Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 708 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
...SEVERE STORMS AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY... DISCUSSION... Today and tonight...
Quite an active day in store for the region. Just walk outside and you can tell something in the weather will occur today. It has been very warm overnight with temperatures in the lower 70s through the night. A very potent southerly wind has prevailed with the 850mb low level jet really kicking in tonight. Sustained winds overnight have been 15-20kts with gusts around 25-30kts, even a brief near 40kt gust at JAN.
Much of the forecast thinking remains the same. The upper trough across the west will continue to track east and become negatively tilted with time. As this occurs, the 990mb surface low will track across the Mid-Mississippi Valley region and deepen. The line of storms currently ongoing over the DFW metroplex will continue to track east through the morning hours. This line is expected to reach the western part of our forecast are by around noon-1pm. Some of this line may be a little broken at first before intensifying and congealing more into a solid squall line/QLCS. This line is expected to quickly become severe as it encounters an airmass that will reach the low to mid 80s before it moves through. Widespread 1400-1600 J/kg of MUCAPE, 45-55kts of deep layer shear, 300-600 m2/s2 helicity all look to be in place to organize storms and produce a potent QLCS to move through the region today. Given the abundance of wind in place today, widespread damaging winds up to 80mph is expected and there remains potential for tornadoes as well, including a strong tornado. CAM guidance still indicates less potential for discrete storms to develop ahead of the line(which if one of these were to occur would be more supportive to produce a strong tornado in this environment). With sufficient mixing today, 20 degree Temperature/dewpoint spreads would support higher LCL heights, which could mitigate tornadogenesis but especially reduce the strong tornado risk today. However this risk remains non-zero given the sufficient shear and helicity in place and if a supercell were to develop along the line then the risk for a stronger tornado would exist. A moderate risk still is in place for the entire region. However, it is prudent to note that with this event we are not expecting the QLCS to produce quite the numbers of tornadoes as we saw last week, though certainly an embedded one is possible. We are most concerned about the damaging wind aspect of this line and this will certainly be widespread and likely to affect a larger portion of our population. Winds up to 80mph, in addition to the gradient wind ahead of the line, will pose risks of downed trees and powerlines and result in power outages.
Of additional concern is the gradient wind ahead of/outside of thunderstorms today. As mentioned, winds are already stout this morning and with additional mixing up to around 850mb which would suggest tapping into gusts around 45-50kts, and increasing low level jet, winds will only continue to get stronger ahead of the squall line through the afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph will be possible, but we could see some higher gusts of 55-60mph. Generally speaking, I feel really good about the gusts nearing 55mph, but am quite concerned about a few locations(likely more isolated than widespread) of reaching 60mph. That being said, the gradient winds will be as much of a concern ahead of the line and have gone ahead and issued a High Wind Warning to account for this. Once the line passes, winds will remain gusty but should return to gusts closer to 20-25mph through the evening into tonight. Gusts will diminish after midnight to around 15mph.
As the line moves through the region, there could be some locally heavy rainfall. However, given the quick movement to it and lack of indications of any training storms, the flooding risk is of lower concern and will continue to not mention this in the HWO or graphics.
Hold on to your hats, folks....it will be a windy, active weather day today! /28/
Weather Dude wrote:9 tornado warning on that line right now in LA. And it isn't even to the moderate risk yet.
Just my opinion, but I am rather underwhelmed with all the warnings on that line. Most of the couplets have little to no rotation on velocity so I am not sure what they are seeing. Unfortunately, I think I will not be underwhelmed with the couplets that will form later today.
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:11 pm
by Tireman4
000 FXUS64 KJAN 301813 AAA AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 113 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
...SEVERE STORMS AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...
.UPDATE... Updated for 18Z aviation discussion
&&
.AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: Southerly winds sustained 25-30kts with gusts of 40-50 kts are expected ahead of a line of TSRA. The TSRA could bring gusts to 75kts along with flight restrictions. The line of TSRA wl affect GLH by 19Z and continue east across the area this aftn into evng. The line is expected to be around the I-55 corridor around 22z and east of MS by 03Z. Lighter winds are expected once the TSRA move through. VFR conditions are expected to prevail away from TSRA activity until after 05Z when MVFR ceilings will be possible. VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide Thursday after 14Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Not much to add or change to the going forecast as expectations remain the same as prev forecasts. JAN 12z sounding has a large cap, but erosion of that cap through isentropic ascent and strong forcing will focus convection in the line as has been prev noted. I will add that the more S you go, the orientation of the deep shear favors some discrete updrafts, but the lower/mid level forcing is driving a linear mode. So, the trade of may be some potential for a broken line in spots. Ultimately, same threats hold with damaging winds, then some tornado threat.
