STORM2K

Nice MCS moving across southeast TX early this morning. Looks like many areas should get at least 1 inch from this round, which is very much appreciated!

Happy Fall everyone.

62 here this morning, and 0.75" of rain last night!

Very nice after week of lows in the 70s and high near 100 with no rain.

WPC moved heaviest rain east again. But DFW still in 3-4 inch range. As long as it stays steady, I’m happy. Not sure the last time I got more than 2 inches of rain. Based on GFS and EURO, DFW may get less than this. It’s shifting south.

I’m sure nobody is surprised. But, GFS says west central TX will get almost nothing. And I’m close to a bust here with maybe an inch-2.

Woke-up to 2.44” overnight! I’ll take it

rwfromkansas wrote:WPC moved heaviest rain east again. But DFW still in 3-4 inch range. As long as it stays steady, I’m happy. Not sure the last time I got more than 2 inches of rain. Based on GFS and EURO, DFW may get less than this. It’s shifting south.

Seemed like a lock given the overnight guidance. However, the 12z hi-res guidance pulls things back West for the next 48-72 hrs vs the WPC forecast. It's hard to predict precipitation placement when it is primarily driven by convective processes.

I'm expecting some rain this week but will guess lower end 1-2" west of I-45. No doubt someone will get higher totals locally but grand scheme more of the same. This weekend was supposed to provide some with a good change in airmass in May that yielded basically nothing up here and to the west. That says something.

We have been fighting mid level dry air since March. Even blasting front was an uphill climb contending with it. This is the real story of this wet season.

This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.



The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.

bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.

Man I hope EWX is right with their rainfall total forecast for south central TX. But like Ntxw has said all spring, I would take the under on those due to the continued La Nina and unfavorable background state for TX rainfall.

bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.

Not gonna lie those totals shocked me. I was thinking more 1-3

Haris wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.

Not gonna lie those totals shocked me. I was thinking more 1-3

Same here. My most bullish forecast calls for widespread 2-4 inches for south central TX. 1-3 inches seems reasonable though and I would still be quite happy with that.

South Texas Storms wrote:

Haris wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.

Not gonna lie those totals shocked me. I was thinking more 1-3

Same here. My most bullish forecast calls for widespread 2-4 inches for south central TX. 1-3 inches seems reasonable though and I would still be quite happy with that.

I got a quarter inch last night and 15 miles to my east in Wharton they got 4.5”. I’m hoping for a big event here Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday is looking pretty interesting for a severe weather event in TX. Just a small slight risk for now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to enhanced at some point for wind potential, especially if the 48hr HRRR is correct, which is always up in the air at this range. Either way, should be a great week for rain across a good portion of the southern plains.

South Texas Storms wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.

Man I hope EWX is right with their rainfall total forecast for south central TX. But like Ntxw has said all spring, I would take the under on those due to the continued La Nina and unfavorable background state for TX rainfall.

I'm not really buying that EWX forecast tbh. Storms over the weekend seemed outflow-dominant and full of dry air (although a select few out west did cash in with 1-2 inches).

The Euro has been pretty stubborn over the past few days that the higher precip totals would be E and NE of us and that seems reasonable to me. Showing more like 0.75-1.5 inches for the same areas that EWX is showing 3-4 inches out in the Hill Country.

I guess we'll see but it seems like they are def leaning on the high res models.

It's going to rain the next three days for sure, this I am certain.

My sprinklers ran overnight and did not stop from the fact the forecast is calling for rain........

Edwards Limestone wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.

Man I hope EWX is right with their rainfall total forecast for south central TX. But like Ntxw has said all spring, I would take the under on those due to the continued La Nina and unfavorable background state for TX rainfall.

I'm not really buying that EWX forecast tbh. Storms over the weekend seemed outflow-dominant and full of dry air (although a select few out west did cash in with 1-2 inches).

The Euro has been pretty stubborn over the past few days that the higher precip totals would be E and NE of us and that seems reasonable to me. Showing more like 0.75-1.5 inches for the same areas that EWX is showing 3-4 inches out in the Hill Country.

I guess we'll see but it seems like they are def leaning on the high res models.

To be fair EWX and FWD forecast maps I think we're tied to WPC qpf which since then has come down some. 1 to 2.5" or so.

I think little activity today, a few rounds of storms tomorrow will be the bulk of it. Cloudy Weds with lingering showers in Oklahoma/E and SE Tx.

bubba hotep wrote:https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2022052312/060/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Interesting...looks like the NAM could be suggesting some classic west-to-east oriented Edwards/Balcones escarpment precip training.

WRF and FV3 look interesting for southeast Texas.