Texas Summer 2022

[weatherdude1108]

It has trended south, my goodness.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-8.17.2022-at-12-PM.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-8.17.2022-at-12-PM.gif

That's a drought denter all the way to the SA metro! Bring it!! Every little bit helps!

[bubba hotep]

93F in Gainesville, TX and about an hour up the road in Pauls Valley, OK it's 77F.

[Iceresistance]

Only made it up to 78°F today, that's cold compared to the 103°F Yesterday.

But I LOVE IT!

[Brent]

Only made it up to 78°F today, that's cold compared to the 103°F Yesterday.

But I LOVE IT!

Sun never came out here. What a day after yesterday(and well most days in the last 2 months) Very fall like

[gpsnowman]

I'm near the south end of the big airport and can see some impressive lightning and tall clouds slowly moving up from the south. The last of the daylight showed huge cloud tops earlier. Hope it makes it.

[cstrunk]

Made it to 99F in Longview before nearby storms cooled us off around lunch. Looked good for rain but it went POOF. Did manage 0.02" at my house.

[gpsnowman]

I'm near the south end of the big airport and can see some impressive lightning and tall clouds slowly moving up from the south. The last of the daylight showed huge cloud tops earlier. Hope it makes it.

Dumping rain at 360 and Trinity. Big fat heavy drops. Beautiful!!!!! Getting super heavy now. Airport about to get hammered.

[Ntxw]

I'm near the south end of the big airport and can see some impressive lightning and tall clouds slowly moving up from the south. The last of the daylight showed huge cloud tops earlier. Hope it makes it.

Dumping rain at 360 and Trinity. Big fat heavy drops. Beautiful!!!!! Getting super heavy now. Airport about to get hammered.

Many areas are getting 1+ inches very quickly, glorious!

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI just crashed -32. Wetter pattern has support.

[Cpv17]

Daily SOI just crashed -32. Wetter pattern has support.

Made my day!

[Iceresistance]

DFW is now expecting 5-8 inches of rain per WPC, this would be a flooding disaster.

[cstrunk]

DFW is now expecting 5-8 inches of rain per WPC, this would be a flooding disaster.

I don't know about disaster. It's supposed to fall over several days. With as dry as it's been I don't think it will be a huge issue.

With that said, the 5"+ contour on the 7 day QPF forecast covers a large portion of Texas. Wow.

[jasons2k]

SE Texas weather update from local met Jeff Lindner:

Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible this afternoon over the area.

Wet weather pattern in place through much of next week…with drought breaking rainfall possible over a large portion of TX

This afternoon/evening:
Weak frontal boundary is currently sagging into N TX and will slowly move southward today reaching a line from near Tyler to Madisonville to Georgetown by this afternoon. Air mass south of this boundary is already moist and unstable and with heating will become highly charged with energy by early to mid afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the frontal boundary and move southward along with their associated outflow boundaries into air mass temperatures likely in the mid to upper 90’s. At the same time the seabreeze and baybreeze will move northward away from the coast and Galveston Bay and at some point these boundaries will collide over the area. Forecast soundings are showing a favorable profile for both heavy rainfall and downburst winds with the storms this afternoon. The setup is fairly similar to last Wednesday. High resolution models are showing various solutions on where the greatest storm threat will be this afternoon with some hints that areas west of I-45 and south of I-10 may have the highest chances of more widespread and consolidated activity. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible under the stronger storms leading to street flooding along with gusty winds of 40-55mph.

Storms may continue well into the evening hours with the actual weak front remaining north of Hwy 105 tonight and disturbances moving across the area in the flow aloft. High resolution guidance has continued to show activity lingering into the 11pm-1am timeframe tonight. Weak front will drop toward the coast on Friday, but it remains to be seen how “worked” over the local air mass is from the activity today. Guidance is attempting to develop storms along the boundary again generally south of I-10, but a lot hinges on if the air mass can recover and just how widespread activity becomes later today. Storms could be slow moving on Friday which increases the heavy rainfall threat with high moisture values remaining in place.

