2022 Severe Weather

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#141 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Apr 16, 2022 11:14 am

Iceresistance wrote:Tornado Emergency for Northern Arkansas! I did not see that coming at all!

Code: Select all

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES...

At 734 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Hardy, or 9 miles east of Cherokee Village, moving east at 50
mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village...               Ash Flat...
Horseshoe Bend...                 Highland in Sharp County...
Mammoth Spring...                 Hardy...
Imboden...                        Ravenden...
Ravenden Springs...               Ballard...
Annieville...                     Mammoth Spring State Park...
Smithville...                     Williford...
Agnos...                          Armstrong...
Heart...                          Kittle...
Wirth...                          Saddle...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9180 3650 9161 3650 9115 3601 9121
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 283DEG 44KT 3629 9139

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

This TORE seems to have stirred up some controversy, as the reports appear questionable, photos are less than definitive, and the radar signature wasn’t great (though it was in a radar hole). Best picture I’ve seen is a clearly defined funnel, but no ability to see a debris cloud. I guess we will see what the damage surveyors find. Either way, the hail damage was likely the main event.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#142 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Apr 16, 2022 11:56 am

Sometimes mistakes happen. But that hail was life threatening. So whether or not the tor emergency was valid, it may have saved lives. Softball sized hail moving at 100mph is killer hail.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#143 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:30 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Sometimes mistakes happen. But that hail was life threatening. So whether or not the tor emergency was valid, it may have saved lives. Softball sized hail moving at 100mph is killer hail.

It would be a Thunderstorm Emergency if there was no insane rotation with a possible TDS, some of the reflectivity was thought to be the debris ball. It was also in a radar hole as well, which did not help anything.

Also, there was confirmed tornado in Jonesboro after all.

And it's also be safer to be blamed for issuing an unneeded Tornado Emergency than downplaying it. Apparently, the Hail also influenced the warning as well, the Softball sized hail combined with 100 mph winds are about as destructive and as dangerous as a tornado.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#144 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Apr 16, 2022 7:24 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Sometimes mistakes happen. But that hail was life threatening. So whether or not the tor emergency was valid, it may have saved lives. Softball sized hail moving at 100mph is killer hail.

It would be a Thunderstorm Emergency if there was no insane rotation with a possible TDS, some of the reflectivity was thought to be the debris ball. It was also in a radar hole as well, which did not help anything.

Also, there was confirmed tornado in Jonesboro after all.

And it's also be safer to be blamed for issuing an unneeded Tornado Emergency than downplaying it. Apparently, the Hail also influenced the warning as well, the Softball sized hail combined with 100 mph winds are about as destructive and as dangerous as a tornado.


Doesn’t look like there was a tornado:


327
NOUS44 KLZK 162236
PNSLZK
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-171045-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
536 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...Storm Survey Results From The Northeast Arkansas Supercell
That Occurred Friday, April 15, 2022...

A storm survey team from NWS Little Rock assessed damage across
portions of Fulton, Sharp and Lawrence Counties today. After
surveying the affected areas, it was determined that straight line
winds and large wind blown hail caused the damage.

Reports of tornadoes occurring across these areas yesterday could
not be verified. An earlier report of vehicles being flipped over
near Walnut Ridge (Lawrence County) was determined to have been
caused by those vehicles crashing after encountering significant
amounts of accumulated hail on the roadway.

$$

67


Hindsight is 20/20, but a regular tornado warning would have been justifiable. An overwarned TORE is better than an underwarned one, granted, but the bar to get one issued is typically so high that anything short of certainty usually doesn’t get the upgrade. Has there ever been in instance in the past in which a TORE was issued with no tornado on the ground?

Edit: I should add, the lesson here is that we need more radars. Terrain in this area is such that ground truth can be very difficult to accurately provide, even with chasers and emergency responders in the area. Since the nearest radar to the storm couldn’t see below 10,000 feet, benefit of the doubt had to be given, but this never would have happened in an area with a radar in close proximity.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#145 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 16, 2022 10:33 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Sometimes mistakes happen. But that hail was life threatening. So whether or not the tor emergency was valid, it may have saved lives. Softball sized hail moving at 100mph is killer hail.

