STORM2K

The calendar is quickly approaching 2022 and when it does it's time to start looking ahead to spring Coming off a very interesting (and unusual) year of severe weather in 2021, it will be interesting to see what next year holds. 2021 featured yet another below average spring season, but did feature a few high-end events, and several destructive tornadoes on low risk days. Now let's take a look ahead to the 2022 season:

December Forecast:

Obviously it's way to early to nail down any specific details so this won't be near as detailed as later forecasts, more of an early general prediction. We currently have a La Nina in place, and that is expected to continue into the spring before possibly going to neutral sometime in the spring/summer. This would generally feature a good chance of above average activity, but as we saw in 2021, this isn't always the case. Let's break it down by region/month:

Winter Season (Jan/Feb): I'm expecting an average Jan/Feb. More active than 2021 but not anything too crazy. Might have a few notable events, mainly in the deep south/Dixie alley.

March: March 2021 was very active featuring 3 big outbreaks, 2 in Dixie Alley and the other in the plains. While I do think March 2022 could be fairly active, I don't expect it to be as active as last year.

April: I expect April 2022 to be much more active than April 2021, with most of the activity featured in Dixie Alley, with perhaps a couple small scale plains events as well. With the La Nina in place, that should help generate a solid amount of activity across the deep south, and I think that activity will be mostly in April, rather then March like it was in 2021. I don't think April will be quite as active as April 2020, but I think it will be a month to watch out for.

May: May has proven to be quite the wild card in recent years, and it's going to come down to whether we get an active pattern or not. For now, I'm going with another below average-average month for the plains but that could change as we get closer.

Overall my very early prediction for overall activity for the spring season:
Plains: Average
Dixie: Above average

More detailed forecasts to come as we get closer to spring.

Weather Dude wrote:The calendar is quickly approaching 2022 and when it does it's time to start looking ahead to spring Coming off a very interesting (and unusual) year of severe weather in 2021, it will be interesting to see what next year holds. 2021 featured yet another below average spring season, but did feature a few high-end events, and several destructive tornadoes on low risk days. Now let's take a look ahead to the 2022 season:

December Forecast:

Obviously it's way to early to nail down any specific details so this won't be near as detailed as later forecasts, more of an early general prediction. We currently have a La Nina in place, and that is expected to continue into the spring before possibly going to neutral sometime in the spring/summer. This would generally feature a good chance of above average activity, but as we saw in 2021, this isn't always the case. Let's break it down by region/month:

Winter Season (Jan/Feb): I'm expecting an average Jan/Feb. More active than 2021 but not anything too crazy. Might have a few notable events, mainly in the deep south/Dixie alley.

March: March 2021 was very active featuring 3 big outbreaks, 2 in Dixie Alley and the other in the plains. While I do think March 2022 could be fairly active, I don't expect it to be as active as last year.

April: I expect April 2022 to be much more active than April 2021, with most of the activity featured in Dixie Alley, with perhaps a couple small scale plains events as well. With the La Nina in place, that should help generate a solid amount of activity across the deep south, and I think that activity will be mostly in April, rather then March like it was in 2021. I don't think April will be quite as active as April 2020, but I think it will be a month to watch out for.

May: May has proven to be quite the wild card in recent years, and it's going to come down to whether we get an active pattern or not. For now, I'm going with another below average-average month for the plains but that could change as we get closer.

Overall my very early prediction for overall activity for the spring season:
Plains: Average
Dixie: Above average

More detailed forecasts to come as we get closer to spring.

What's your rating on the 2021 Storm Season?

Iceresistance wrote:What's your rating on the 2021 Storm Season?

2021 was certainly the most unusual year for severe weather that I've personally tracked so far. I mean, it's not very often you see the late year "second season" outperform the regular spring season (except for March). Oct/Dec 2021 probably isn't going to be beat for a very long time.

But for the spring season, it's also unusual for March to outperform April and May, which we saw last year as well. I do find it interesting that despite all the hype, the 2021 season was yet another underwhelming year, not just for tornadoes, but also storms in general. I think the big drought in the SW had partly to do with that, like I mentioned a few times in the 2021 thread. But the cold snap in April and an unfavorable pattern in May also had a big influence.

So basically early and late in the year was very active, but peak season was inactive, definitely an unusual year all around. I would expect 2022 to look much more like a "normal" year where most of the action is during peak season, although that's just all speculation at this point.

There are early signs of a potential severe weather & tornado event in the southern US during January 1-2, 2022. Just a heads up in case something happens.

I can't remember any years that had a big outbreak on the first day of the year but that's what we may be looking at to start off 2022. Day 6 slight risk up for Dixie alley for Saturday. Moisture and shear will definitely not be an issue. Stay tuned.

Weather Dude wrote:I can't remember any years that had a big outbreak on the first day of the year but that's what we may be looking at to start off 2022. Day 6 slight risk up for Dixie alley for Saturday. Moisture and shear will definitely not be an issue. Stay tuned.

There was an outbreak on New Year's Eve 2010 but that's the closest I can recall off the top of my head.

Very Broad Slight risk for Dixie Alley on New Years day.

Do want to point out that just a couple days after that, snow is expected down there.

Enhanced risk up for New Years day with a 10% HATCHED Tornado threat, the Enhanced risk is also kinda broad as well, there is room for a Moderate Risk if the models back that up.

 https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1477321153421086725

Bowling Green has been hit again.

 https://twitter.com/StormyClaussen/status/1477347284912427008

Tornado a couple of days ago passed within a couple of miles to me. Ef0 but cool nonetheless.(Hall county GA)

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1477361423852335107

 https://twitter.com/severestudios/status/1477398026499022848

The first enhanced risk of the year was a major underperformance. Besides a few weak confirmed tornadoes, nothing else was able to get going thankfully. The culprit for that was the warm nose/cap inversion, similar to what happened on 5/20/19.

Next severe weather threat will likely be next Fri/Sat in the deep south.

Marginal Risk for SE Texas Saturday, first one for Texas this Year

-PNA looks to return for Spring severe season. The current +PNA phase appears to be just a hiccup. If December with its -PNA was anything to go by, the least we can expect is a lot of wavebreaking and shortwave troughs, and the most is nothing good.

Marginal risk moment...
Multiple supercells down by Houston with at least one ongoing confirmed tornado. Hopefully everyone stays safe down there.

Marginal risk up for tomorrow as well along the gulf coast.

Weather Dude wrote:Marginal risk moment...
Multiple supercells down by Houston with at least one ongoing confirmed tornado. Hopefully everyone stays safe down there.

Marginal risk up for tomorrow as well along the gulf coast.

Tornado Watch has just been posted for Houston

Eastern half of the tor watch has been upgraded to a slight risk.

Slight risk with a Tornado Watch for Southern Alabama right now