Texas Spring 2022

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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1861 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri May 20, 2022 5:39 pm

bubba hotep wrote:If the 18z 3k NAM is going to verify then we will need to see pretty rapid storm development over the next 30-45 min.


Yeah the 18z 3km NAM looks way too overzealous with convective development along the front tonight in north TX. Better storm chances arrive tomorrow, but it may largely be south and east of DFW.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1862 Postby bubba hotep » Fri May 20, 2022 5:46 pm

Front is well defined on sat with towers along it and one storm that has been pulsing. There also appears to be an area of subtle convergence out ahead of it with a nice cloud street within it, I would watch for storms to go off as the front approaches that dashed green line.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1863 Postby bubba hotep » Fri May 20, 2022 6:36 pm

Looks like first legit cell is going up out in Shackelford County and an attempt going up in Clay County.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1864 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 20, 2022 7:45 pm

Things are blooming a little slow but better late than never. Fingers crossed we get an inch by morning! Frontal boundary looks like it wants to fill in more now.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1865 Postby bubba hotep » Fri May 20, 2022 7:45 pm

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central and Eastern Oklahoma
North Texas

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 740 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
this evening within an unstable environment near a surface boundary
that extends southwest/northeast across the region. Large hail is
expected to be the primary hazard, although localized wind damage
could occur.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest
of Mineral Wells TX to 45 miles east northeast of Muskogee OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1866 Postby Iceresistance » Fri May 20, 2022 7:50 pm

bubba hotep wrote:https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0253_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central and Eastern Oklahoma
North Texas

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 740 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
this evening within an unstable environment near a surface boundary
that extends southwest/northeast across the region. Large hail is
expected to be the primary hazard, although localized wind damage
could occur.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest
of Mineral Wells TX to 45 miles east northeast of Muskogee OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

Yep! I’m under the watch, I’m more optimistic compared to the previous one, but not very much. I still expect storms to miss me to the south and east.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1867 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri May 20, 2022 8:13 pm

Those storms basically fell apart it appears?
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1868 Postby jasons2k » Fri May 20, 2022 8:41 pm

You would think with it snowing in Denver and this front pressing down in May - and May 20th mind you - if I were to write that up on a slip of paper with no charts and asked “what’s the forecast?” - almost any met would way “well there would probably be a massive severe weather outbreak and a squall line barreling through Texas”

And yet we have crumbs.

At least for now. Looks like a wet week ahead though. We need the rain.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1869 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 20, 2022 8:45 pm

jasons2k wrote:You would think with it snowing in Denver and this front pressing down in May - and May 20th mind you - if I were to write that up on a slip of paper with no charts and asked “what’s the forecast?” - almost any met would way “well there would probably be a massive severe weather outbreak and a squall line barreling through Texas”

And yet we have crumbs.

At least for now. Looks like a wet week ahead though. We need the rain.


We've had a lot of capping issues this season. The air coming out of the southwest/Mexico is extra warm and dry. Doesn't make or break an individual event but background state.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1870 Postby jasons2k » Fri May 20, 2022 9:54 pm

Pretty lame..

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1871 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 20, 2022 10:28 pm

Starting to doubt DFW sees much rain this weekend. Might have to wait closer to midweek for the shortwave but I'd bet we bust on the low side.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1872 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri May 20, 2022 10:59 pm



Watch for Texas looks canceled, Oklahoma only now.....
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1873 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri May 20, 2022 11:38 pm

Ugh. I hope things don’t fall apart for next week.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1874 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 21, 2022 8:45 am

Wish the cold front would get here..... just to the north and west of me looking at temps.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1875 Postby Brent » Sat May 21, 2022 9:49 am

57 degrees here :double: probably gonna struggle to see 60 this afternoon
Last edited by Brent on Sat May 21, 2022 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1876 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 21, 2022 9:56 am

Brent wrote:57 degrees here :double:


Boo!!!
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1877 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 21, 2022 9:59 am

Some storms popping across DFW out ahead of the front. Maybe a sign of a bit more favorable environment in place for storms today along the front? However, most hi-res guidance shows storms not firing along the front until later today once the front has cleared DFW.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1878 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 21, 2022 11:09 am

Cold front is through Decatur :cold:
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1879 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat May 21, 2022 11:27 am

Currently 64 at almost noon with a strong cool N wind.
Meanwhile at my parents place in CO..
Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1880 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 21, 2022 11:52 am

bubba hotep wrote:Cold front is through Decatur :cold:


It's crazy that 30ish minutes from me and 15 degrees cooler.

Outside just waiting now.
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