Texas Summer 2022

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5416
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#881 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:04 pm

Happy hour GFS hitting the sauce a little too hard!

Image
5 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#882 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:05 pm

104F today. That is the 39th day. Tomorrow will be the 40th, milestone.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#883 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:104F today. That is the 39th day. Tomorrow will be the 40th, milestone.


60% chance of rain Friday for the Houston area. Hopefully it pans out.
4 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#884 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:104F today. That is the 39th day. Tomorrow will be the 40th, milestone.


60% chance of rain Friday for the Houston area. Hopefully it pans out.


It's going to be nice to talk about the last consecutive 100+ degree day. Fortunately, it will be here soon. Cold fronts are hopefully not too far into the future.
2 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#885 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:20 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:104F today. That is the 39th day. Tomorrow will be the 40th, milestone.


60% chance of rain Friday for the Houston area. Hopefully it pans out.


Wish you guys luck! At least somewhere there's a chance.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#886 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:15 pm

That almanac normal precip is hilarious.
1 likes   

cstrunk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#887 Postby cstrunk » Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:45 am

Today should be the last 100F for at least a little while in Longview, with mid-90's in the forecast every day after. And very slight chances for rain. My lawn is crunchy brown.
1 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8071
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#888 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:18 am

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Upper level ridge of high pressure over the SW US will begin to shift northward allowing a mid level trough over coastal Louisiana to move westward.

Upcoming upper air pattern will usher in some of the best rain chances the area has seen in a long while. As the near semi-permanent upper ridge over the SW US moves to our north over the next few days, a mid level low/trough over coastal LA will move westward and into the upper TX coast Friday/Saturday. This feature has produced numerous slow moving showers and thunderstorms over southern LA the last few days with copious rainfall amounts. Moisture begins to increase from the east this afternoon and when combined with heating, showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the sea/bay breeze boundaries especially in Chambers, Galveston, SE Harris, and Liberty Counties. Subsidence aloft still is in place to the north and west so these storms likely wont survive into the far inland areas.

Mid level trough/low moves toward the Sabine River area on Friday and moisture will greatly increase over SE TX. PWS increase into the 2.0-2.3 range and the forecast soundings show an increasingly saturated profile. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop near the coast and offshore before/near daybreak and then begin to move inland with heating. Given the tropical air mass flowing into the region it will not take much heating (upper 80’s/low 90’s) to get storms going. Additionally, with the moisture profile in place on Friday, rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per an hour will be possible. Area remains in a favorable tropical air mass and eastern flank of mid level trough/low as it moves westward on Saturday and expect another active day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms near the coast in the morning and spreading inland through the day.

There is a decent chance that most areas will see some rainfall over the next 48 hours and this will greatly help mitigate the ongoing fire weather issues across the region.

Rain chances will continue into next week with lingering favorable moisture levels and the ridge having backed away from the area, so expect a decently active seabreeze each afternoon. Several global models show a strong shortwave moving through the upper Midwest early to mid next week and a frontal boundary dropping south into SE TX and even the northern Gulf by the middle of next week. It would be rare for a front to make it this far south this time of year, but even if it can get close this would help keep rain chances going well into the middle of next week. I have my doubts this front makes it as far south as the models indicate.

Fire Weather:
The last few days have featured numerous fire starts and rapid spread across the state with gusty winds and low humidity and background state critically dry vegetation. 315 acre grass fire yesterday afternoon near Damon (Brazoria County) continues to indicate the critical fuel load situation across the region. We desperately need widespread wetting rainfall to help mitigate the ongoing fire weather conditions. Luckily, with increasing moisture today, humidity values likely will not mix out as much this afternoon (closer to 40-50%) instead of the 25-35% the last few days. Additionally, winds will not be as gusty as previous days, but still in the 10-15mph range by mid to late afternoon.

The following below is some of the average KBD Values for counties in SE TX:

Values of 550 tend to indicate critical fire conditions and values over 700 severe. This index can also be used as a soil moisture determination with values of 100=1 inch below the soil surface is completely void of moisture. A value of 700 would indicate there is no moisture in the soil in the top 7 inches below the surface. Medium and large fuels (brush and trees) begin to exhibit stress when values exceed 600 for an extended period of time.

