2022 Severe Weather

[Iceresistance]

12z RDPS has a defined Squall Line/Bow Echo for Oklahoma & Northern Texas, the model said up to 6 inches of rain per hour, I find that difficult to believe.



https://s10.gifyu.com/images/12z-RDPS.png

[ElectricStorm]

0z HRRR has a better defined squall line for tomorrow's event than earlier runs were showing which is typical for that model. Overall I'm not expecting anything crazy but it will be a nocturnal event so that always adds a bit extra danger. Should be a pretty typical squall line with some QLCS spin ups possible. Hopefully everyone is prepared has a way to get warnings as this should be our first organized severe weather event since October.

[ElectricStorm]

Very dangerous day tomorrow. SPC just upgraded to enhanced risk. 10 hatched tor risk and probably has some solid potential to be the first moderate risk of the year.

[ElectricStorm]

First MD is out for this event. Watch likely to be issued soon.

Mesoscale Discussion 0136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

Areas affected...TX South Plains to Central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 170339Z - 170615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across
the southern Plains from central Oklahoma into northwest Texas
tonight. Damaging winds, some hail threat, and perhaps a tornado are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Notable mid-level short-wave trough has quit digging
over northern Mexico and it will soon eject northeast across the
southern High Plains. Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent
is spreading across west TX where deepening mid-level convection is
now penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. 00z
soundings from AMA/MAF exhibited very steep lapse rates in the
lowest 3km but meager PW was evident with 0.25-0.55 inch observed.
Even so, strong UVV/mid-level moistening has contributed to
sufficient buoyancy for an expanding precipitation shield/embedded
thunderstorms from west of MAF-CDS-western OK. Winds have been
gusting in excess of 40kt coincident with this convection, possibly
enhanced by relatively dry sub-cloud layer.

Over the next few hours, large-scale forcing will overspread the
western edge of deeper moisture and a more expansive linear MCS may
ultimately evolve across the southern Plains. Strong wind fields
support supercells but storm mode may be predominately linear and/or
clusters within a broader convective shield. Additionally, polar
front is surging south across northern OK and this boundary will
undercut convection, perhaps limiting cool-sided convection to a
mostly hail threat. While damaging winds/hail are the primary
threats, there is some concern for a few stronger supercells near
the Red River where low-level dew points are creeping to near 60F.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 02/17/2022

The part that gets my attention is the last sentence. If we end up getting some discrete supercells, we would really need to watch out for locally increased tornado risk.

[ElectricStorm]

Watch is up now

[Iceresistance]

Raining pretty good outside, very welcomed since we needed it badly!

[Iceresistance]

Only 1 Tornado Warning (South of Duncan) for the entire system, the Slight risk was a bust, the cold front came in much faster than expected & Undercutted the storms.

[ElectricStorm]

Only 1 Tornado Warning (South of Duncan) for the entire system, the Slight risk was a bust, the cold front came in much faster than expected & Undercutted the storms.

Yeah it was messy from the start. Glad I didn't stay up for it

[Iceresistance]

Only 1 Tornado Warning (South of Duncan) for the entire system, the Slight risk was a bust, the cold front came in much faster than expected & Undercutted the storms.

Yeah it was messy from the start. Glad I didn't stay up for it

I did

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Watch #20 has been posted for Dixie Alley

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1494353056296685568

[ElectricStorm]

Next system supposed to come through Mon-Wed. Slight risks up for Days 3 and 4

[ElectricStorm]

Well tomorrow (today technically) just went from nothing to slight risk for my area in a single update, so now this has my full attention. One slight risk in Feb here is rare enough but 2 of them is extremely rare. Last week's event ended up being a bust, although we did end up with some much needed rain. We'll see what happens this time.

[Iceresistance]

Well tomorrow (today technically) just went from nothing to slight risk for my area in a single update, so now this has my full attention. One slight risk in Feb here is rare enough but 2 of them is extremely rare. Last week's event ended up being a bust, although we did end up with some much needed rain. We'll see what happens this time.

I hope that's not a sign for things to come, this is before the Spring Storm Season.

[ElectricStorm]

Next potential severe weather event looks to be during the first week of March. Still a lot of details to sort out during the next several days but there will likely be some sort of a multi-day event about a week from now, right on time for meteorological spring.

As for March as a whole, I think we could see an active month, especially if the current active pattern we've had over the last month or so can hold on. I don't expect anything like March 2021, but I do think we need to watch for another quick start to severe season.

[cheezyWXguy]

Next potential severe weather event looks to be during the first week of March. Still a lot of details to sort out during the next several days but there will likely be some sort of a multi-day event about a week from now, right on time for meteorological spring.

As for March as a whole, I think we could see an active month, especially if the current active pattern we've had over the last month or so can hold on. I don't expect anything like March 2021, but I do think we need to watch for another quick start to severe season.

Agreed. I haven’t looked much beyond the gfs, but the pattern it shows looks to me like the southern plains gets in on the action, in addition to dixie, instead of like last year where most events just focused on dixie. Also think it’s a pretty safe bet we won’t see back to back high risks like last year

[ElectricStorm]

Really gonna have to watch the triple point in IA on Saturday.


Moisture could be an issue but it would still be enough to get the job done for the most part. SREF has a 30 sigtor contour up.


These triple point setups can really uptrend right before the event, but that being said I'm not expecting anything crazy for now.

[Iceresistance]

The 21z SREF is showing a potentially dangerous setup for Northern Arkansas on Sunday.


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f054.gif

[ElectricStorm]

Enhanced risk up today for straight line winds. Could be some tornadoes but this should mostly be a linear event.

[ElectricStorm]

SPC upgraded to 10% tor risk and that was definitely the right decision. Multiple tornadoes in IA and a likely large one on the ground right now.