Timing looks to be basically the same. The 12 hrrr is a tad slower, but when assessing the current line and it`s movement, the timing in our graphics remains very solid. Anticipate tornado watches to be added well in advance of the line with something out likely in the 11 to noon time window. /CME/
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:12 pm
by Tireman4
000 FXUS64 KBMX 301901 AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 201 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
.UPDATE... Midday Update and 18Z Aviation.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0153 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/
Today through Tonight.
A progressive line of thunderstorms has begun to take shape gaining intensity over Louisiana and quickly moving east at 45 to 50 mph. There will be several more hours before these storms begin to threaten our western counties, but non-thunderstorm gradient winds have already been increasing throughout the morning with gusts of 40- 45 mph measured at observation sites across Central Mississippi. A low-level jet of 50 kts was measured on the 12Z BMX RAOB this morning. Although slightly lower 850mb winds were measured on the 18Z BMX RAOB, we will see these low-level winds begin increasing again as the shortwave moves east. It still appears that boundary layer mixing may bring some of these higher winds to the surface as we continue through the afternoon with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible. The Wind Advisory will remain in effect for the entire area through tonight. Stronger portions of the low-level jet will pass across our northwest counties where some locally higher gusts above 50 mph may occur. The High Wind Warning will continue for those areas through the evening. These windy conditions will be capable of causing sporadic tree fall and power outages across any portions of the area, but increasingly probable in higher elevation areas as well as areas within the High Wind Warning.
The warm sector is slowly establishing, but our dewpoints still have some work to do. Low 60s are present across southwest Central AL with a gradient to upper 40s in the northeast while dewpoints have risen into the mid 60s in western Mississippi ahead of the line. Dewpoints should continue to slowly rise as strong, moist southerly flow provides a narrow corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. Although instability is expected to remain marginal, when combined with abundant wind energy characterized by a ~70kt LLJ and 60-70kts of progged eff. shear, it still appears likely that a significant primary threat of strong and damaging straight line winds will accompany the QLCS as it enters west Alabama late this afternoon/early evening. Winds will be especially maximized near line-embedded bowing segments where convective gusts up to 80 mph may occur. Additionally, large curved hodographs reflect eff. SRH of 400-450 m2/s2 which will surely lead to areas of rotation within the line. Given the limited range of instability, the ability for an updraft to sustain itself amongst such overpowering wind shear is still in question, but certainly appears that enough support will be in place for a risk of line embedded tornadoes. Storms will reach the MS/AL stateline as early as 5-6 PM then continue to quickly move east thereafter. The quick storm motions will limit the flood threat, and latest QPF has trended downwards. Nonetheless, accumulations of 1.5 to 2 inches will support an isolated flooding threat given the high water table caused by recent heavier rain events. As the line moves east this evening, instability will wane which should help to temper the intensity of storms, but some risk of damaging winds will continue for the eastern portions of Central AL until the line exits the area around 6-7 AM tomorrow morning.
Thursday.
Following the frontal passage, PoPs drop sharply as CAA takes hold and higher winds will subside. Expect temperatures to range from the mid 60s northwest to upper 70s southeast with cloud cover decreasing throughout the day. High pressure will begin building into the ArkLaTex and this will set up another period of generally calm conditions heading into the end of the week.
86
.LONG TERM... /Updated at 0349 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/
Friday through Tuesday
Look for zonal flow to return on Friday on the backside of the stalled front to our south. A shortwave will slide north of the area by Saturday morning. Models are a little more in agreement that there will be enough moisture for a least a few showers areawide through Saturday morning, then clearing to the east. The one difference from yesterday is the models are also focusing on the southern edge, where moisture may rise from along the frontal zone. Either way the bulk of the rain will stay south. A return to dry air again on Sunday with the next system working late Monday and through Tuesday. Will need to keep an eye on this system as we draw closer and showers and storms will be likely and rainfall totals could be quite high.
&&
.AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion.
Windy conditions will continue through much of this TAF period as a dynamic system moves into the Lower MS Valley and across Central AL later this evening through early tomorrow morning. Expect southerly sfc wind gusts up to 40-45 kts this afternoon with sustained winds around 15-20 kts. A line of storms will move west to east across the area tonight affecting each TAF site for roughly 3 to 4 hours. TEMPOs for TSRA will cover this activity. Low ceilings will develop tomorrow morning behind the cold frontal passage, but ceilings should begin rising again towards the end of this TAF period as dry air reenters the region.
