Texas Spring 2022

[Ntxw]

Not sure about the whole state but looking at PDO, SOI, and ENSO data the La Ninas that featured cool summers generally did not behave like a La Nina. Years such as 2007, 2017 etc featured lingering effects of their dying Ninos. SOI in the summers for those years went down and in some cases into the negative territory despite the Ninas. Both cases had instances of weak -PDO that either went positive or from positive to negative.

So in short keep track of the PDO and SOI. The path of where they go tells us what will happen. A hot May doesn't promise a hot summer, but the indexes have a good correlation. Having a persistent drought is one piece but the other two says a lot as well.

The hot summer years are predominantly -PDO and very +SOI.

[Iceresistance]

In Oklahoma! Finally feels like home.

[Brent]

In Oklahoma! Finally feels like home.

Probably doesn't feel much different than Florida did

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

In Oklahoma! Finally feels like home.

Probably doesn't feel much different than Florida did

Made it home fine, it feels so nice being back home!

The only difference is that there is no Tropical Humidity to worry about, but the Heat was likely just waiting for me . . .

Florida had a Cold Front on the day we left, but it did nothing on the humidity part, just the Temperatures.

[Iceresistance]

My goodness, Mesoanalysis and soundings have CAPE over 6000 in Oklahoma, but there's no forcing near the extreme instability (I don't think I've ever seen CAPE this high before).

I'm afraid that this is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.

[Iceresistance]

Daily SOI is at 40 again . . .

[Ntxw]

Hopeful trough shown last weekend for this weekend is no longer a thing. Contrary it will likely be hotter this weekend than last weekend. Southwest winds next week = hot. 110 some places could reach in the western half of the state.

[South Texas Storms]

Hopeful trough shown last weekend for this weekend is no longer a thing. Contrary it will likely be hotter this weekend than last weekend. Southwest winds next week = hot. 110 some places could reach in the western half of the state.

But now there is another hopeful trough for late next week into next weekend. Let's hope that one can verify!

[Ntxw]

Hopeful trough shown last weekend for this weekend is no longer a thing. Contrary it will likely be hotter this weekend than last weekend. Southwest winds next week = hot. 110 some places could reach in the western half of the state.

But now there is another hopeful trough for late next week into next weekend. Let's hope that one can verify!

I hope !

It needs to come out though, if it hangs in the west and moves to the northern plains we just get raised heights and SW flow. SW flow doesn't help us that much but get hotter given the state of the Pacific. In any other year I'd be giddy about SW flow.

[ElectricStorm]

A chance perhaps

[Iceresistance]

Hopeful trough shown last weekend for this weekend is no longer a thing. Contrary it will likely be hotter this weekend than last weekend. Southwest winds next week = hot. 110 some places could reach in the western half of the state.

But now there is another hopeful trough for late next week into next weekend. Let's hope that one can verify!

The GEFS has increased mean Supercell Composite later this week into the next week (May 15th-22nd). This trough could slow down as it enters the Plains, which may trigger a Severe Weather Outbreak Sequence if it stalls at the right position with a SE Ridge.

(Normal Mean SCP is 1-2 when it's 5+ days out on the model, but you know that it's starting to pick up on something when it's higher than a 3 and either stays consistent or trends even higher.)

[Ntxw]

Cpc highlighting slight risk for rains week of 24th. Associated with mentioned trough above, fingers crossed!

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS delivers on the front and some decent rain. It also has a tropical system trapped down in the BOC with an incoming trough from the west lol

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS delivers on the front and some decent rain. It also has a tropical system trapped down in the BOC with an incoming trough from the west lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022051118/gfs_z500aNorm_us_65.png

If that system manages to go into Texas (Wanting it to be weaker), any drought chances will be exterminated by the possible TC, literally!

[cstrunk]

18z GFS delivers on the front and some decent rain. It also has a tropical system trapped down in the BOC with an incoming trough from the west lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022051118/gfs_z500aNorm_us_65.png

If that system manages to go into Texas (Wanting it to be weaker), any drought chances will be exterminated by the possible TC, literally!

I'll believe it when I see it...

[cycloneye]

Hot summer comming?

 https://twitter.com/JenCarfagno/status/1524743321465364481

[Ntxw]

Another vantage point.

[captainbarbossa19]

A lot of people are starting to say "2011 repeat," but I urge others to not be so extreme. Yes, it is dry, but 2011 was so bad that exceptional drought already covered around half the state by this time of year. That is twice the amount compared to now. Even as dry as it is, it is unlikely that this drought will be as extreme unless it continues into 2023.

[weatherdude1108]

Say what???