2022 Severe Weather

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ElectricStorm
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#21 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:59 am

Looks like it's gonna be quiet for a while. Winter slump is in full effect now with not much happening the next few weeks.

It do be like that sometimes...
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#22 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:05 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like it's gonna be quiet for a while. Winter slump is in full effect now with not much happening the next few weeks.

It do be like that sometimes...


There are Marginal Risks in the Deep South & Florida in the next couple of days, not much otherwise, even though I don't take any chances, even with a Marginal risk.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#23 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:47 am

Slight Risk for the Florida Panhandle Today.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#24 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:51 pm

Looks like the majority of today's event is going to be nocturnal so hopefully everyone down there has a way to get warnings. Luckily the main threat will be over a small area but as always it only takes one to make it a memorable event.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#25 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:34 pm

Looks like there were several tornadoes this morning with some injuries reported in FL. Hope everyone ends up okay over there.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#26 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:35 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like there were several tornadoes this morning with some injuries reported in FL. Hope everyone ends up okay over there.


That's not good, I'm expected to be in Florida in Early May. (I will try to stay behind at home if there is potential for an Outbreak for Central Oklahoma)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#27 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:24 am

Slight risk for Eastern Texas, most of Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, & Western Mississippi today.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#28 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:38 am

It's been a quiet couple of weeks but models and SPC are both hinting at an uptick in severe weather across parts of TX and eastwards. Still a week out, but this will have to be one to watch.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#29 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:12 pm

Slight risk event ongoing in MS/AL today. Multiple confirmed tornadoes ongoing and a potentially strong one on the ground right now. Hope everyone stays safe down there.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#30 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:32 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Slight risk event ongoing in MS/AL today. Multiple confirmed tornadoes ongoing and a potentially strong one on the ground right now. Hope everyone stays safe down there.

Unfortunately it appears there was a fatality with that strong tornado in AL. Also 8 injuries. 3 of them critical.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#31 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:41 pm

It's a week out so a lot can (and will) change, but I think we're going to have some sort of severe weather event next week, particularly in the dixie alley/deep south region. Might get some action in OK/TX as well but as of right now that's looking like more of a rain event. Most of the time the system moves slower than the models show initially so we'll see what happens. Too early for specifics but it's looking like the 2/16-2/18 range needs to be watched for an uptick in severe weather potential.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#32 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:55 am

The Southern Plains may get a head start in Severe Storms Next Week, then Dixie Alley gets it.

Day 6
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/day6prob.gif

Day 7
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#33 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:55 am

12z NAM sounding near Tecumseh, OK looks really impressive for a Marginal Risk

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#34 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Feb 14, 2022 4:10 pm

A rare special Day 3 outlook :double:
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
Image
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Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#35 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 14, 2022 6:26 pm

Weather Dude wrote:A rare special Day 3 outlook :double:
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif


A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development.
A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ElectricStorm
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Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#36 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:16 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:A rare special Day 3 outlook :double:
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif


A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development.
A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Yeah I'm not surprised at all. I just thought they would wait until the Day 2
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

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Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#37 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:04 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:A rare special Day 3 outlook :double:
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif


A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development.
A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Yeah I'm not surprised at all. I just thought they would wait until the Day 2


If the model trends continue to have Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Northern & NE Texas (And if it also trends stronger Storms), an Enhanced risk may be needed on Day 2.

I don't see a Moderate unless the Models go absolutely crazy & stay that way.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#38 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:26 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development.
A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Yeah I'm not surprised at all. I just thought they would wait until the Day 2


If the model trends continue to have Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Northern & NE Texas (And if it also trends stronger Storms), an Enhanced risk may be needed on Day 2.

I don't see a Moderate unless the Models go absolutely crazy & stay that way.

I could definitely see an enhanced, especially for hail, and maybe wind. Not sure how high the tornado threat is since that cold front will be undercutting the storms. It all depends how quickly the front moves through.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#39 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Feb 15, 2022 12:14 am

We'll talk more about this later after the first system comes through. But this would be crazy moisture for Feb.
I've also never been in a severe weather event on this particular date, not even a marginal risk so this would be a first if this were to somehow verify...
Image
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#40 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:02 am

The SPC has a 5% Tornado threat for this storm system, it appears that the tornado threat is along & south of I-40.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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