86
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain chances increase this afternoon in the west and this evening in the east. Look for a line of strong to severe storms expected to move through the area overnight. 20 ft winds increase today, nearing 20 mph by mid day. Moisture returns to the area and expect minimum RH values in the 32-49 percent range. Widespread rainfall is expected tonight, with drier conditions returning by Friday. Minimum RH values Friday afternoon will be in the 28-35 percent range, with northerly 20ft winds at 4-7mph.
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Autauga...Bibb...Blount...Chilton...Dallas...Greene... Hale...Jefferson...Lowndes...Marengo...Perry...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Barbour...Bullock...Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee... Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...Elmore...Etowah...Lee...Macon... Montgomery...Pike...Randolph...Russell...Talladega...Tallapoosa.
High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Fayette...Lamar...Marion... Pickens...Winston.
Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for the following counties: Fayette...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Winston.
&&
$$
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:52 pm
by ElectricStorm
Tornado watch with 80/70 probs is up until 4am. Gonna be a long night down there
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:44 pm
by Iceresistance
First PDS Warning of the Night in Mississippi
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:02 pm
by ElectricStorm
Intense tornado PDS warned near Brent, AL. Similar area to the long tracker on 3/25/21. This storm is discrete and is moving generally towards a populated area if it holds on.
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:59 am
by Laurie
Can anyone give some weather info to come for Ft Walton Beach, Fl
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:03 pm
by Tireman4
00 FXUS61 KLWX 311420 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1020 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
.SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The focus of the near term will be on the potential for severe thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds and the potential for an isolated tornado and large hail. The main uncertainty for this event will be how much instability is realized, and if it is rooted within the boundary layer. 12Z CAMs continue to show an upward trend in potential instability this afternoon/evening along and east of I-81. If this instability comes to fruition, given the ample shear in place and height falls along the trough/cold front, strong to severe thunderstorms could be more widespread in nature. The LLJ will be pumping Gulf Moisture into the area at 55-70 kts at 850 mb and 40-60 kts at 925 mb. There is the potential for cellular storms ahead/along the cold front before they congeal into a linear feature that may include the potential for mesovorticies along the leading edge. Again, this all depends on if modeled instability is realized. Previous discussion follows...
Given the ample moisture, the flood threat is non-existent, mainly north and east of DC into northeast Maryland where CAMs suggest convergence along the cold front and a training aspect to the convection. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for the majority of the CWA with the 13Z update, but monitor spc.noaa.gov for the latest outlooks for any potential modifications. The potential for 40+ kt gusts does exist amidst the WAA sector mainly if any showers are able to bring down the wind. Previous discussion follows...
Deepening surface cyclone over the western Great Lks will move into western Quebec by tonight. Ahead of its associated cold front, a strong low-lvl flow will develop over the area with 925 and 850 mb winds increasing to 45kt and 65kt respectively by 18Z today. 500 mb heights will fall around 100 meters in 12 hours today leading to large scale ascent for upward vertical motion. Widespread showers and low-topped thunderstorms are expected beginning by 12Z across the Appalachian region and will spread east through the day, exiting the Chesapeake Bay by 03Z tonight. While instability will be limited (CAPE values generally 250-500 J/kg), magnitude of low-lvl winds is such that any showers or thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Even outside of showers, gradient winds are strong enough to support 40-45 mph winds. While deep layer shear is strong enough to support supercells, limited instability will likely limit tornado potential. Most CAMs indicate a linear mode of convection with a squall line moving through the area in the 18Z-02Z time frame. There will also be a low risk for flooding across northeast Maryland where models indicate some training convection possible. Showers will exit by 06Z but upslope rain/snow showers will persist into Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Deep upper level trough will cross the region Fri afternoon and keep unsettled wx through the day with plenty of clouds and isol-sct showers or virga and mountain snow showers. It will also be breezy/windy with gusts 35-40 mph. Ridge axis at the sfc and aloft builds over the area Fri night into Sat with tranquil conditions and diminishing winds. A weak northern stream disturbance will move across the area early on Sunday spreading more showers late Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to be pulling away from the Mid-Atlantic coastline Sunday morning. Guidance has trended a pinch more amplified with the trailing upper trough. If this trend were to continue, it could result in some more clouds or even lingering shower activity during the day. Regardless, breezy northwest winds and temperatures right around normal are expected during the daylight hours. Temperatures may drop a pinch below normal by early Monday morning as high pressure builds toward the area from the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, and slightly cooler air filters in.
