STORM2K

The PNA is more Neutral than expected, we could pull this off at this rate.

18z GFS is very interesting to me actually. Multiple close calls for snow, and while none of them really hit, a small change in initial conditions or a slightly different evolution of the flow patterns could allow for us to all cash in. Thanksgiving day has snow in the Panhandle, that Friday has snow in NWA, that following Monday has more snow in the Panhandle, and December 3rd has snow in Eastern Oklahoma. All it would take would be slightly more moisture at one time, or a slightly less progressive, deeper initial trough, or a slight change in direction for one of those to verify. So, while it’s discouraging that the operational models are inconclusive, the potential is more than there. We could easily see something like February-March 2015 again over a week period if the teleconnections work with us, and that’s something the models have always struggled with. Just waiting for the 00z GFS to finish to see if it changes much!

Cerlin wrote:18z GFS is very interesting to me actually. Multiple close calls for snow, and while none of them really hit, a small change in initial conditions or a slightly different evolution of the flow patterns could allow for us to all cash in. Thanksgiving day has snow in the Panhandle, that Friday has snow in NWA, that following Monday has more snow in the Panhandle, and December 3rd has snow in Eastern Oklahoma. All it would take would be slightly more moisture at one time, or a slightly less progressive, deeper initial trough, or a slight change in direction for one of those to verify. So, while it’s discouraging that the operational models are inconclusive, the potential is more than there. We could easily see something like February-March 2015 again over a week period if the teleconnections work with us, and that’s something the models have always struggled with. Just waiting for the 00z GFS to finish to see if it changes much!

Oh yeah I'm definitely not ruling out some kind of event that's for sure. The other point about it being November/first of December is it wouldn't take much to be a big event for this early

Just likely not what the Euro showed yesterday

I think we could get some flurries or a light dusting here in OK sometime around Thanksgiving but I think anything more than that is a stretch at this point. Should definitely get cold though. As long as there's no freezing rain and I don't have to drive back in snow then I'd be fine with it.

Weather Dude wrote:I think we could get some flurries or a light dusting here in OK sometime around Thanksgiving but I think anything more than that is a stretch at this point. Should definitely get cold though. As long as there's no freezing rain and I don't have to drive back in snow then I'd be fine with it.

Speaking of cold already below freezing here and the forecast was marginal for a freeze now that will be something to watch til Thanksgiving I guess to make sure we stay on forecast if the trends hold about being too warm

I know this has nothing to do with next week probably but still

It's back!

The Models expected the PNA to become more negative right now, but it's way more neutral than expected.


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32.0 IMBY. We made it. Glad I was wrong.

Nice brisk run this morning. Had to pull out the cold gear. Like they say, summer miles equals fall smiles!

Colder than I expected at my house, heavy frost as well with ice on the pet's water before I went to school, 29°F

Ended up at 31.5, so pretty impressive for here in north Fort Worth just west of 35. Far enough outside of the urban core still.

Got down to 27 in Norman. Another pretty significant temperature bust here (forecast was only about 30) just like the other morning here. It’s busts like these that make me hopeful for next week!

WPC hinting snow for Panhandle Texas next week


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Models are coming into pretty good agreement on a long duration significant rain event for the Southern Plains.

bubba hotep wrote:Models are coming into pretty good agreement on a long duration significant rain event for the Southern Plains.

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If I can't have snow, I'll take rain any day!

bubba hotep wrote:Models are coming into pretty good agreement on a long duration significant rain event for the Southern Plains.

In his daily POW Ponder Weather video today, Roy Ponder showed the multi-inch rain setup for a lot of Texas into Oklahoma. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend.

gboudx wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Models are coming into pretty good agreement on a long duration significant rain event for the Southern Plains.

In his daily POW Ponder Weather video today, Roy Ponder showed the multi-inch rain setup for a lot of Texas into Oklahoma. Starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend.

Wouldn't that be a nice snow ratio..............

28 here this morning. Chilly.

KFOR is back at it again.


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PNA trends today were not that great. Too positive for next week.