Texas Fall 2021

[Brent]

I would not be surprised at all to see the trends toward a powerhouse storm around Thanksgiving.

Big -NAO retrogression will allow storms to dig and really wind up since it slows the flow down dramatically. We've already seen some potent systems swing out (remember the severe weather outbreaks this fall?) with numerous wind warnings and advisories the past month or two. What this tells us is the background environment is favoring deepening systems as they come out of the west. And for the most part, at varying intervals, the west NAO blocking regime hasn't really left.

It’s beginning to look like someone’s wall is showing serious cracks….

Did it honestly last after February

[EnnisTx]

I would not be surprised at all to see the trends toward a powerhouse storm around Thanksgiving.

Big -NAO retrogression will allow storms to dig and really wind up since it slows the flow down dramatically. We've already seen some potent systems swing out (remember the severe weather outbreaks this fall?) with numerous wind warnings and advisories the past month or two. What this tells us is the background environment is favoring deepening systems as they come out of the west. And for the most part, at varying intervals, the west NAO blocking regime hasn't really left.

It’s beginning to look like someone’s wall is showing serious cracks….

Did it honestly last after February

Looks like he may want to apply for some of that New infrastructure funding

[Brent]

Didn't catch the others but the TV met I just watched had a "stay tuned" for Thanksgiving and yesterday he was saying no snow

GFS still shows nothing but some rain in most of Texas the exception the far west where some snow appears

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has backed off on the snow forecast, but KWTV has showed one of the models with snow on the backside of the storm system, they did say 'It's still several days out'

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think and hope this first block near Greenland can cause chaos in the arctic for sometime.

Yes, the GEFS is showing an Extremely Negative NAO for quite some time

My point is that having high heights linger and circulate around the arctic can cause disturbance for weeks sometimes. If you look back at some major cold snaps we've had, some times it began with a massive block at high latitudes weeks before.

[Cpv17]

I think and hope this first block near Greenland can cause chaos in the arctic for sometime.

Yes, the GEFS is showing an Extremely Negative NAO for quite some time

My point is that having high heights linger and circulate around the arctic can cause disturbance for weeks sometimes. If you look back at some major cold snaps we've had, some times it began with a massive block at high latitudes weeks before.

If only the EPO was a lil more favorable right now! NAO looks great.

[Iceresistance]

Yes, the GEFS is showing an Extremely Negative NAO for quite some time

My point is that having high heights linger and circulate around the arctic can cause disturbance for weeks sometimes. If you look back at some major cold snaps we've had, some times it began with a massive block at high latitudes weeks before.

If only the EPO was a lil more favorable right now! NAO looks great.

I've seen cases where the EPO is not needed for snow. Not very many cases, but the chances are there.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So after checking out the models this am: The 0z GFS and Euro 0z are basically what im hoping for. The high pressure hangs around and shifts westward towards Hudson Bay. Too early to focus on the details of the weather in the CONUS after 8 days with all of this going on, but we just need that block to hang around the arctic.

One thing i remember was how the models often try to progress and get rid of the blocks too quickly. For example, the Feb event lasted longer than initially expected because the block didnt go away. I remember models having trouble with it 5-6 days out.

[rwfromkansas]

Apparently, the NWS has redefined the definition of a freeze warning to not even require a freeze anymore.

I saw the alert and was like what?! Then, the forecast low is 35. That's not a freeze. Heck, much of the warning area is above freezing per forecast. It should have only been issued for west and east of the metro on north.

Edit to add: It does say 31 for MBY in the forecast grid. I guess their graphic needs more detail.

[TropicalTundra]

Apparently, the NWS has redefined the definition of a freeze warning to not even require a freeze anymore.

I saw the alert and was like what?! Then, the forecast low is 35. That's not a freeze. Heck, much of the warning area is above freezing per forecast. It should have only been issued for west and east of the metro on north.

Edit to add: It does say 31 for MBY in the forecast grid. I guess their graphic needs more detail.

I think the freeze warning also applies for areas near you as well. It could be 35 or 31 for your area, but if another area is predicted to be 32 or lower the alert will still be put in place.

[Iceresistance]

Apparently, the NWS has redefined the definition of a freeze warning to not even require a freeze anymore.

I saw the alert and was like what?! Then, the forecast low is 35. That's not a freeze. Heck, much of the warning area is above freezing per forecast. It should have only been issued for west and east of the metro on north.

