STORM2K

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like it's gonna be quiet for a while. Winter slump is in full effect now with not much happening the next few weeks.

It do be like that sometimes...

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like there were several tornadoes this morning with some injuries reported in FL. Hope everyone ends up okay over there.

Weather Dude wrote:Slight risk event ongoing in MS/AL today. Multiple confirmed tornadoes ongoing and a potentially strong one on the ground right now. Hope everyone stays safe down there.

Weather Dude wrote:A rare special Day 3 outlook
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:A rare special Day 3 outlook
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif

A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:A rare special Day 3 outlook
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif

A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Yeah I'm not surprised at all. I just thought they would wait until the Day 2

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:
A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Yeah I'm not surprised at all. I just thought they would wait until the Day 2

If the model trends continue to have Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Northern & NE Texas (And if it also trends stronger Storms), an Enhanced risk may be needed on Day 2.

I don't see a Moderate unless the Models go absolutely crazy & stay that way.