrible winter, while Dec 2011 was pretty much average temp wise it was a wetter than average Dec with 4"+ of rain. January was awful, we were much above average then February was just a little above average but we did get a few snow flurries. March was pretty much like May :( We cancaled that Winter and moved on to Spring Storm season.


Yeah 11-12 is worst case scenario and it keeps hanging around


Every year is going to be slightly different but yeah second Ninas do have their risks. The problem is that very cold water south of Alaska is a driving force. Models try to prop up the EPO ridge but eventually they have to correct since colder waters there favor lower heights. The reverse happened when there was an anomalous warm pool there in 2013-2014.

To defeat this feature we need a good PNA alongside a strong -WPO, also a west based -NAO.

Current

Image


There is a mix here for backend continuing Ninas.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#712 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:41 pm

Comparison to last year for reference. South of Alaska was completely different.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#713 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:36 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Brent wrote:


Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Hah, not even December yet and you’re already this exasperated? I’ll be sure to send you a care package come January :lol:


Lol i'm exaggerating a bit but I'm still I guess remembering how we thought Thanksgiving would be interesting lol

It is still early though thats for sure
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#714 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:

Yes 2011-2012 was a horrible winter, while Dec 2011 was pretty much average temp wise it was a wetter than average Dec with 4"+ of rain. January was awful, we were much above average then February was just a little above average but we did get a few snow flurries. March was pretty much like May :( We cancaled that Winter and moved on to Spring Storm season.


Yeah 11-12 is worst case scenario and it keeps hanging around


Every year is going to be slightly different but yeah second Ninas do have their risks. The problem is that very cold water south of Alaska is a driving force. Models try to prop up the EPO ridge but eventually they have to correct since colder waters there favor lower heights. The reverse happened when there was an anomalous warm pool there in 2013-2014.

To defeat this feature we need a good PNA alongside a strong -WPO, also a west based -NAO.

Current

https://i.imgur.com/OXVOgNu.png


There is a mix here for backend continuing Ninas.

https://i.imgur.com/mojEWee.png

https://i.imgur.com/NUD2rgw.png

https://i.imgur.com/aMaJW9A.png

https://i.imgur.com/Cre8THN.png


Does this mean that it's going to be harder to get Winter Weather for this area?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#715 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
Yeah 11-12 is worst case scenario and it keeps hanging around


Every year is going to be slightly different but yeah second Ninas do have their risks. The problem is that very cold water south of Alaska is a driving force. Models try to prop up the EPO ridge but eventually they have to correct since colder waters there favor lower heights. The reverse happened when there was an anomalous warm pool there in 2013-2014.

To defeat this feature we need a good PNA alongside a strong -WPO, also a west based -NAO.

Current

https://i.imgur.com/OXVOgNu.png


There is a mix here for backend continuing Ninas.

https://i.imgur.com/mojEWee.png

https://i.imgur.com/NUD2rgw.png

https://i.imgur.com/aMaJW9A.png

https://i.imgur.com/Cre8THN.png


Does this mean that it's going to be harder to get Winter Weather for this area?


Not sure yet. But even in 2011 west Texas cashed out. There is no doubt in any Nina a large pool of cold will generate in the white north. That's about guaranteed. The big question is can you buckle that zonal flow from the Pacific to allow it to move south, it just takes one or two good timing of the jet, just less likely with it being so strong. If anything the coldest periods in these second string Nina is about late December to early January. IF the pattern can break then you flood with a lot of cold air for a period.

As far as moisture the next 6-12 months it is now clear as day dry periods will outnumber the wet times. And when it does rain it tends to underperform due to the big -PDO.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#716 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:50 pm

I did not see the 12z Euro until now, faster than the 18z GFS & is about on par with the 12z GFS except on an Oklahoma scale, literally!

Image
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#717 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:41 pm

We lived in Midland in 2011. I see photos of a big snow in early December that year in my phone.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#718 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:41 am

The 12z GFS has a big storm within 300 hours.

ETA: 2 of them within 336 hours (2 Weeks)
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#719 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:59 pm

18z GFS clearly shows a +PNA when the Cold Air comes in Early December
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#720 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:48 pm

Ntx and wxman are very right about the cold water near alaska. If there is a low sitting over the top of Alaska, does not bode well for the southern plains or for -EPO. I think an Oshtok low (sp?), which hangs just west of Alaska is a good/better sign for us and the EPO. Something to look for.

Meanwhile, here in Denver, next 7 days we will have temps around 65 for high. 16-18 degrees above normal.
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