Brazos: 775
Washington: 759
Walker: 757
San Jacinto: 748
Montgomery: 733
Colorado: 718
Wharton: 712
Fort Bend: 680
Galveston: 675
Harris: 682
Liberty: 693
Matagorda: 703

KBDI
Image

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
0 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5416
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#889 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:59 pm

DFW busted low of the 104F forecast but still manage to hit 100F. FWD indicating that 100s might be a bit harder to come by next week, so that is the first sign of some hope. Climo will start working in our favor by mid-month, however, we still need something to shake up this pattern. As far as pattern change, starting to see some chatter out there that the tropical watchers are getting nervous that the current pattern will continue to hold on (which would continue to be unfavorable for the tropics).
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#890 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:53 pm

Cloud cover made the difference today. Generally do agree the worst of the heat is probably behind us now. But still stagnant pattern overall. The drought situation continues to get worst and not better, however.

Image
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4172
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#891 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:36 pm

Been in Hawaii for a week. Seen rain forests and deserts, and temps at 83 degrees, and as low as 45 degrees on way up to Mauna Kea. We couldn't go ro 14,000 feet because they said there were snow flurries at the top, in August, on a tropical island!lol. Worried about ice on roads. It rained on us the way up for a long time, on the dry side of the island. So cool and pretty here! I don't want to come back. I have another week here.
5 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1735
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#892 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:Cloud cover made the difference today. Generally do agree the worst of the heat is probably behind us now. But still stagnant pattern overall. The drought situation continues to get worst and not better, however.

https://i.imgur.com/j5MYvql.gif

I really hope so. I can’t take much more of this 107-110 every single day, day after day.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#893 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:16 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Cloud cover made the difference today. Generally do agree the worst of the heat is probably behind us now. But still stagnant pattern overall. The drought situation continues to get worst and not better, however.

https://i.imgur.com/j5MYvql.gif

I really hope so. I can’t take much more of this 107-110 every single day, day after day.


It's really getting rough now. I discovered 2 trees today (about 5-7 years old) dying from the severe drought. There's a decent chance of storms tomorrow for my area, but I haven't had much rain at all this year. Normal rainfall for me should be around 40 inches right now, but it's less than 20. I am going to be so thankful when our ponds are full again. They are currently down about 3 feet and rapidly dropping.
3 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#894 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:14 pm

No clouds today for NTX, low to mid 100s shouldn't be too difficult.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


cstrunk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#895 Postby cstrunk » Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:16 pm

A few days ago, today's high in Longview was supposed to be 91F. Then it was raised to 94F. Then 97F is still the forecasted high for today. It's already 98F as of 1 pm and we may challenge 100F, although cumulous clouds are building in pretty quickly. Hopefully I can score some rain this afternoon/evening.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8071
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#896 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:01 pm

Lots of rain across SE Texas today but I can’t get a drop of rain to save my life (or our forests)! Another bust for me!
0 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#897 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:08 pm

jasons2k wrote:Lots of rain across SE Texas today but I can’t get a drop of rain to save my life (or our forests)! Another bust for me!


If the Euro is right, you might get more rain than you want later this month. It shows a cutoff low forming over the South moving west towards Texas slowly. Last run showed it too, but this run is a lot closer to us.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#898 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:00 pm

jasons2k wrote:Lots of rain across SE Texas today but I can’t get a drop of rain to save my life (or our forests)! Another bust for me!


Got nothing today as well.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#899 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:52 pm

Very long range ensembles show ridges in the Pac NW and Northeast of the continent. We need it, please! Even if it doesn't pan out, at least it is something vs the same ole stuff showing.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#900 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:12 pm

Ntxw wrote:Very long range ensembles show ridges in the Pac NW and Northeast of the continent. We need it, please! Even if it doesn't pan out, at least it is something vs the same ole stuff showing.


CPC 3-4 week outlook looks interesting.
1 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 42 guests