Texas Summer 2022

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Brent
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1361 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:44 pm

The 0z GFS would be horrible :eek: :double: similar to Harvey

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1362 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:46 pm

Brent wrote:The 0z GFS would be horrible :eek: :double: similar to Harvey

https://i.ibb.co/68KCmbS/unknown-14.png


Closer to Carla in 1961, look at the size of the wind field!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1363 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:13 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:
Yeah, I can see that. But we need the moisture so bad here in central Texas. My eyes were drawn to the blues and greens.


Oh for sure! It’s beautiful to see that :D


I realized I mistakenly put the 6 to 10 day precip map twice. :oops:
I just changed it to 8 to 14. :wink:


It’s all good! I knew what you meant. I wasn’t gonna say anything lol
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1364 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Aug 26, 2022 1:42 pm

The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1365 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 26, 2022 3:07 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png


The stuff in the gulf looks bogus to me from the GFS. No doubt a surge of moisture will come but it has been modelcaning South American spinups all week from the East coast to MX.

Now the waves off Africa are real on the Euro and more in line with what is out there.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1366 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 26, 2022 4:21 pm

Ntxw wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png


The stuff in the gulf looks bogus to me from the GFS. No doubt a surge of moisture will come but it has been modelcaning South American spinups all week from the East coast to MX.

Now the waves off Africa are real on the Euro and more in line with what is out there.


Yep! That’s what has my interest. Steering looks scary imo.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1367 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:41 am

We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again :spam: I hate La Nina
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1368 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:44 am

Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again :spam: I hate La Nina


Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1369 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:52 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again :spam: I hate La Nina


Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.


We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1370 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:57 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again :spam: I hate La Nina


Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.


We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite


Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1371 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.


We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite


Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.

I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1372 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:08 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite


Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.

I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.


Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place :lol: I'm not even sure that storm is real
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1373 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:28 pm

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.

I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.


Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place :lol: I'm not even sure that storm is real


The concern always is if the open Atlantic/East coast start seeing tropical activity. It's almost surefire to put us in subsidence which is a drying trend.

Also we will be moving to the Fall thread next week!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1374 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:01 pm

Speaking of Hurricanes, the ensembles and some runs of the OPs that develop the Atlantic system pulls the trough east from the Aleutians-GOA to Western NW North America. That'll bring the ridge back into the middle of the US.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1375 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 27, 2022 3:06 pm

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1376 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Aug 27, 2022 4:49 pm

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1377 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:49 pm

Received a couple of heavier showers tonight with random pop-ups in my area, just about stationary where they form and fizzle out.

Got between 0.25" and 0.5" so far. There is an Areal Flood Advisory just to my north. Stationary cell. I feel fortunate!
:rain: :rain: :lightning: :rain:

Update: Round 3! Steady hard rain. Sweet spot!
I'll check total in the morning.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1378 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:03 am

I got 3" last night!! :D

Highly localized over Cedar Park/far north Austin. Kept redeveloping right over us!

Most of it soaked in. And this isn't even the main event! Very thankful!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1379 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.


Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place :lol: I'm not even sure that storm is real


The concern always is if the open Atlantic/East coast start seeing tropical activity. It's almost surefire to put us in subsidence which is a drying trend.

Also we will be moving to the Fall thread next week!


I don’t see that happening, at least not anytime real soon. Ridging looks pretty stout along the EC. I’m actually favoring a w or wsw bend with 91L through either the northern Caribbean or SFL and probably a splashdown into the Gulf.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1380 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:51 pm

Surprise severe storm just NE of Norman, OK
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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