Texas Spring 2022

[ElectricStorm]

On the very eastern edge of the severe thunderstorm watch here in the marginal risk. Hopefully we can get something decent but it needs to move out of here before morning

[ElectricStorm]

Ended up with a severe thunderstorm warning on the far southern edge of that line moving through. Marginal risk came in clutch. Now we'll see what we can get tomorrow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

May snowstorm this weekend in Denver. Had dreams of that as a kid.


And i'm in Costa Rica

[lukem]

May snowstorm this weekend in Denver. Had dreams of that as a kid.


And i'm in Costa Rica

I'm driving from Texas to Montana this weekend. Was planning on making it to Casper, Wyoming on Saturday. Pretty crazy that I've been dealing with 105 temps all week, and now I'm worried about getting caught in a snowstorm on my drive north!

[bubba hotep]

May snowstorm this weekend in Denver. Had dreams of that as a kid.


And i'm in Costa Rica

That's a major bummer! The Front Range blizzard last Spring was one of my all-time favorite weather experiences.

[rwfromkansas]

Models moving the heaviest rains east. Still widespread good rains though. For now.

[bubba hotep]

Got a nice thunderstorm this morning, that was unexpcted!

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

Much needed weather pattern change will unfold over the southern plains this weekend into next week.

High pressure that has been parked over Texas for much of the month of May will begin to flatten and break down over the next 48 hours as a trough of low pressure currently near the western coast of Mexico moves eastward and eventually across central Texas this weekend. Lowering mid level heights will finally weaken the strong capping inversion that has been in place over the region for weeks preventing much of any rainfall. At the surface a frontal boundary will move southward and then slow and eventually stall across SE TX late this weekend into much of next week. This combined of onshore flow of deep tropical moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico and a series of upper level disturbances moving across the region will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches look likely with isolated amounts upwards of 5-6 inches possible. Heavy rainfall will be possible starting on Sunday over the region with the slow moving frontal boundary over the area and likely the development of slow moving or training storms. Grounds are very dry with much of the southern portions of the area in drought, but heavy rainfall potential in a short period of time and expected numerous rounds of storms over several days will eventually begin to saturate the soils. While flooding is not currently expected for the weekend, this is the type of weather pattern that needs to be watched closely.

Weak frontal boundary will waffle and linger over the region into the middle of next week along with a weakness in the ridge axis which will keep rain chances going. Again slow moving storms will be possible along with heavy rainfall. This period may begin to feature a higher flash flood threat as soils becoming increasingly saturated.

This weather pattern looks to bring significant drought and fire relief to much of the state.

[A1A]

It looks like areas of Eastern and NE DFW could actually end up with above avg rainfall for Spring, esp. if this pans out. Some areas have already had 10"+ of rain so far this Spring.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTEPQnwWUAY2Wfl?format=png&name=medium

What is the link to get an update? Thanks.

[Ntxw]

Models moving the heaviest rains east. Still widespread good rains though. For now.

A concern I had was that models were being sensitive to the CCKW being over the Pacific on the good runs, SOI dip and then rise backs it up some. Now that it has passed they've toned it down some. Notice the GFS has given up on the gulf hurricanes from CAG.



Regardless the cooldown and some beneficial rainfall is much welcomed.

[DallasAg]

May snowstorm this weekend in Denver. Had dreams of that as a kid.


And i'm in Costa Rica

I'm driving from Texas to Montana this weekend. Was planning on making it to Casper, Wyoming on Saturday. Pretty crazy that I've been dealing with 105 temps all week, and now I'm worried about getting caught in a snowstorm on my drive north!

I'm driving from Dallas to Crested Butte on Saturday. Was really looking forward to escaping the heat and getting into "cooler" weather, but this might be a bit much. The good news is that this time of year the snow doesn't last long and hopefully won't be sticking to the roads.

[bubba hotep]

Models moving the heaviest rains east. Still widespread good rains though. For now.

A concern I had was that models were being sensitive to the CCKW being over the Pacific on the good runs, SOI dip and then rise backs it up some. Now that it has passed they've toned it down some. Notice the GFS has given up on the gulf hurricanes from CAG.

https://i.imgur.com/qQ1m6ff.png

Regardless the cooldown and some beneficial rainfall is much welcomed.

That also played a role in the model showing more rain over Texas. No storm in the Gulf allows for some moisture transport north from the CAG and also there is no widespread subsidence being thrown out from a powerful Gulf hurricane.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022051912/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

I was about to take note of that, goodness!

EDIT: I would like to have it saved in a GIF uploaded like Imgur please, it’s hotlinked.

[rwfromkansas]

Of course, after I said that, GFS is moving west again. Lol.

It is finally looking hopeful that we will get decent rains, even if it's half the current projections. Just waiting for it to change. Lol.

[South Texas Storms]

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022051912/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Yes please! Where do I sign up?

[Haris]

Euro really pushing the heavy rain south and east each run. Gonna remain reserved knowing our luck

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah, I'm in a hole under an inch on the Euro. Lol.

[captainbarbossa19]

After Wednesday, next week looks really nice for late May into early June. The Euro has lows well into the 60s for much of the state and highs only in the low to mid-80s. It looks like multiple days of cooler weather too. I will gladly take that after such a long period of above-normal temperatures!

[Edwards Limestone]

Euro really pushing the heavy rain south and east each run. Gonna remain reserved knowing our luck

Exactly. I'm in "show me" mode based on countless precip model busts/last minute shifts east over the past 6-8 months.

Hoping for the best, anticipating yet another underwhelming event. The background state will need to change before we get any true drought relief.