Next Week:
Upper air pattern continues to support an extended period of widespread rainfall across much of TX into next week with yet another frontal system sagging into and stalling across the state and tropical moisture moving northward off the Gulf. Numerous periods of showers and thunderstorms will be likely with some areas receiving significant rainfall over the next 7 days. In fact rainfall amounts over a large portion of TX may approach the needed amounts to make a large dent in the ongoing drought. Given the tropical moisture that will be in place, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible, but where and when any flooding concerns become a reality is uncertain.

Gulf:
Tropical wave and mid level circulation that was over the far SW Caribbean Sea yesterday has moved inland over Belize and the southern Yucatan overnight. Vigorous deep convection has developed with this feature over northern Belize into the southern Yucatan overnight and this morning and overall the satellite appearance looks fairly impressive IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits Belize radar out of Philip Goldson Airport does not indicate any low level circulation associated with the mid level circulation and surface observations confirm this. With that said, this feature is highly active with convection, moreso than forecast models have been suggesting and yet most show little to no development of this feature as it moves over the southern Gulf starting tomorrow and then NW over the weekend. NHC has slightly increased the development probabilities to 30% over the next 5 days over the southwest Gulf. We shall see where this feature moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche on Friday and if convection maintains its current cycle and development chances increase some. For now, just an increase in moisture for this weekend with the wave axis moving inland somewhere in NE MX or S TX, but I am not convinced the models are handling this feature well so it should be watched over the next few days once over the southern Gulf.

[HockeyTx82]

DFW is now expecting 5-8 inches of rain per WPC, this would be a flooding disaster.

That's a pretty bold statement. I would think localized flooding will occur. Disaster level, seems like a stretch.

[Ntxw]

FWIW DFW's 100F days has now stalled at 47. I'm going to end up short on my guess for August with the last week-week and half likely ending up below normal temps and above precip with no realistic shot at another 100. Now the real question is...have we seen the last 100F day of 2022? It's possible given the Nino-esque mid latitude pattern setting up.

[Clearcloudz]

12z ecmwf yesterday



00Z ecmwf last night



Some consistency is developing on the EURO for some very significant drought busting rainfall later next week. Control run and ensembles are agreeing with this idea as well.

[Ntxw]

12z ecmwf yesterday

https://i.imgur.com/RWdpcJD.png

00Z ecmwf last night

https://i.imgur.com/3kIQH7K.png

Some consistency is developing on the EURO for some very significant drought busting rainfall later next week. Control run and ensembles are agreeing with this idea as well.

It will make a dent for sure. Most areas need 15-25" to get back on track. Quite impressed with the ensembles for sniffing out the upper ridge-trough regime shift over the Aleutians two weeks ago!

[Brent]

FWIW DFW's 100F days has now stalled at 47. I'm going to end up short on my guess for August with the last week-week and half likely ending up below normal temps and above precip with no realistic shot at another 100. Now the real question is...have we seen the last 100F day of 2022? It's possible given the Nino-esque mid latitude pattern setting up.

I'm really thinking unless the hurricanes start going east of us we might be done

Of course getting a hurricane this year is the first issue with that it's been an extremely quiet start

[Ntxw]

FWIW DFW's 100F days has now stalled at 47. I'm going to end up short on my guess for August with the last week-week and half likely ending up below normal temps and above precip with no realistic shot at another 100. Now the real question is...have we seen the last 100F day of 2022? It's possible given the Nino-esque mid latitude pattern setting up.

I'm really thinking unless the hurricanes start going east of us we might be done

Of course getting a hurricane this year is the first issue with that it's been an extremely quiet start

Yeah the recurve or eastern canes can shift the 500mb pattern and pull the ridge back. But for now we have a pseudo Nino-like North Pacific wave-breaking going on.

[Iceresistance]

Now we may have this to worry about, it's looking very impressive over the Yucatán and could head towards Southern Texas if it keeps a northward component.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/89844104.gif