Monday should feature lighter winds and similar daytime temperatures with less clouds and low to nil precipitation chances to start. Clouds likely increase later in the day ahead of a storm system developing over the Mississippi River Valley. This system likely brings a return to unsettled weather as it approaches the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Given the anticipated deep nature of the system and wind trajectories bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, some thunderstorms or periods of soaking rain are possible.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR cigs today through this evening along with showers and thunderstorms mainly in the 18Z-02Z time frame. Gradient winds up to around 35kt are expected this afternoon through early evening, but deeper showers or thunderstorms may be able to produce damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 kt. Showers end by 02Z tonight, then breezy conditions persist into Fri with gusts 25-30kt.
Lingering clouds and/or shower activity could lend to restrictions early Sunday before VFR returns through Monday. NW wind gusts to around 25 kt are possible Sunday, becoming lighter Sunday night into Monday morning, then southerly Monday afternoon and night.
&&
.MARINE... Gale conditions this afternoon through this evening with gusts to around 35 kt expected. Showers and thunderstorms may be capable of producing stronger winds over 50 kt which may require SMWs. Winds diminish overnight but SCA conditions will persist through the day Fri.
Northwesterly wind gusts to around 25 knots appear increasingly likely Sunday in the wake of low pressure pulling away from the coast. After perhaps some early morning rain, Sunday into Monday should be dry. Winds likely slacken a bit Sunday night into Monday morning before shifting to the south Monday afternoon. Winds may increase due to southerly channeling Monday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels will continue to rise in response to strengthening srly flow. Action stages are expected at Annapolis and Havre de Grace. Annapolis could come close to minor coastal flooding this evening and will need to be monitored more closely. PETSS guidance continue to be an outlier showing moderate coastal flooding at several sites. This guidance has had a notorious high bias all year long and continues to be disregarded at this time.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.
&&
$$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...LFR/CPB SHORT TERM...LFR/CPB LONG TERM...DHOF AVIATION...LFR/DHOF MARINE...LFR/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 8:24 am
by mcheer23
Surprised nobody made a post....day 4-5-6 slight risks have been issued.
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 6:33 pm
by Iceresistance
Weather Dude wrote:March: March 2021 was very active featuring 3 big outbreaks, 2 in Dixie Alley and the other in the plains. While I do think March 2022 could be fairly active, I don't expect it to be as active as last year.
That got really old . . .
over 250 Tornado Reports in March. Could have 200 confirmed in March 2022, which beats March 2017 (191)
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:20 pm
by ElectricStorm
Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:March: March 2021 was very active featuring 3 big outbreaks, 2 in Dixie Alley and the other in the plains. While I do think March 2022 could be fairly active, I don't expect it to be as active as last year.
That got really old . . .
over 250 Tornado Reports in March. Could have 200 confirmed in March 2022, which beats March 2017 (191)
Well at least I got the active part right
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 12:59 am
by ElectricStorm
Interesting news here, apparently there is a new EF scale coming soon. I found several more comments about it so it appears as though it's legit and not an April Fools joke. A revised EF scale needs to happen so badly so hopefully something good comes out of this. https://twitter.com/DaveDowneyWx/status ... 9305870340
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:07 pm
by Iceresistance
Weather Dude wrote:Interesting news here, apparently there is a new EF scale coming soon. I found several more comments about it so it appears as though it's legit and not an April Fools joke. A revised EF scale needs to happen so badly so hopefully something good comes out of this. https://twitter.com/DaveDowneyWx/status/1510014289305870340
Put it in "Twitter" mode so I can see what it is.
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:09 pm
by Iceresistance
Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:March: March 2021 was very active featuring 3 big outbreaks, 2 in Dixie Alley and the other in the plains. While I do think March 2022 could be fairly active, I don't expect it to be as active as last year.
That got really old . . .
over 250 Tornado Reports in March. Could have 200 confirmed in March 2022, which beats March 2017 (191)
Well at least I got the active part right
I saw recent News Media claiming that Tornado Alley is "Not living up to it's name at all" & even questioning it before April, but I have a really bad feeling about it.
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:54 am
by ElectricStorm
3 straight enhanced risk days for the southern US. I'm pretty interested in Wed. If we see good moisture return, instability and pre frontal cells it could be a big one.
Re: 2022 Severe Weather
Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:54 pm
by ElectricStorm
10 hatched tornado area added for tomorrow. Could end up being another moderate risk day.