It would be a Thunderstorm Emergency if there was no insane rotation with a possible TDS, some of the reflectivity was thought to be the debris ball. It was also in a radar hole as well, which did not help anything.

Also, there was confirmed tornado in Jonesboro after all.

And it's also be safer to be blamed for issuing an unneeded Tornado Emergency than downplaying it. Apparently, the Hail also influenced the warning as well, the Softball sized hail combined with 100 mph winds are about as destructive and as dangerous as a tornado.


Doesn’t look like there was a tornado:


327
NOUS44 KLZK 162236
PNSLZK
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-171045-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
536 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...Storm Survey Results From The Northeast Arkansas Supercell
That Occurred Friday, April 15, 2022...

A storm survey team from NWS Little Rock assessed damage across
portions of Fulton, Sharp and Lawrence Counties today. After
surveying the affected areas, it was determined that straight line
winds and large wind blown hail caused the damage.

Reports of tornadoes occurring across these areas yesterday could
not be verified. An earlier report of vehicles being flipped over
near Walnut Ridge (Lawrence County) was determined to have been
caused by those vehicles crashing after encountering significant
amounts of accumulated hail on the roadway.

$$

67


Hindsight is 20/20, but a regular tornado warning would have been justifiable. An overwarned TORE is better than an underwarned one, granted, but the bar to get one issued is typically so high that anything short of certainty usually doesn’t get the upgrade. Has there ever been in instance in the past in which a TORE was issued with no tornado on the ground?

Edit: I should add, the lesson here is that we need more radars. Terrain in this area is such that ground truth can be very difficult to accurately provide, even with chasers and emergency responders in the area. Since the nearest radar to the storm couldn’t see below 10,000 feet, benefit of the doubt had to be given, but this never would have happened in an area with a radar in close proximity.

I don't think I've ever seen a TORE with no confirmed tornado. But yeah I definitely agree with you we need more radars.

I'm not going to fully blame the NWS here although obviously the TORE was a very questionable decision. The big problem I see here are the bogus reports that were fed to them. Like I get it if someone accidentally thinks a scud cloud is a tornado but when you have like 9 reports of a tornado when there wasn't anything on the ground it makes me wonder what some of these people are looking at...
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#146 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Apr 16, 2022 11:25 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:It would be a Thunderstorm Emergency if there was no insane rotation with a possible TDS, some of the reflectivity was thought to be the debris ball. It was also in a radar hole as well, which did not help anything.

Also, there was confirmed tornado in Jonesboro after all.

And it's also be safer to be blamed for issuing an unneeded Tornado Emergency than downplaying it. Apparently, the Hail also influenced the warning as well, the Softball sized hail combined with 100 mph winds are about as destructive and as dangerous as a tornado.


Doesn’t look like there was a tornado:


327
NOUS44 KLZK 162236
PNSLZK
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-171045-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
536 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...Storm Survey Results From The Northeast Arkansas Supercell
That Occurred Friday, April 15, 2022...

A storm survey team from NWS Little Rock assessed damage across
portions of Fulton, Sharp and Lawrence Counties today. After
surveying the affected areas, it was determined that straight line
winds and large wind blown hail caused the damage.

Reports of tornadoes occurring across these areas yesterday could
not be verified. An earlier report of vehicles being flipped over
near Walnut Ridge (Lawrence County) was determined to have been
caused by those vehicles crashing after encountering significant
amounts of accumulated hail on the roadway.

$$

67


Hindsight is 20/20, but a regular tornado warning would have been justifiable. An overwarned TORE is better than an underwarned one, granted, but the bar to get one issued is typically so high that anything short of certainty usually doesn’t get the upgrade. Has there ever been in instance in the past in which a TORE was issued with no tornado on the ground?

Edit: I should add, the lesson here is that we need more radars. Terrain in this area is such that ground truth can be very difficult to accurately provide, even with chasers and emergency responders in the area. Since the nearest radar to the storm couldn’t see below 10,000 feet, benefit of the doubt had to be given, but this never would have happened in an area with a radar in close proximity.

