STORM2K

rwfromkansas wrote:Once again McKinney jackpots. Wow.

My fam in Fairview got like 2.5” or so. Collin county is a thunderstorm jackpot

SOI couldn't do it and give us a negative reading, shot back up to +20. I suspect the big cckw passing the Pacific caused the small dip and may be responsible for our beautiful weekend coming. It will be brief but 70s to 80 beats 90+. Closer to normal.

Ok, Ok... We're within 5 days of the cold front, I guess I'll start to believe it now!

In the mean time, I'm going to have to start up my sprinklers tonight.

I hope the GFS is correct about good rains.

It pushes the hottest temps to far west TX as well, where they should be. Lol.

Euro much drier from last night at least.

From Jeff Lindner:

Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be parked over Texas into late this week with continued very warm/near record temperatures.

Upper and mid level ridge axis that has been over Texas for the last 8-12 days will remain in place into late week before starting to flatten some with the approach of a trough across the central portion of the nation. Stalled omega block upper air pattern of late is breaking down and this will help transition toward a more progressive storm track across the nation. Given the trough moving into the central portion of the nation late this week, a weak cool front will slide southward into Texas by this weekend. With mid level heights decreasing, capping in the mid levels will subside some and a period of active weather is possible by this weekend over SE TX.

Southeasterly winds will begin to increase by Thursday and Friday and moisture levels will finally start to increase after several days of “relatively dry conditions” over the region. Surface frontal boundary and outflow boundaries from storms likely to develop over central and north Texas on Friday will approach our area Friday night and showers and thunderstorms will be possible north of I-10 during the evening hours. Frontal boundary looks likely to move into the region and potentially stall over the area Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Will need to see how far south the front actually makes it this weekend, but current models indicate at least into portions of SE TX and with the weakening of the ridge axis aloft conditions either from the front or the seabreeze should be favorable for showers and thunderstorms.

While not currently suggested in any of the models, slow moving or stalled boundaries this time of year within a moist air mass should always raise the heavy rainfall flags with the potential for slow moving or training convection. This will be something to watch over the next few days to see if models become more aggressive with rainfall amounts.

Tropics:
There has been a bunch of social media posts recently showing a tropical system on the GFS model in the western Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico for next week. The GFS is notorious for showing development this time of year in this region as tropical waves/moisture interact with a developing central American gyre. Most models do show a large area of unsettled weather extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche from this weekend into next week. If and when any sort of defined surface circulation may develop and where remains highly uncertain due to land interaction with central America and the large sprawling nature of the central American gyre. If anything were to actually develop it would be slow.

Cpc highlighting chance of excessive heat last days of the month. Weekend cold blast will last a few days, but then it is 1 step forward, 2 steps back. +SOI again tells us more heat on the horizon.

Ntxw wrote:Cpc highlighting chance of excessive heat last days of the month. Weekend cold blast will last a few days, but then it is 1 step forward, 2 steps back. +SOI again tells us more heat on the horizon.

https://i.imgur.com/rI4r5he.png

In my area, the models have been performing very poorly with afternoon highs. I think the hottest it has been is 93, but models last week were indicating temps closer to 100. 93 is above-normal temperature-wise this time of year, but we have not had any excessive heat warnings yet this month. Also, I really don't know what the CPC is seeing because I don't see any crazy ridging developing on models and they are actually showing cooler temperatures compared to this week's. The strongest ridging looks to develop over the Desert Southwest next week.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Cpc highlighting chance of excessive heat last days of the month. Weekend cold blast will last a few days, but then it is 1 step forward, 2 steps back. +SOI again tells us more heat on the horizon.

https://i.imgur.com/rI4r5he.png

In my area, the models have been performing very poorly with afternoon highs. I think the hottest it has been is 93, but models last week were indicating temps closer to 100. 93 is above-normal temperature-wise this time of year, but we have not had any excessive heat warnings yet this month. Also, I really don't know what the CPC is seeing because I don't see any crazy ridging developing on models and they are actually showing cooler temperatures compared to this week's. The strongest ridging looks to develop over the Desert Southwest next week.

Higher dewpoints keeps it lower but it's still running much above normal. These temps are normal in late June and July but not for May at the current duration. So if the forecast is consistently 90+ and heat index 95+ is a good call. Most locations will be running a top 5 warmest May. Most stations are +5F for the month. +3 is considered well above normal any month, we shouldn't normalize what isn't normal just because it isn't record breaking heat. Thus far verification cpc has done a good job highlighting the times/regions for heat. We give flack to the cpc for bad calls in the past but got to give them credit when it is good also.

No doubt we get 3-4 days near normal and even below but ensembles are trending back to ridging after. It's definitely not the May we were asking for in April.

The latest operational and ensemble model guidance still looks good for us during the last 10 days of this month. It's becoming increasingly likely that we enter back into a wet pattern during this time. Bring it on!

Back to Texas again.lol

Probably not within range of the NHC forecasts yet to get their attention. Sea temps warm, but lots of shear. Would be the earliest Texas landfalling hurricane since records began. I think I heard June 1967 was the earliest Texas landfall(?). Not sure.

weatherdude1108 wrote:Back to Texas again.lol

Probably not within range of the NHC forecasts yet to get their attention. Sea temps warm, but lots of shear. Would be the earliest Texas landfalling hurricane since records began. I think I heard June 1967 was the earliest Texas landfall(?). Not sure.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022051212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_64.png

That run is from 5 days ago. The GFS continues to be an outlier in developing a TC in the northwest Caribbean later this month. It's solution is quite unlikely.

I wonder how far south this line in KS can make it. The marginal risk is just north of me but we should get the remnants of this line. Hopefully we can get some good rain, since Friday's event will probably be east of me.

Some pretty good rain totals on WPC's 3-7 day QPF maps for much of Texas. Hope everyone gets to cash in.

ElectricStorm wrote:I wonder how far south this line in KS can make it. The marginal risk is just north of me but we should get the remnants of this line. Hopefully we can get some good rain, since Friday's event will probably be east of me.

Next week is looking a LOT better compared to this week.

(New username? It’s going to take a while for me to get used to it. Lol)

12Z GFS with it's wettest run yet for CTX with a swath of 7-10 inch totals from San Antonio to Austin over the next 7 days.

cstrunk wrote:Some pretty good rain totals on WPC's 3-7 day QPF maps for much of Texas. Hope everyone gets to cash in.

Yeah I'm not sure what models WeatherUnderground use to formulate their forecasts, but they've upped rainfall for Dallas quite a bit since midday yesterday. Showing total of 2.4" between Saturday and Tuesday. Would be great if it verifies.

Next week is starting to look really stormy.In addition to heavy rainfall there could be multiple days of severe weather in the state next week.

Euro starting to trend toward GFS with heavier rains, so hopefully that's right. Starting to be a bit more optimistic about next week so far. Cautiously.

rwfromkansas wrote:Euro starting to trend toward GFS with heavier rains, so hopefully that's right. Starting to be a bit more optimistic about next week so far. Cautiously.

This is the right approach. Stay cautiously optimistic folks.

Cpv17 wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Euro starting to trend toward GFS with heavier rains, so hopefully that's right. Starting to be a bit more optimistic about next week so far. Cautiously.

This is the right approach. Stay cautiously optimistic folks.

Yep, the time frame continues to move closer, with decent model agreement. Thankfully it looks like our early summer heat wave will be ending soon (at least temporarily)!