Edit to add: It does say 31 for MBY in the forecast grid. I guess their graphic needs more detail.

Term 'Locally Colder', & they are putting out the Freeze Warning as a enhanced alert for a Frost Advisory.

[Ntxw]

Apparently, the NWS has redefined the definition of a freeze warning to not even require a freeze anymore.

I saw the alert and was like what?! Then, the forecast low is 35. That's not a freeze. Heck, much of the warning area is above freezing per forecast. It should have only been issued for west and east of the metro on north.

Edit to add: It does say 31 for MBY in the forecast grid. I guess their graphic needs more detail.

There should be a freeze for most. Areas that may stay above is the immediate concrete jungle but even here if winds die down could go also. It is technically a widespread freeze but always a urban heat island caveat.

[rwfromkansas]

It looks like the freeze will come a few days earlier than average, which is good. Begone bugs.

[Brent]

Well all three globals have zero snow now anywhere remotely close great trends today at least it's still November

Not really cold either for Thanksgiving CMC is coldest in Dallas with temperatures in the 50s and it gets worse from there GFS 60s Euro 70s

[Iceresistance]

Well all three globals have zero snow now anywhere remotely close great trends today at least it's still November

Not really cold either for Thanksgiving CMC is coldest in Dallas with temperatures in the 50s and it gets worse from there GFS 60s Euro 70s

Remember the models started to have trouble with the consistency around 6-8 Days out on the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow?

[Brent]

Well all three globals have zero snow now anywhere remotely close great trends today at least it's still November

Not really cold either for Thanksgiving CMC is coldest in Dallas with temperatures in the 50s and it gets worse from there GFS 60s Euro 70s

Remember the models started to have trouble with the consistency around 6-8 Days out on the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow?

Maybe but it is still November. I'm just not sure the full potential can be realized. Not nearly as much cold upstream yet

Things can change of course and I'm not saying it can't happen but I'm skeptical of a big event that's for sure. I never bought the Euro showing 17 Inches here anyway

[Ntxw]

It's definitely the trend today is for more separated N stream vs S stream (still not consistent with the baja feature).

But just FYI November thus far has been dominated by the -WPO and -NAO. It'll be interesting to see this continue to play out. The last real decent -WPO winter was 2013-2014. The EPO and Pacific jet hasn't yet joined the party.

[bubba hotep]

A bit more ensemble support today for the 12z Euro solution. I remain skeptical, simple b/c this is more an El Nino looking storm system at 192 but the higher heights across the Great Lakes seem to support the solution. (Side bar - Can anyone point to a paper that discusses the climatology of cool season cutoff lows in the SW US?)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021111712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

Also, given the nature of the blocking in the NAO region, I wouldn't be surprise to see this take a more southerly track vs. cutting towards the Ohio Valley, if it were to verify at 192.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021111712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

An even bigger jump in the ensemble guidance towards a cutoff coming of the SW. However, not a lot of cold air available as the timing is off b/w the NS and the cutoff. We need something to change or the ridge blocks the cutoffs access to colder air that is up north. Just not enough cold air up north and we will likely only see a significant rain event, unless the NS s/w and the cutoff can phase into a blockbuster.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is a little better than the 12z GFS with a Rain/Snow mix in Panhandle Texas & NW Oklahoma

[Iceresistance]

A bit more ensemble support today for the 12z Euro solution. I remain skeptical, simple b/c this is more an El Nino looking storm system at 192 but the higher heights across the Great Lakes seem to support the solution. (Side bar - Can anyone point to a paper that discusses the climatology of cool season cutoff lows in the SW US?)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021111712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

Also, given the nature of the blocking in the NAO region, I wouldn't be surprise to see this take a more southerly track vs. cutting towards the Ohio Valley, if it were to verify at 192.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021111712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

An even bigger jump in the ensemble guidance towards a cutoff coming of the SW. However, not a lot of cold air available as the timing is off b/w the NS and the cutoff. We need something to change or the ridge blocks the cutoffs access to colder air that is up north. Just not enough cold air up north and we will likely only see a significant rain event, unless the NS s/w and the cutoff can phase into a blockbuster.

https://i.ibb.co/0p0vCpw/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-9.png

It's the timing that is also key for the Thanksgiving Winter Weather, it must be right for this to become a BIG storm in November standards