I don't think I've ever seen a TORE with no confirmed tornado. But yeah I definitely agree with you we need more radars.

I'm not going to fully blame the NWS here although obviously the TORE was a very questionable decision. The big problem I see here are the bogus reports that were fed to them. Like I get it if someone accidentally thinks a scud cloud is a tornado but when you have like 9 reports of a tornado when there wasn't anything on the ground it makes me wonder what some of these people are looking at...


I remember a few years ago reporting hail to my local NWS office. They asked me to provide proof through a photo or video of the event. My only guess of why the office here issued a TORE was that it was dark and no one could safely take a photo or video of a confirmed tornado. However, given that they could not prove that there was one, I have to say that this was rather irresponsible. It would be ok to keep it as a tornado warning, but never upgrade to an emergency if there is no proof. You certainly do not want a "boy who cried 'wolf'" situation, especially given that this area is often hit by strong tornadoes.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#147 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:05 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:It would be a Thunderstorm Emergency if there was no insane rotation with a possible TDS, some of the reflectivity was thought to be the debris ball. It was also in a radar hole as well, which did not help anything.

Also, there was confirmed tornado in Jonesboro after all.

And it's also be safer to be blamed for issuing an unneeded Tornado Emergency than downplaying it. Apparently, the Hail also influenced the warning as well, the Softball sized hail combined with 100 mph winds are about as destructive and as dangerous as a tornado.


Doesn’t look like there was a tornado:


327
NOUS44 KLZK 162236
PNSLZK
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-171045-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
536 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...Storm Survey Results From The Northeast Arkansas Supercell
That Occurred Friday, April 15, 2022...

A storm survey team from NWS Little Rock assessed damage across
portions of Fulton, Sharp and Lawrence Counties today. After
surveying the affected areas, it was determined that straight line
winds and large wind blown hail caused the damage.

Reports of tornadoes occurring across these areas yesterday could
not be verified. An earlier report of vehicles being flipped over
near Walnut Ridge (Lawrence County) was determined to have been
caused by those vehicles crashing after encountering significant
amounts of accumulated hail on the roadway.

$$

67


Hindsight is 20/20, but a regular tornado warning would have been justifiable. An overwarned TORE is better than an underwarned one, granted, but the bar to get one issued is typically so high that anything short of certainty usually doesn’t get the upgrade. Has there ever been in instance in the past in which a TORE was issued with no tornado on the ground?

Edit: I should add, the lesson here is that we need more radars. Terrain in this area is such that ground truth can be very difficult to accurately provide, even with chasers and emergency responders in the area. Since the nearest radar to the storm couldn’t see below 10,000 feet, benefit of the doubt had to be given, but this never would have happened in an area with a radar in close proximity.

I don't think I've ever seen a TORE with no confirmed tornado. But yeah I definitely agree with you we need more radars.

I'm not going to fully blame the NWS here although obviously the TORE was a very questionable decision. The big problem I see here are the bogus reports that were fed to them. Like I get it if someone accidentally thinks a scud cloud is a tornado but when you have like 9 reports of a tornado when there wasn't anything on the ground it makes me wonder what some of these people are looking at...

There was a Tornado Emergency without a Tornado in Atlanta many years ago, like back in the 90s?
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#148 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:21 pm

This is a list of all tornado emergencies, which started in 1999. Theres not a lot of them, but there are a few N/A's so I'm assuming those were never confirmed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... mergencies
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#149 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:28 pm

5% tornado area added for tomorrow. The enhanced risk is right over areas currently in extreme drought so hopefully they can cash in with some good rain. There will probably be some massive hailers, at least initially while the storms are discrete, luckily this will be over a mostly rural area. Could actually end up as a solid chase day if the storms can remain discrete.

