Texas Summer 2022

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#361 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:42 pm

Brent wrote:EPS is even more bullish today on something in the Gulf around 4th of July. Some very significant members


Some members take the system all the way to Texas. This is so far out and nothing has even developed yet, but it is certainly something to watch.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#362 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:44 pm

Some storms just meandering around out there this afternoon.

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#363 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:13 am

I was at hurricane Harbor yesterday at Oklahoma City, reached 100°F for the first time since 2020.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#364 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:08 pm

It is becoming more likely that the Texas coast may be dealing with a tropical depression/weak tropical storm this upcoming week.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#365 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:12 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:It is becoming more likely that the Texas coast may be dealing with a tropical depression/weak tropical storm this upcoming week.


12z models trending that way.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#366 Postby Brent » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:41 pm

100 here :spam: first time in June in 9 years :spam:

This Sunday front can't get here fast enough
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#367 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:23 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:It is becoming more likely that the Texas coast may be dealing with a tropical depression/weak tropical storm this upcoming week.


Bring it!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#368 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:39 pm

We need it! Rooting for a weak slow moving NW Gulf low. Next week is basically a miracle compared to what's been.

But you know it won't last, analogs and CPC already prepping for July. Forecast is for it to begin as May and June has been. More chances for heat ugh.

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#369 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:We need it! Rooting for a weak slow moving NW Gulf low. Next week is basically a miracle compared to what's been.

But you know it won't last, analogs and CPC already prepping for July. Forecast is for it to begin as May and June has been. More chances for heat ugh.

https://i.imgur.com/6ZiOUeU.png


:spam: Don't spoil the fun before the suck.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#370 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:53 am

Temps have dropped to a bone chilling 85 degrees this morning at DFW. Kidding aside, Monday and Tuesday will feel quite nice with some low 90s. A small respite.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#371 Postby wxman22 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:56 am

Image

Image

2. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would
likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#372 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:12 am

Today will be DFW's 8th 100F reading matching the total for all of last year in a single month. Tomorrow if the forecast holds should be the 9th. That's where it will likely hold off given the forecast which will place June in 3rd all time most 100F days.

DFW airport had some string of luck the past two weeks. There were many 99F days where if it were less than a degree warmer in theory could have been 14 days and set a new record.

Extended analogs suggest increased risk of above normal through July, I'm going to make a guess DFW may see >20 days of 100F for the month. Since a similar ridging pattern as June in July yields higher temps.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#373 Postby Texoz » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:Today will be DFW's 8th 100F reading matching the total for all of last year in a single month. Tomorrow if the forecast holds should be the 9th. That's where it will likely hold off given the forecast which will place June in 3rd all time most 100F days.

DFW airport had some string of luck the past two weeks. There were many 99F days where if it were less than a degree warmer in theory could have been 14 days and set a new record.

Extended analogs suggest increased risk of above normal through July, I'm going to make a guess DFW may see >20 days of 100F for the month. Since a similar ridging pattern as June in July yields higher temps.


Today marks the 20th day for Austin Mabry to be at or above 100. We're on track to have the hottest June on record. Current average is 88.0 degrees. Forecast rain this week will reduce that a few tenths, but the prior record is 87.4 (2008) so this June will likely still beat that.
CORRECTION: If forecast temps (from the rain) are accurate, then Austin Mabry drops down to 84.5 to finish June.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#374 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:22 pm

Texoz wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Today will be DFW's 8th 100F reading matching the total for all of last year in a single month. Tomorrow if the forecast holds should be the 9th. That's where it will likely hold off given the forecast which will place June in 3rd all time most 100F days.

DFW airport had some string of luck the past two weeks. There were many 99F days where if it were less than a degree warmer in theory could have been 14 days and set a new record.

Extended analogs suggest increased risk of above normal through July, I'm going to make a guess DFW may see >20 days of 100F for the month. Since a similar ridging pattern as June in July yields higher temps.


Today marks the 20th day for Austin Mabry to be at or above 100. We're on track to have the hottest June on record. Current average is 88.0 degrees. Forecast rain this week will reduce that a few tenths, but the prior record is 87.4 (2008) so this June will likely still beat that.
CORRECTION: If forecast temps (from the rain) are accurate, then Austin Mabry drops down to 84.5 to finish June.


I've been seeing a lot of 2008 and 1961 records being brought up lately. Both those years were not good for Texas concerning the tropics.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#375 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:25 am

wxman22 wrote:https://i.ibb.co/fn5FjRc/Screenshot-2022-06-25-at-08-35-38-Models-GFS-Pivotal-Weather.png

https://i.ibb.co/ZGhWkRQ/twvo-atl-5d2.png

2. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would
likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#376 Postby Texoz » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:48 am

bubba hotep wrote:
wxman22 wrote:https://i.ibb.co/fn5FjRc/Screenshot-2022-06-25-at-08-35-38-Models-GFS-Pivotal-Weather.png

https://i.ibb.co/ZGhWkRQ/twvo-atl-5d2.png

2. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would
likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022062600/198/qpf_acc.us_sc.png


Wow. That's concerning. Would be a lot better if it was spread out and 100 miles to the west/northwest.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#377 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:27 am

Texoz wrote:


Wow. That's concerning. Would be a lot better if it was spread out and 100 miles to the west/northwest.


It could rain 10” here and it wouldn’t even be a problem. That’s how dry it is. Bring it!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#378 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:04 am

Texoz wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Today will be DFW's 8th 100F reading matching the total for all of last year in a single month. Tomorrow if the forecast holds should be the 9th. That's where it will likely hold off given the forecast which will place June in 3rd all time most 100F days.

DFW airport had some string of luck the past two weeks. There were many 99F days where if it were less than a degree warmer in theory could have been 14 days and set a new record.

Extended analogs suggest increased risk of above normal through July, I'm going to make a guess DFW may see >20 days of 100F for the month. Since a similar ridging pattern as June in July yields higher temps.


Today marks the 20th day for Austin Mabry to be at or above 100. We're on track to have the hottest June on record. Current average is 88.0 degrees. Forecast rain this week will reduce that a few tenths, but the prior record is 87.4 (2008) so this June will likely still beat that.
CORRECTION: If forecast temps (from the rain) are accurate, then Austin Mabry drops down to 84.5 to finish June.


With the current remaining forecast for Mabry from the NWS the average would come out 87.5 for the entire monthly table. That's looking at low to mid 90s. If the forecast were more optimistic and upper 80s with rain would yield something closer to 87F.

I also need to make a correction DFW if 100F today would be 4th, the top 2 are tied.

Cold front! Or wind shift however you want to call it. Low to mid 90s is about normal if not slightly below.

Image
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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#379 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:53 am

This 0 rain mess is getting out of hand. Here my yard as of this morning. My pastures that support livestock look even worse. Something has got to change and quick.
Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#380 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:07 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:This 0 rain mess is getting out of hand. Here my yard as of this morning. My pastures that support livestock look even worse. Something has got to change and quick.
https://i.ibb.co/yN4DRWK/15-A5-DD09-98-B6-4-A1-E-A373-0-C65-B9-E25-C81.jpg


I feel for you guys. I was driving west for work this past week and it looks really bad. For us in the cities we can always look at it from a it could be worse standpoint but for those living off the land it is already the worst, what many don't understand.

I'm afraid long term there isn't much improvement if you take all into account until this PDO and Nina decouples.
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