Texas Spring 2022

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1721 Postby Ntxw » Sat May 14, 2022 2:01 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Some power strain on the grid with plants tripping off per ERCOT. Heat wave is currently stressing the grid so they're urging to conserve this weekend and next week.

DFW currently in the running for top 5 hottest May on record. Probably got a decent shot at #1.


But I thought they fixed the power issues :spam:

Also considering it's the first heat wave of the summer and it's only May yeah not good

Back to weather for a minute still looking like there might be a decent front next weekend we'll see if it holds up


Any heat wave of any sort these days 95+ for most of the state strains the power grid. A huge reason is population growth out doing supply. Duration been there too a couple of weeks vs days.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1722 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat May 14, 2022 2:39 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles are in pretty good agreement that we are going to see a pattern flip and return to active weather for Texas.

From this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps-fast/2022051400/eps-fast_z500aMean_namer_1.png

to this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps-fast/2022051400/eps-fast_z500aMean_namer_6.png

Also, the 00z Euro Op was pretty nice to Texas

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022051400/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png


Pattern needs to change soon. I have had about 2 inches of rain since April 1 and less than 10 inches since January 1. That is about 10-15 inches below normal for my area. Everything outside is looking really stressed now and I am having problems with pests like armadillos and deer causing destruction so it feels like all of nature is attacking me right now. Lol


I’ve only had about 6” here since January 1st.


Yeah. I have had less than 8 since January 1. 2022 weather is absolutely boring so far except for the cooler weather we had earlier this winter. I think my ponds are going to reach record lows soon if it doesn't start raining in a few weeks. Of course, they did not exist in 2011.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1723 Postby Ntxw » Sat May 14, 2022 7:48 pm

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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1724 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat May 14, 2022 7:57 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles are in pretty good agreement that we are going to see a pattern flip and return to active weather for Texas.

From this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps-fast/2022051400/eps-fast_z500aMean_namer_1.png

to this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps-fast/2022051400/eps-fast_z500aMean_namer_6.png

Also, the 00z Euro Op was pretty nice to Texas

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022051400/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png


Pattern needs to change soon. I have had about 2 inches of rain since April 1 and less than 10 inches since January 1. That is about 10-15 inches below normal for my area. Everything outside is looking really stressed now and I am having problems with pests like armadillos and deer causing destruction so it feels like all of nature is attacking me right now. Lol


I’ve only had about 6” here since January 1st.

Same up here.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1725 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat May 14, 2022 11:45 pm

The pictures from NM are incredible and hard to believe. The fire is 1 mile from my family's place. Seeing the smoke columns make 13,000 ft peaks looks tiny is hard to wrap around. And the fact that primary containment lines are being set up 20 miles from the current head of the fire is also. Those mountains are rough and steep with very dense but weak forest covering them. Thankfully not many homes in that area. This fire could easily burn into July or August or at least until it gets to the Taos valley. Imagining the area from Las Vegas to Toas burnt is tough as that is where I have spent my whole life visiting a few times a year.
This is unlike any weather event I have ever monitored. It's such slow process but with moments of incredible intensity. In the end though an area the size of Dallas County will be scorched. Not that this is time for blame but why a prescribed burn was even considered in April in NM is unfathomable. An average day this time of year up there is 10% RH with winds gusting over 40 mph frequently. Prayers to homeowners, emergency responders and for healing of the incredible landscape and culture of the region.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1726 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 15, 2022 10:58 am

We need rainfall. We just lost a whole week where average rainfall is fairly high. We're going to lose this coming week also, the month is normally one of the wettest (for most it is) in the year. These are important weeks for averages. Seemingly keep having to say the same thing "if x happens." It has not been happening. The math says the last days of May needs 2-3" to make up the deficit we've collected this month alone.

Models need to move their rain forecast inside 5 days instead of pushing it 7-10 days out.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1727 Postby Cpv17 » Sun May 15, 2022 11:50 am

Ntxw wrote:We need rainfall. We just lost a whole week where average rainfall is fairly high. We're going to lose this coming week also, the month is normally one of the wettest (for most it is) in the year. These are important weeks for averages. Seemingly keep having to say the same thing "if x happens." It has not been happening. The math says the last days of May needs 2-3" to make up the deficit we've collected this month alone.

Models need to move their rain forecast inside 5 days instead of pushing it 7-10 days out.

https://i.imgur.com/uddwSvm.png


Exactly! This is why I’m not buying into anything past 5 days out. The Euro looks good for my area but it’s 7,8,9 days out.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1728 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun May 15, 2022 11:52 am

Gfs has been pretty consistent on that rain at about 6 days out now. Maybe another round about 8 days out.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1729 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 15, 2022 2:09 pm

Can we finally break negative for once? It's trying, CCKW is pushing for it. Something, anything.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1730 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 15, 2022 3:42 pm

Keep an eye on the convective evolution in Northern Oklahoma this afternoon. The 18z 3k NAM drives a pretty good MCS southward into N. Texas.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1731 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 15, 2022 5:49 pm

So far, trends seem to be favoring the 3k NAM over the HRRR. The HRRR is really struggling with the convection over Oklahoma.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1732 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 15, 2022 6:56 pm

Go Storms! MCS maintenance and CAPE are both centered N-S along I35. Will storms continue to build that way?

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1733 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun May 15, 2022 7:09 pm

Build west, young storm, build west.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1734 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 15, 2022 8:05 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Build west, young storm, build west.


Looking pretty healthy approaching the Red River.

SPC looking at a new watch for N. TX

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...South-central/southeast OK into north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

Valid 160015Z - 160145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of very
large hail, with a damaging wind threat potentially increasing
across southeast OK and spreading into north TX. New watch issuance
is likely into north TX.

DISCUSSION...Multiple cell mergers have occurred with the supercell
that earlier produced giant hail across east-central OK, with
additional development noted southwestward into south-central OK.
Strong instability (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) and effective shear of 40+
kt will continue to support organized storms, and very large hail
will remain possible this evening with any sustained discrete
supercells. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, with a 68 mph
gust recently noted at a OK Mesonet site in Hughes County.

Ongoing cell mergers may result in an upscale growing cluster, which
will likely move southward into parts of north TX, with a continued
hail and damaging wind threat through this evening. Watch issuance
is likely downstream into parts of north TX in order to cover this
threat.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/16/2022

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1735 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 15, 2022 8:09 pm

Wow... Massive plum coming off the fires in New Mexico and huge overshooting tops on cells approaching Red River

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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1736 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 15, 2022 8:13 pm

Hope it makes it! Front does provide lift to sustain. Come on!
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1737 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 15, 2022 8:15 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1738 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 15, 2022 8:58 pm

Some crazy pics coming out of OK this evening. Credit to @Negative_Tilt

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1739 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun May 15, 2022 9:37 pm

Severe thunderstorm warning for all of Collin and eastern portions of Denton through 1030. Fingers crossed this makes it down to the airport and Dallas proper
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Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1740 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun May 15, 2022 9:41 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Severe thunderstorm warning for all of Collin and eastern portions of Denton through 1030. Fingers crossed this makes it down to the airport and Dallas proper


Odd, so west of Denton they have not extended the warning?
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