As for today, the HRRR has been pretty consistent in only showing one cell firing in the main slight risk area. As I said yesterday, I don't really see a whole lot happening, but if anything actually does form it could be pretty explosive.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#150 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:42 pm

Alright it's time to start talking about Friday 4/29. A ways out still, but models (especially the GFS) are starting to hint at a potential dryline setup for OK/KS and maybe parts of NE. It may have some capping concerns like we've been dealing with pretty much all year except yesterday, but overall it looks like the potential is there. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 15% area go up soon, maybe as early as tomorrow's extended outlook. A lot of time for this to change, so I'm not overly excited about it yet but this is one to watch for sure.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#151 Postby 869MB » Tue Apr 26, 2022 2:05 am

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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#152 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:00 am

6z GFS less capped at 0z but it's still there though it looks pretty breakable. I'm not sold on a big outbreak yet though. Too much model differences, and if the Euro solution verifies this will be a much tamer event. Not to mention the cap could be a problem as well. Moisture is ok but not great, would like to see dewpoints a bit higher for a bigger event. I like the current slight risk from SPC. For now, I think this could end up as a mostly isolated event, anything that does form could be pretty explosive.

Obviously still 4 days out and a lot can change so I'm not saying the higher end solutions are impossible but I'm not really seeing it just yet.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#153 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:20 pm

I see the HRRR is showing something at this range for a change. I'm actually kinda surprised it isn't showing anything further south. Cap looks very breakable all the way through 0z unlike some of the other models. I'm still thinking we don't end up with too much down here but if future runs keep looking similar I'm going to get a little more concerned.

I'm very concerned for KS though. It's been awhile since we've see a big tornado event up there, but this has some real potential to break that trend.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#154 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:47 am

A wind driven moderate risk is up for S NE/N KS for today, with a 10 hatched tornado risk for the entire enhanced/moderate risk areas. Big potential today if supercells can break the cap which I think they will in KS, not sure about OK.

Active pattern continues through the next week.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#155 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:30 am

All the CAMs except HRRR are firing supercells. My concern for OK is starting to go up now, although not sure how for south it can get. I still think KS could see a pretty big event and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15 hatched tor area added.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#156 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:47 am

Weather Dude wrote:All the CAMs except HRRR are firing supercells. My concern for OK is starting to go up now, although not sure how for south it can get. I still think KS could see a pretty big event and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15 hatched tor area added.

The Supercells are likely to be more isolated over Oklahoma (If they develop).
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#157 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:37 am

Weather Dude wrote:All the CAMs except HRRR are firing supercells. My concern for OK is starting to go up now, although not sure how for south it can get. I still think KS could see a pretty big event and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15 hatched tor area added.

Right on cue, 15 hatched added for KS
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#158 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:26 pm

Strong tornado in Andover, KS right now on Reed Timmer's stream. It took awhile, but the tornado threat in KS is finally getting going. Some other confirmed tors on other cells as well.
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#159 Postby Brent » Sat Apr 30, 2022 1:36 am

Weather Dude wrote:Strong tornado in Andover, KS right now on Reed Timmer's stream. It took awhile, but the tornado threat in KS is finally getting going. Some other confirmed tors on other cells as well.


:double: that appears to have been a pretty high end tornado. Eerily similar to the one in 1991(although so far and hopefully not on deaths) but that one also had the sirens fail and a mobile home park hit. Still I'm betting at least ef3
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Re: 2022 Severe Weather

#160 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:31 am

Brent wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Strong tornado in Andover, KS right now on Reed Timmer's stream. It took awhile, but the tornado threat in KS is finally getting going. Some other confirmed tors on other cells as well.


:double: that appears to have been a pretty high end tornado. Eerily similar to the one in 1991(although so far and hopefully not on deaths) but that one also had the sirens fail and a mobile home park hit. Still I'm betting at least ef3

I haven't seen many damage pics but the ones I have seen look pretty bad. I'm no damage expert but I'm thinking EF3 or low end EF4. This storm reminds me of Katie 2016 and Ashby 2020. Small but intense.

Monday is starting to look pretty concerning. Pretty strong wording from SPC already mentioning strong tornadoes possible. Cap shouldn't be much of an issue this time. Hopefully storms will go linear quickly because if they don't it might get ugly.
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