Texas Fall 2021

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starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#681 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:PNA trends today were not that great. Too positive for next week.
The PNA doesn't look too bad.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#682 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:42 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:PNA trends today were not that great. Too positive for next week.
The PNA doesn't look too bad.



Further down the road no, but it's going to be trending positive at the wrong time for us next week. If we had another system to take advantage once that trend stops and it starts to go back down we could probably cash in on something, but right now, timing looks too displaced.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#683 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:45 pm

Looks like a big rain event to me. Probably best hope is some token flakes as it ends right now
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#684 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:55 pm

Brent wrote:Looks like a big rain event to me. Probably best hope is some token flakes as it ends right now


Not even too sure yet about it being that…
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#685 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:15 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:Looks like a big rain event to me. Probably best hope is some token flakes as it ends right now


Not even too sure yet about it being that…


You got a point there the GFS and CMC are much less impressive than the Euro more of a quick hit of rain
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#686 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:44 am

The last several rain events for NTX have been either feast or famine, you either got 1"+ or less than 0.25" and for me here at the casa it's been mostly famine :cry:
The models always talk a BIG game till it's time to preform then it's "we'll see" :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#687 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Nov 20, 2021 10:10 am

If only La Niña could also feature a strong southern stream.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#688 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:16 pm

Yeah trends today not interesting less cold and less rain. The front isn't even colder than the one we just had
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#689 Postby BTAYLOR5021 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:20 pm

15 day shows seasonable to slightly above average. Hope it turns cold soon
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#690 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 20, 2021 3:06 pm

We may not be able to get snow on Thanksgiving week, the AO & NAO are way more Positive than expected right now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#691 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Nov 21, 2021 2:21 pm

All quiet in here.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#692 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 21, 2021 3:55 pm

Early December might get interesting, especially since the 12z GEFS is showing this:

Image
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

Image
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2m_namer_65.png

The Greenland & Alaska Blocks will do the trick, but the East Coast block will guarantee that the cold will come down this way, only time will tell if this is the case.

Image
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#693 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:25 pm

Mild couple of days leading up to the holiday then a cooler Thanksgiving on tap, though mostly dry.

We are now sitting at a crossroads. Very cold air is sitting and spinning in Alaska and the Yukon. We anxiously watch if that ever comes down or if it just sits up there all winter. We either go towards last year's product or 2011-2012 where the cold just sits up there all winter and nothing ever happened. We are fighting a strong +EPO regime that second year Ninas loves to do. Of course, anything that does happen is 10+ days away...you know that drill.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#694 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:20 am

Tweet from yesterday…

@RyanMaue — Alaska going thru at least 7-10 days of brutally cold conditions. Temperatures way below 0°F and wind chills colder than -50°F where some people live.

Idea is that this cold sits and spins for next 10-days or so, then unloads on the Lower 48 with major Arctic blast early Dec
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#695 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:46 pm

Driving home on I20 Westbound in Grand Prairie, TXDOT message board reads, Watch for crews ice prevention in progress...

I think someone pushed the wrong button... :P
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#696 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:16 pm

EnnisTx wrote:Driving home on I20 Westbound in Grand Prairie, TXDOT message board reads, Watch for crews ice prevention in progress...

I think someone pushed the wrong button... :P

Just some practice time for DJFM.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#697 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:51 pm

What is with the 12z GFS? Showing a 1067 MB High over Western Canada & near Alaska is INSANE!
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#698 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:08 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Driving home on I20 Westbound in Grand Prairie, TXDOT message board reads, Watch for crews ice prevention in progress...

I think someone pushed the wrong button... :P

Just some practice time for DJFM.


We hope :spam:

I just hope it's not like 11/12 that winter was trash for snow
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#699 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:46 pm

Iceresistance wrote:What is with the 12z GFS? Showing a 1067 MB High over Western Canada & near Alaska is INSANE!


I think it had one too many tequila shots.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#700 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:46 am

New latest first snow for folks in Denver. You're welcome.

I think 1" of snow needs to be recorded for things to become official. It snowed the other day for about an hour, moderately, but wasnt enough to register. Next 10 days dont look good.
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